diff --git "a/data/part_2/01b1f1f0d6589edc8eeb8d6f2a8b6c04.json" "b/data/part_2/01b1f1f0d6589edc8eeb8d6f2a8b6c04.json" new file mode 100644--- /dev/null +++ "b/data/part_2/01b1f1f0d6589edc8eeb8d6f2a8b6c04.json" @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +{"metadata":{"id":"01b1f1f0d6589edc8eeb8d6f2a8b6c04","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://digitalarchive.worldfishcenter.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12348/1067/WF_3008.pdf"},"pageCount":70,"title":"Implications of climate change for contributions by fisheries and aquaculture to Pacific Island economies and communities","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"Introduction","index":1,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"Plans to increase contributions from industrial tuna fishing","index":2,"paragraphs":[]}],"figures":[{"text":" 7KURXJKRXW 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV 3,&7V WKHUH LV EURDG UHFRJQLWLRQ WKDW ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH PDNH YLWDO FRQWULEXWLRQV WR HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH IRRG VHFXULW\\ DQG OLYHOLKRRGV ² &KDSWHUV ² ,QGHHG WKH 3DFLÀF 3ODQ UHFRJQLVHV WKDW GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH UHJLRQ LV OLQNHG WR WKH HIIHFWLYH PDQDJHPHQW RI ÀVK DQG WKH KDELWDWV WKDW VXSSRUW WKHP ² ¶GHYHORSPHQW DQG LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI QDWLRQDO DQG UHJLRQDO FRQVHUYDWLRQ DQG PDQDJHPHQW PHDVXUHV IRU WKH VXVWDLQDEOH XVH RI ÀVKHULHV UHVRXUFHV• LV D SULRULW\\ RI WKH 3ODQ 7KH 3DFLÀF ,VODQG )RUXP /HDGHUV 9DYD•X 'HFODUDWLRQ ii UHLQIRUFHV WKH QHHG IRU UHVSRQVLEOH DQG HIIHFWLYH VWHZDUGVKLS RI WKH UHJLRQ•V ÀVKHULHV UHVRXUFHV 7KH REMHFWLYHV DQG VWUDWHJLHV RI ÀVKHULHV DJHQFLHV WKURXJKRXW WKH UHJLRQ DOVR UHSHDW WKH GHVLUH WR XVH ÀVK IRU WKH EHQHÀW RI SHRSOH ZLWKLQ WKH FRQWH[W RI VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQW ¶7KH )XWXUH RI 3DFLÀF ,VODQGV )LVKHULHV• VWXG\\ QRZ SURYLGHV D URDGPDS IRU KDUQHVVLQJ WKH SRWHQWLDO HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO EHQHÀWV RI ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH LQ WKH IDFH RI WKH PDQ\\ GULYHUV LQÁXHQFLQJ WKH VHFWRU 7KHVH GULYHUV LQFOXGH SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK XUEDQLVDWLRQ JOREDOLVDWLRQ RI PDUNHWV LQWHUQDWLRQDO WUDGH SROLFLHV WKH ZRUOG IRRG FULVLV DQG HFRQRPLF FRQVWUDLQWV ,W LV DOVR FOHDU WKDW WKH SODQV WR RSWLPLVH WKH EHQHÀWV RI ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH IRU WKH UHJLRQ DUH OLNHO\\ WR EH DIIHFWHG E\\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH &KDSWHUV ² +HUH ZH DVVHVV WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ RI HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH IRRG VXSSOLHV DQG OLYHOLKRRGV GHULYHG IURP ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG WKH LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU 3,&7V :H EHJLQ E\\ VXPPDULVLQJ WKH UHFHQW FRQWULEXWLRQV RI RFHDQLF FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH WR WKH UHJLRQ :H WKHQ H[SODLQ WKH SODQV 3,&7V KDYH WR RSWLPLVH WKHVH EHQHÀWV DQG FRQFOXGH E\\ DVVHVVLQJ WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ RI WKHVH SODQV WR WKH PDLQ SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ SURGXFWLRQ RI ÀVKHULHV UHVRXUFHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH GXH WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH IRU DQG XQGHU D ORZ % DQG KLJK $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV &KDSWHUV ² 7R SURYLGH DVVHVVPHQWV IRU WKH PHGLXP WHUP ZH KDYH XVHG WKH SURMHFWLRQV IRU % LQ DV D VXUURJDWH IRU $ LQ &KDSWHU ,Q DVVHVVLQJ WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ RI HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH ZH KDYH IRFXVHG PDLQO\\ RQ WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV WR VNLSMDFN WXQD EHFDXVH WKLV VSHFLHV GRPLQDWHV WKH FDWFKHV RI LQGXVWULDO ÁHHWV &KDSWHU )RU IRRG VHFXULW\\ ZH FRQFHQWUDWH RQ WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV WR FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV EHFDXVH WKH\\ FXUUHQWO\\ SURYLGH PRVW RI WKH ÀVK HDWHQ E\\ SHRSOH LQ 3DFLÀF FRPPXQLWLHV &KDSWHU 7KH SURMHFWHG HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ DOO ÀVKHULHV UHVRXUFHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH &KDSWHUV ² KDYH EHHQ FRQVLGHUHG LQ DVVHVVLQJ WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ RI OLYHOLKRRGV LL ZZZIRUXPVHFRUJIMSDJHVFIPGRFXPHQWVIRUXPUHVROXWLRQV LQ WKH :HVWHUQ DQG &HQWUDO 3DFLÀF 2FHDQ :&32 LV EDVHG RQ WKH IRXU VSHFLHV RI WXQD GHVFULEHG LQ &KDSWHU VNLSMDFN \\HOORZÀQ ELJH\\H DQG DOEDFRUH DQG LV FKDUDFWHULVHG E\\ ODUJH YHVVHOV RZQHG E\\ PDMRU ÀVKLQJ FRPSDQLHV IURP GLVWDQW ZDWHU ÀVKLQJ QDWLRQV ':)1V DQG IURP 3,&7V 0XFK RI WKH FDWFK LV PDUNHWHG E\\ PXOWLQDWLRQDO ÀVK WUDGLQJ FRUSRUDWLRQV 7KH DPRXQW RI WXQD FDXJKW LQ WKH :&32 KDV GRXEOHG RYHU WKH SDVW \\HDUV IURP PLOOLRQ WRQQHV LQ WR a PLOOLRQ WRQQHV LQ 7KLV JURZWK LV GXH PDLQO\\ WR DQ LQFUHDVH LQ WKH FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD $OWKRXJK WKH ÀVKHU\\ KDV DOZD\\V EHHQ GRPLQDWHG E\\ ÁHHWV IURP ':)1V WKH SHUFHQWDJH RI WKH WRWDO FDWFK WDNHQ E\\ GRPHVWLF DQG ORFDOO\\EDVHG YHVVHOV KDV LQFUHDVHG VXEVWDQWLDOO\\ LQ WKH ODVW FRXSOH RI GHFDGHV )LJXUH ,Q WKH WRWDO ODQGHG YDOXH RI FDWFKHV RI WKH IRXU PDLQ VSHFLHV RI WXQD IURP WKH :&32 ZDV HVWLPDWHG DW a 86' ELOOLRQ 2I WKLV WRQQHV ZRUWK 86' PLOOLRQ ZHUH FDXJKW E\\ ÀVKLQJ ÁHHWV IURP 3,&7V ,Q WKH YROXPH RI ÀVK SURFHVVHG ZLWKLQ 3,&7V ZDV WRQQHV UHSUHVHQWLQJ RI WKH FDWFK IURP WKH :&32 7KH WRWDO FDWFK RI WXQD LQ WKH :&32 FRPHV IURP WZR VHSDUDWH ÀVKHULHV D VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ WDUJHWLQJ VFKRROV RI VNLSMDFN DQG MXYHQLOH \\HOORZÀQ WXQD XVLQJ SXUVHVHLQH DQG SROHDQGOLQH ÀVKLQJ PHWKRGV WR VXSSO\\ FDQQHULHV LQ WKH 3DFLÀF $VLD DQG (XURSH DQG D ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ ZKLFK WDUJHWV PDWXUH ELJH\\H DQG \\HOORZÀQ WXQD IRU WKH -DSDQHVH VDVKLPL WUDGH DQG RWKHU KLJKYDOXH PDUNHWV DQG DOEDFRUH IRU FDQQLQJ LQ $PHULFDQ 6DPRD DQG )LML 0XFK RI WKH ÀVKLQJ RFFXUV ZLWKLQ WKH H[FOXVLYH HFRQRPLF ]RQHV ((=V RI 3,&7V EXW DOVR RQ WKH KLJK VHDV LQWHUQDWLRQDO ZDWHUV &KDSWHU 7KH FDWFKHV PDGH E\\ WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ LQ WKH :&32 DUH DURXQG WLPHV JUHDWHU WKDQ WKRVH PDGH E\\ WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ 7KLV WUHQG KDV DOVR RFFXUUHG IRU FDWFKHV ZLWKLQ WKH ((=V RI VHYHUDO 3,&7V LQ 0HODQHVLD DQG 0LFURQHVLD )LJXUH EHFDXVH WKHVH FRXQWULHV DUH ORFDWHG LQ WKH WURSLFDO ZDWHUV SUHIHUUHG E\\ WKH DEXQGDQW VNLSMDFN WXQD 7RWDO FDWFKHV E\\ ERWK ÀVKHULHV LQ 0HODQHVLD DQG 0LFURQHVLD DUH DQ RUGHU RI PDJQLWXGH KLJKHU WKDQ WKRVH LQ WKH FRROHU ZDWHUV RI 3RO\\QHVLD ZKHUH D JUHDWHU SHUFHQWDJH RI WKH ÀVK DUH FDXJKW E\\ ORQJOLQLQJ )LJXUH 12.2.1.1 Surface tuna fishery 9ROXPH DQG YDOXH &DWFKHV PDGH E\\ WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ LQ WKH :&32 DUH EDVHG KHDYLO\\ RQ SXUVHVHLQLQJ ² PRUH WKDQ RI WKH FDWFK LV QRZ ODQGHG E\\ WKLV ÀVKLQJ PHWKRG 6NLSMDFN WXQD PDNH XS a RI WKH SXUVHVHLQH FDWFK DQG ! RI WKH SROHDQGOLQH FDWFK 10,000 a PNG460110 440 2707 4000 855053.332.585.8> 10,000 a Solomon Islands 464 66 107 422 330 827 29.1 31.8 61.0 Solomon Islands4646610742233082729.131.861.0 Vanuatu 54 20 30 30 30 30 21.4 39.8 61.1 Vanuatu54203030303021.439.861.1 Micronesia Micronesia FSM 89 36 25 131 24 140 47.9 4.6 52.5 FSM8936251312414047.94.652.5 Guam Undetermined number of jobs nea nea nea GuamUndetermined number of jobsneaneanea Kiribati 39 15 15 47 80 70 33.3 24.8 58.1 Kiribati39151547807033.324.858.1 Marshall Islands* 5 0 25 457 100 116 36.0 17.6 53.6 Marshall Islands*502545710011636.017.653.6 Nauru 5 0 0 10 2 0 4.9 17.1 22.0 nea Nauru50010204.917.122.0nea CNMI Undetermined number of jobs nea nea nea CNMIUndetermined number of jobsneaneanea Palau 1 0 0 11 5 20 10.2 15.7 25.9 Palau1001152010.215.725.9 Polynesia Polynesia American Samoa** nea nea nea nea 4757 nea nea nea nea American Samoa** neanea neanea 4757neaneaneanea Cook Islands 50 15 12 15 15 10 12.3 7.8 20.1 Cook Islands50151215151012.37.820.1 French Polynesia Undetermined number of jobs 15.4 11.3 26.7 French PolynesiaUndetermined number of jobs15.411.326.7 Niue 5 0 0 0 14 18 1.4 8.7 10.1 Niue500014181.48.710.1 Pitcairn Islands No jobs based on tuna nea nea nea Pitcairn IslandsNo jobs based on tunaneaneanea Samoa 674 110 255 108 90 40 24.2 26.6 50.8 Samoa674110 255108904024.226.650.8 Tokelau No jobs based on tuna nea nea nea TokelauNo jobs based on tunaneaneanea Tonga 161 75 45 85 35 35 41.5 4.7 46.2 Tonga161754585353541.54.746.2 Tuvalu 59 20 65 36 10 10 24.0 24.4 48.4 Tuvalu59206536101024.024.448.4 Wallis and Futuna No jobs based on tuna 21.1 23.2 44.3 Wallis and FutunaNo jobs based on tuna21.123.244.3 Total (average) 2959 797 1169 5555 11,692 11,116 (27.6) (19.8) (47.4) 17,323 Total (average)2959 797 1169 5555 11,692 11,116 (27.6)(19.8) (47.4)17,323 "},{"text":"12.5 Vulnerability of plans for economic development and government revenue 7KH VXEVWDQWLDO HFRQRPLF EHQHÀWV GHULYHG IURP RFHDQLF ÀVKHULHV E\\ 3,&7V DQG WKH SODQV WR VXVWDLQ DQG H[SDQG WKRVH EHQHÀWV DUH H[SHFWHG WR EH DIIHFWHG E\\ WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ SURGXFWLYLW\\ RI WXQD GHVFULEHG LQ &KDSWHU +HUH ZH XVH WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ IUDPHZRUN RXWOLQHG LQ &KDSWHU DQG DSSOLHG ZLGHO\\ WR ÀVKHULHV HOVHZKHUH "},{"text":"1 Vulnerability of economies to changes in the surface tuna fishery 7DEOH 3URMHFWHG SHUFHQWDJH FKDQJHV LQ FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN DQG ELJH\\H WXQD UHODWLYH WR WKH \\HDU DYHUDJH IRU ² XQGHU WKH % DQG $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV LQ DQG GHULYHG IURP WKH 6($32'<0 PRGHO GHVFULEHG LQ &KDSWHU 8QGHU WKH % DQG $ VFHQDULR LQ WKH HFRQRP\\ RI .LULEDWL LV SURMHFWHG WR UHFHLYH WKH JUHDWHVW UHODWLYH EHQHÀW IURP FKDQJHV LQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG DEXQGDQFH RI VNLSMDFN WXQD 7DEOH .LULEDWL KDV D UHODWLYHO\\ KLJK H[SRVXUH WR LQFUHDVHG FDWFKHV 7DEOH DQG LV KLJKO\\ VHQVLWLYH EHFDXVH DFFHVV IHHV SDLG E\\ ':)1V FRQWULEXWH ! RI JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH 7DEOH $OWKRXJK WKH SRWHQWLDO EHQHÀW IRU .LULEDWL LQ LV WKH KLJKHVW IRU DQ\\ 3,&7 LW LV VRPHZKDW FRQVWUDLQHG E\\ D UHODWLYHO\\ ORZ DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ xv . 3URMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ DUH DOVR H[SHFWHG WR KDYH D UHODWLYHO\\ KLJK SRVLWLYH HIIHFW RQ WKH VPDOO HFRQRP\\ RI 7RNHODX IRU VLPLODU UHDVRQV DOWKRXJK 7RNHODX KDV D KLJKHU H[SRVXUH 7DEOH DQG D ORZHU VHQVLWLYLW\\ 7DEOH WKDQ .LULEDWL 7KH HFRQRPLHV RI 1DXUX DQG 7XYDOX DUH DOVR OLNHO\\ WR EH TXLWH ZHOOSODFHG WR EHQHÀW IURP WKH LQFUHDVHG DEXQGDQFH RI VNLSMDFN LQ WKHLU ((=V E\\ ZLWK PRUH PRGHVW EHQHÀWV ÁRZLQJ WR 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV DQG )60 7DEOH 12.5 12.5 DYHUDJH FDWFK IRU ² &KDSWHU 7DEOH DV WKH LQGH[ RI H[SRVXUH RI WKH &RPPRQZHDOWK RI WKH 1RUWKHUQ 0DULDQD ,VODQGV &10, 1HZ &DOHGRQLD 1LXH ,VODQGV WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ LV UDWHG DV ORZ ZKHUHDV LW LV VWLOO YHU\\ ORZ IRU 31* 1DXUX DYHUDJH FDWFK IRU ² &KDSWHU 7DEOH DV WKH LQGH[ RI H[SRVXUH RI WKH &RPPRQZHDOWK RI WKH 1RUWKHUQ 0DULDQD ,VODQGV &10, 1HZ &DOHGRQLD 1LXH ,VODQGV WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ LV UDWHG DV ORZ ZKHUHDV LW LV VWLOO YHU\\ ORZ IRU 31* 1DXUX VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ XQGHU WKH % DQG $ VFHQDULRV LQ % LQ DQG $ LQ 3LWFDLUQ ,VODQGV DQG :DOOLV DQG )XWXQD ZHUH QRW FRQVLGHUHG HYHQ WKRXJK FDQQHULHV DQG 3DODX 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH SRVLWLYH HIIHFWV IRU 7RNHODX LQFUHDVH IURP KLJK WR VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ XQGHU WKH % DQG $ VFHQDULRV LQ % LQ DQG $ LQ 3LWFDLUQ ,VODQGV DQG :DOOLV DQG )XWXQD ZHUH QRW FRQVLGHUHG HYHQ WKRXJK FDQQHULHV DQG 3DODX 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH SRVLWLYH HIIHFWV IRU 7RNHODX LQFUHDVH IURP KLJK WR 3URMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ FDWFK DUH SRVLWLYH IRU DOO 3,&7V LQ KRZHYHU GHSHQGLQJ RQ PDNH D JUHDW FRQWULEXWLRQ WR *'3 LQ $PHULFDQ 6DPRD 6HFWLRQ 1LXH DQG YHU\\ KLJK 7DEOH 3URMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ FDWFK DUH SRVLWLYH IRU DOO 3,&7V LQ KRZHYHU GHSHQGLQJ RQ PDNH D JUHDW FRQWULEXWLRQ WR *'3 LQ $PHULFDQ 6DPRD 6HFWLRQ 1LXH DQG YHU\\ KLJK 7DEOH WKH ORFDWLRQ RI WKH QDWLRQDO ((=V SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ FDWFK DUH SRVLWLYH RU QHJDWLYH Skipjack Bigeye 3LWFDLUQ ,VODQGV ZHUH QRW LQFOXGHG HLWKHU EHFDXVH QR HVWLPDWHV RI IXWXUH FKDQJHV LQ WKH ORFDWLRQ RI WKH QDWLRQDO ((=V SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ FDWFK DUH SRVLWLYH RU QHJDWLYH Skipjack Bigeye 3LWFDLUQ ,VODQGV ZHUH QRW LQFOXGHG HLWKHU EHFDXVH QR HVWLPDWHV RI IXWXUH FKDQJHV LQ 12.5.1.1 Calculating the vulnerability index $VVHVVLQJ WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ RI QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLHV WR WKH SRWHQWLDO HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ GHSHQGV PDLQO\\ RQ WKH SURMHFWLRQV IRU WKH DEXQGDQFH RI WKH VNLSMDFN WXQD WKDW GRPLQDWH WKH FDWFK [LLL :H XVHG WKH SURMHFWHG SHUFHQWDJH FKDQJHV LQ FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD ZLWKLQ WKH ((= RI D 3,&7 UHODWLYH WR WKH \\HDU E\\ 7DEOH 7R FRQVWUXFW DQ LQGH[ RI WKH VHQVLWLYLW\\ RI D QDWLRQDO HFRQRP\\ WR PICT B1/A2 2035 B1 2100* A2 2100 B1/A2 2035 B1 2100* A2 $OWKRXJK $PHULFDQ 6DPRD &RRN ,VODQGV )LML )UHQFK 3RO\\QHVLD DQG 9DQXDWX GR QRW VNLSMDFN LQ WKHLU ((=V ZHUH DYDLODEOH 2100 KDYH VLJQLÀFDQW VXUIDFH ÀVKHULHV 7DEOH DQG :DOOLV DQG )XWXQD GRHV QRW KDYH FKDQJHV LQ SURMHFWHG FDWFKHV E\\ WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ ZH XVHG WKH DYHUDJH SHUFHQWDJH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI WKH ÀVKHU\\ WR *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH 7DEOH 3RWHQWLDO LPSDFW 3, ZDV HVWLPDWHG E\\ PXOWLSO\\LQJ WKH H[SRVXUH LQGH[ ( E\\ WKH VHQVLWLYLW\\ LQGH[ 6 $OWKRXJK D EURDG UDQJH RI DSSURDFKHV DUH XVHG WR FRQVWUXFW YXOQHUDELOLW\\ LQGLFHV DQG DGGLWLYH DSSURDFKHV KDYH EHHQ XVHG LQ DQRWKHU EURDG DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ JOREDO ÀVKHULHV ZH PXOWLSOLHG ( [ 6 Melanesia Fiji +26 +24 +33 +1 +1 -1 New Caledonia +22 +19 +40 +1 +1 D VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ IRU WXQD ZLWKLQ LWV ((=V DW DOO WKHVH 3,&7V PD\\ EH LQ DQ LPSURYHG 12.5.1.2 Comparative vulnerability of economies SRVLWLRQ LQ WKH IXWXUH WR GHYHORS GRPHVWLF VXUIDFH ÀVKHULHV RU WR QHJRWLDWH DFFHVV IHHV +6 PNG +3 -11 -30 -4 -13 ZLWK ':)1V LI WKH\\ VR GHVLUH 7KHVH EHQHÀWV DUH H[SHFWHG DV D UHVXOW RI WKH H[SHFWHG -28 Solomon Islands +3 -5 -15 0 -3 FKDQJHV LQ GLVWULEXWLRQ RI VNLSMDFN WXQD &KDSWHU WKH SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ -7 Vanuatu +18 +15 +26 -3 -6 FDWFKHV IURP WKHLU ((=V 7DEOH DQG WKH UHODWLYHO\\ KLJK RU DW OHDVW PRGHUDWH -10 DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ RI WKHVH 3,&7V $SSHQGL[ Micronesia WR HVWLPDWH SRWHQWLDO LPSDFW 7KLV UHFRJQLVHG WKH YLWDO LPSRUWDQFH RI FRQWULEXWLRQV FSM +14 +5 -16 -3 -11 -32 7DEOH 5HODWLYH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ RU EHQHÀW IRU HFRQRPLHV RI 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV WR *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH WR WKH HFRQRPLHV RI VRPH 3,&7V DQG VXSSUHVVHG Guam +16 +10 -8 -7 -13 -33 DQG WHUULWRULHV 3,&7V WR SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ DQG ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ KLJK VFRUHV WKDW ZRXOG KDYH RFFXUUHG IRU 3,&7V ZKHUH FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN DUH SURMHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH VXEVWDQWLDOO\\ EXW ZKHUH WKH\\ FXUUHQWO\\ FRQWULEXWH OLWWOH WR WKH HFRQRP\\ %HFDXVH WKH SRWHQWLDO LPSDFW YDOXHV ZHUH ! DQG YDULHG ZLGHO\\ WKH\\ ZHUH Kiribati +37 +43 +24 -1 -5 IRU WXQD XQGHU WKH %$ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV IRU % IRU DQG $ IRU -17 Marshall Islands +24 +24 +10 -3 -10 6FRUHV KDYH EHHQ FODVVLÀHG DV YHU\\ ORZ ² ORZ ² PRGHUDWH ² -27 Nauru +25 +20 -1 -1 -7 KLJK ² RU YHU\\ KLJK ! 6HH 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOHV ² ZZZVSF -19 LQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQWFKDSWHUVVXSSWDEOHVSGI IRU WKH H[SRVXUH VWDQGDUGLVHG DQG QRUPDOLVHG WR UDQJH IURP WR ZLWK KLJKHU YDOXHV UHSUHVHQWLQJ CNMI +23 +22 +13 0 -5 -23 VHQVLWLYLW\\ SRWHQWLDO LPSDFW DQG DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ LQGLFHV XVHG WR FDOFXODWH WKH VFRUHV JUHDWHU SRWHQWLDO LPSDFW SDULW\\ ZH XVHG *'3 SHU SHUVRQ 7KH IRXU DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ LQGLFHV ZHUH VWDQGDUGLVHG DQG QRUPDOLVHG WR UDQJH EHWZHHQ DQG DQG WKHQ DYHUDJHG WR SURGXFH D FRPSRVLWH DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ LQGH[ $& $SSHQGL[ Palau +10 +2 -27 -4 -11 -45 Polynesia American Samoa +41 +48 +58 -5 -8 Surface fishery Longline fishery PICT B1/A2 2035 B1 2100 A2 2100 B1/A2 2035 B1 2100 A2 2100 -18 Cook Islands +40 +50 +47 -3 -8 -15 French Polynesia +41 +49 +77 -2 -8 -12 Niue nea nea nea -5 -8 -15 Pitcairn Islands nea nea nea -2 -4 -4 Samoa +44 +49 +55 +1 +1 -4 Tokelau +61 +69 +63 -3 -6 Melanesia 7KH HFRQRPLHV RI 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV KDYH YHU\\ ORZ SRVLWLYH VFRUHV UHODWLYH WR Fiji* -Very low -Very low -Very low WKH 3,&7V OLVWHG DERYH EHFDXVH FDWFKHV LQ WKHLU ((=V DUH SURMHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH RQO\\ New Caledonia* + Very low + Very low + Very low VOLJKWO\\ 7DEOH DQG GHVSLWH WKH IDFW WKDW FDWFKHV DUH ODUJH WKH WXQD LQGXVWU\\ PNG + Very low -Very low -Very low -Very low -Very low -Very low PDNHV UHODWLYHO\\ ORZ FRQWULEXWLRQV WR *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH 7DEOH Solomon Islands + Very low -Very low -Low -Very low -Very low -Very low $OWKRXJK FDWFKHV LQ WKH ((=V RI 3DODX DQG 9DQXDWX DUH SURMHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH E\\ Vanuatu + Very low + Very low + Very low -Very low -Very low -Very low -16 Tonga +47 +50 +58 -4 -5 ² E\\ DQG WKRVH LQ &RRN ,VODQGV 6DPRD DQG 7RQJD DUH H[SHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH Micronesia -10 Tuvalu +37 +41 +25 +3 +2 E\\ ! WKH HFRQRPLHV RI WKHVH 3,&7V DOVR KDYH YHU\\ ORZ SRVLWLYH VFRUHV LQ UHODWLYH FSM + Low + Very low -Low -Moderate -High -Moderate -6 Wallis and Futuna +44 +49 +46 0 0 WHUPV GXH WR WKH YHU\\ OLPLWHG FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ WR WKHLU HFRQRPLHV Kiribati + Very high + Very high + Very high -Moderate -Very high -Very high -7 7DEOH Marshall Islands + Low + Low + Low -High -Very high -Very high Regional Total fishery +19 +12 -7 +0.3 -9 Nauru** + Moderate + Moderate -Very low -27 Western fishery** +11 -0.2 -21 -2 -12 7KH UHODWLYH VFRUHV IRU WKH HFRQRPLHV RI WKHVH 3,&7V DUH JHQHUDOO\\ PDLQWDLQHG Palau + Very low + Very low -Very low -High -Very high -Very high -34 Eastern fishery*** +37 +43 +27 +3 -4 XQGHU WKH % VFHQDULR LQ HTXLYDOHQW WR $ LQ ZLWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI 31* Polynesia -18 DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV ZKLFK KDYH QHJDWLYH VFRUHV EHFDXVH FDWFKHV LQ WKHLU ((=V American Samoa* -Low -Low -Very low 9XOQHUDELOLW\\ ZDV FDOFXODWHG DV 3, PXOWLSOLHG E\\ $& [LY ,Q 3,&7V ZLWK D VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ ZKHUH WKH DEXQGDQFH RI VNLSMDFN LV SURMHFWHG WR GHFUHDVH $& ZDV LQYHUWHG $& 1RWH WKDW PRGHO VLPXODWLRQV IRU $ LQ KDYH EHHQ XVHG WR DSSUR[LPDWH % LQ LW LV DUH SURMHFWHG WR GHFUHDVH FRPSDUHG WR ² OHYHOV DQG )60 ZKHUH EHQHÀWV Cook Islands + Very low + Very low + Very low -Low -Moderate -Very low LPSRUWDQW WR QRWH KRZHYHU WKDW ZKLOH &2 HPLVVLRQV IRU WKHVH VFHQDULRVWLPHV DUH VLPLODU WKH PXOWLPRGHO PHDQ RI VHD VXUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUH LV & KLJKHU XQGHU % WKDQ $ DUH SURMHFWHG WR FKDQJH IURP ORZ WR YHU\\ ORZ 7DEOH +RZHYHU XQGHU WKH $ French Polynesia -Very low -Very low -Very low VR WKDW WKH 3,&7 ZLWK WKH JUHDWHVW DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ KDG UHGXFHG YXOQHUDELOLW\\ WR 1²6 DQG ²( 1²6 DQG (²: QHD QR HVWLPDWH DYDLODEOH VFHQDULR LQ WKH VLWXDWLRQ FKDQJHV FRQVLGHUDEO\\ :LWK WKH OLNHOLKRRG WKDW VNLSMDFN Niue* -Very high -High -Moderate ORZHU FDWFKHV RI WXQD )RU 3,&7V ZKHUH VNLSMDFN FDWFKHV DUH SURMHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH WKH DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ LQGH[ ZDV UHWDLQHG DV FDOFXODWHG WR UHÁHFW WKH OLNHOLKRRG WKDW WKH 3,&7 ZLWK WKH JUHDWHVW DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ ZRXOG EH PRUH FDSDEOH RI PD[LPLVLQJ EHQHÀWV IURP WKH LQFUHDVHG UHVRXUFH ZLOO PRYH IXUWKHU HDVW DQG VRXWKHDVW LQWR 3RO\\QHVLD &KDSWHU 7DEOH WKH Samoa + Very low + Very low + Very low -Very low -Very low -Very low 9XOQHUDELOLW\\ RU SRWHQWLDO EHQHÀW ZDV HVWLPDWHG IRU WKH % DQG $ VFHQDULRV LQ HFRQRPLHV RI )60 1DXUX DQG 3DODX DUH H[SHFWHG WR MRLQ WKRVH RI 31* DQG 6RORPRQ Tokelau** + High + High + Very high LQ ZKLFK H[SRVXUH WR FKDQJHV LQ DEXQGDQFH RI VNLSMDFN LV VLPLODU &KDSWHU IRU % ,VODQGV LQ KDYLQJ LQFUHDVHG YXOQHUDELOLW\\ WR QHJDWLYH HFRQRPLF LPSDFWV IURP WKH Tonga + Very low + Very low + Very low -Very low -Very low -Very low LQ DQG IRU $ LQ SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV LQ VNLSMDFN FDWFKHV 7DEOH ,Q WKH FDVH RI )60 DQG 6RORPRQ Tuvalu + Moderate + Moderate + Moderate -Low -Low -Very low 12.5.1.1 Calculating the vulnerability index $VVHVVLQJ WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ RI QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLHV WR WKH SRWHQWLDO HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ GHSHQGV PDLQO\\ RQ WKH SURMHFWLRQV IRU WKH DEXQGDQFH RI WKH VNLSMDFN WXQD WKDW GRPLQDWH WKH FDWFK [LLL :H XVHG WKH SURMHFWHG SHUFHQWDJH FKDQJHV LQ FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD ZLWKLQ WKH ((= RI D 3,&7 UHODWLYH WR WKH \\HDU E\\ 7DEOH 7R FRQVWUXFW DQ LQGH[ RI WKH VHQVLWLYLW\\ RI D QDWLRQDO HFRQRP\\ WR PICT B1/A2 2035 B1 2100* A2 2100 B1/A2 2035 B1 2100* A2 $OWKRXJK $PHULFDQ 6DPRD &RRN ,VODQGV )LML )UHQFK 3RO\\QHVLD DQG 9DQXDWX GR QRW VNLSMDFN LQ WKHLU ((=V ZHUH DYDLODEOH 2100 KDYH VLJQLÀFDQW VXUIDFH ÀVKHULHV 7DEOH DQG :DOOLV DQG )XWXQD GRHV QRW KDYH FKDQJHV LQ SURMHFWHG FDWFKHV E\\ WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ ZH XVHG WKH DYHUDJH SHUFHQWDJH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI WKH ÀVKHU\\ WR *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH 7DEOH 3RWHQWLDO LPSDFW 3, ZDV HVWLPDWHG E\\ PXOWLSO\\LQJ WKH H[SRVXUH LQGH[ ( E\\ WKH VHQVLWLYLW\\ LQGH[ 6 $OWKRXJK D EURDG UDQJH RI DSSURDFKHV DUH XVHG WR FRQVWUXFW YXOQHUDELOLW\\ LQGLFHV DQG DGGLWLYH DSSURDFKHV KDYH EHHQ XVHG LQ DQRWKHU EURDG DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ JOREDO ÀVKHULHV ZH PXOWLSOLHG ( [ 6 Melanesia Fiji +26 +24 +33 +1 +1 -1 New Caledonia +22 +19 +40 +1 +1 D VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ IRU WXQD ZLWKLQ LWV ((=V DW DOO WKHVH 3,&7V PD\\ EH LQ DQ LPSURYHG 12.5.1.2 Comparative vulnerability of economies SRVLWLRQ LQ WKH IXWXUH WR GHYHORS GRPHVWLF VXUIDFH ÀVKHULHV RU WR QHJRWLDWH DFFHVV IHHV +6 PNG +3 -11 -30 -4 -13 ZLWK ':)1V LI WKH\\ VR GHVLUH 7KHVH EHQHÀWV DUH H[SHFWHG DV D UHVXOW RI WKH H[SHFWHG -28 Solomon Islands +3 -5 -15 0 -3 FKDQJHV LQ GLVWULEXWLRQ RI VNLSMDFN WXQD &KDSWHU WKH SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ -7 Vanuatu +18 +15 +26 -3 -6 FDWFKHV IURP WKHLU ((=V 7DEOH DQG WKH UHODWLYHO\\ KLJK RU DW OHDVW PRGHUDWH -10 DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ RI WKHVH 3,&7V $SSHQGL[ Micronesia WR HVWLPDWH SRWHQWLDO LPSDFW 7KLV UHFRJQLVHG WKH YLWDO LPSRUWDQFH RI FRQWULEXWLRQV FSM +14 +5 -16 -3 -11 -32 7DEOH 5HODWLYH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ RU EHQHÀW IRU HFRQRPLHV RI 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV WR *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH WR WKH HFRQRPLHV RI VRPH 3,&7V DQG VXSSUHVVHG Guam +16 +10 -8 -7 -13 -33 DQG WHUULWRULHV 3,&7V WR SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ DQG ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ KLJK VFRUHV WKDW ZRXOG KDYH RFFXUUHG IRU 3,&7V ZKHUH FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN DUH SURMHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH VXEVWDQWLDOO\\ EXW ZKHUH WKH\\ FXUUHQWO\\ FRQWULEXWH OLWWOH WR WKH HFRQRP\\ %HFDXVH WKH SRWHQWLDO LPSDFW YDOXHV ZHUH ! DQG YDULHG ZLGHO\\ WKH\\ ZHUH Kiribati +37 +43 +24 -1 -5 IRU WXQD XQGHU WKH %$ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV IRU % IRU DQG $ IRU -17 Marshall Islands +24 +24 +10 -3 -10 6FRUHV KDYH EHHQ FODVVLÀHG DV YHU\\ ORZ ² ORZ ² PRGHUDWH ² -27 Nauru +25 +20 -1 -1 -7 KLJK ² RU YHU\\ KLJK ! 6HH 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOHV ² ZZZVSF -19 LQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQWFKDSWHUVVXSSWDEOHVSGI IRU WKH H[SRVXUH VWDQGDUGLVHG DQG QRUPDOLVHG WR UDQJH IURP WR ZLWK KLJKHU YDOXHV UHSUHVHQWLQJ CNMI +23 +22 +13 0 -5 -23 VHQVLWLYLW\\ SRWHQWLDO LPSDFW DQG DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ LQGLFHV XVHG WR FDOFXODWH WKH VFRUHV JUHDWHU SRWHQWLDO LPSDFW SDULW\\ ZH XVHG *'3 SHU SHUVRQ 7KH IRXU DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ LQGLFHV ZHUH VWDQGDUGLVHG DQG QRUPDOLVHG WR UDQJH EHWZHHQ DQG DQG WKHQ DYHUDJHG WR SURGXFH D FRPSRVLWH DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ LQGH[ $& $SSHQGL[ Palau +10 +2 -27 -4 -11 -45 Polynesia American Samoa +41 +48 +58 -5 -8 Surface fishery Longline fishery PICT B1/A2 2035 B1 2100 A2 2100 B1/A2 2035 B1 2100 A2 2100 -18 Cook Islands +40 +50 +47 -3 -8 -15 French Polynesia +41 +49 +77 -2 -8 -12 Niue nea nea nea -5 -8 -15 Pitcairn Islands nea nea nea -2 -4 -4 Samoa +44 +49 +55 +1 +1 -4 Tokelau +61 +69 +63 -3 -6 Melanesia 7KH HFRQRPLHV RI 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV KDYH YHU\\ ORZ SRVLWLYH VFRUHV UHODWLYH WR Fiji* -Very low -Very low -Very low WKH 3,&7V OLVWHG DERYH EHFDXVH FDWFKHV LQ WKHLU ((=V DUH SURMHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH RQO\\ New Caledonia* + Very low + Very low + Very low VOLJKWO\\ 7DEOH DQG GHVSLWH WKH IDFW WKDW FDWFKHV DUH ODUJH WKH WXQD LQGXVWU\\ PNG + Very low -Very low -Very low -Very low -Very low -Very low PDNHV UHODWLYHO\\ ORZ FRQWULEXWLRQV WR *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH 7DEOH Solomon Islands + Very low -Very low -Low -Very low -Very low -Very low $OWKRXJK FDWFKHV LQ WKH ((=V RI 3DODX DQG 9DQXDWX DUH SURMHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH E\\ Vanuatu + Very low + Very low + Very low -Very low -Very low -Very low -16 Tonga +47 +50 +58 -4 -5 ² E\\ DQG WKRVH LQ &RRN ,VODQGV 6DPRD DQG 7RQJD DUH H[SHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH Micronesia -10 Tuvalu +37 +41 +25 +3 +2 E\\ ! WKH HFRQRPLHV RI WKHVH 3,&7V DOVR KDYH YHU\\ ORZ SRVLWLYH VFRUHV LQ UHODWLYH FSM + Low + Very low -Low -Moderate -High -Moderate -6 Wallis and Futuna +44 +49 +46 0 0 WHUPV GXH WR WKH YHU\\ OLPLWHG FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ WR WKHLU HFRQRPLHV Kiribati + Very high + Very high + Very high -Moderate -Very high -Very high -7 7DEOH Marshall Islands + Low + Low + Low -High -Very high -Very high Regional Total fishery +19 +12 -7 +0.3 -9 Nauru** + Moderate + Moderate -Very low -27 Western fishery** +11 -0.2 -21 -2 -12 7KH UHODWLYH VFRUHV IRU WKH HFRQRPLHV RI WKHVH 3,&7V DUH JHQHUDOO\\ PDLQWDLQHG Palau + Very low + Very low -Very low -High -Very high -Very high -34 Eastern fishery*** +37 +43 +27 +3 -4 XQGHU WKH % VFHQDULR LQ HTXLYDOHQW WR $ LQ ZLWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI 31* Polynesia -18 DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV ZKLFK KDYH QHJDWLYH VFRUHV EHFDXVH FDWFKHV LQ WKHLU ((=V American Samoa* -Low -Low -Very low 9XOQHUDELOLW\\ ZDV FDOFXODWHG DV 3, PXOWLSOLHG E\\ $& [LY ,Q 3,&7V ZLWK D VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ ZKHUH WKH DEXQGDQFH RI VNLSMDFN LV SURMHFWHG WR GHFUHDVH $& ZDV LQYHUWHG $& 1RWH WKDW PRGHO VLPXODWLRQV IRU $ LQ KDYH EHHQ XVHG WR DSSUR[LPDWH % LQ LW LV DUH SURMHFWHG WR GHFUHDVH FRPSDUHG WR ² OHYHOV DQG )60 ZKHUH EHQHÀWV Cook Islands + Very low + Very low + Very low -Low -Moderate -Very low LPSRUWDQW WR QRWH KRZHYHU WKDW ZKLOH &2 HPLVVLRQV IRU WKHVH VFHQDULRVWLPHV DUH VLPLODU WKH PXOWLPRGHO PHDQ RI VHD VXUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUH LV & KLJKHU XQGHU % WKDQ $ DUH SURMHFWHG WR FKDQJH IURP ORZ WR YHU\\ ORZ 7DEOH +RZHYHU XQGHU WKH $ French Polynesia -Very low -Very low -Very low VR WKDW WKH 3,&7 ZLWK WKH JUHDWHVW DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ KDG UHGXFHG YXOQHUDELOLW\\ WR 1²6 DQG ²( 1²6 DQG (²: QHD QR HVWLPDWH DYDLODEOH VFHQDULR LQ WKH VLWXDWLRQ FKDQJHV FRQVLGHUDEO\\ :LWK WKH OLNHOLKRRG WKDW VNLSMDFN Niue* -Very high -High -Moderate ORZHU FDWFKHV RI WXQD )RU 3,&7V ZKHUH VNLSMDFN FDWFKHV DUH SURMHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH WKH DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ LQGH[ ZDV UHWDLQHG DV FDOFXODWHG WR UHÁHFW WKH OLNHOLKRRG WKDW WKH 3,&7 ZLWK WKH JUHDWHVW DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ ZRXOG EH PRUH FDSDEOH RI PD[LPLVLQJ EHQHÀWV IURP WKH LQFUHDVHG UHVRXUFH ZLOO PRYH IXUWKHU HDVW DQG VRXWKHDVW LQWR 3RO\\QHVLD &KDSWHU 7DEOH WKH Samoa + Very low + Very low + Very low -Very low -Very low -Very low 9XOQHUDELOLW\\ RU SRWHQWLDO EHQHÀW ZDV HVWLPDWHG IRU WKH % DQG $ VFHQDULRV LQ HFRQRPLHV RI )60 1DXUX DQG 3DODX DUH H[SHFWHG WR MRLQ WKRVH RI 31* DQG 6RORPRQ Tokelau** + High + High + Very high LQ ZKLFK H[SRVXUH WR FKDQJHV LQ DEXQGDQFH RI VNLSMDFN LV VLPLODU &KDSWHU IRU % ,VODQGV LQ KDYLQJ LQFUHDVHG YXOQHUDELOLW\\ WR QHJDWLYH HFRQRPLF LPSDFWV IURP WKH Tonga + Very low + Very low + Very low -Very low -Very low -Very low LQ DQG IRU $ LQ SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV LQ VNLSMDFN FDWFKHV 7DEOH ,Q WKH FDVH RI )60 DQG 6RORPRQ Tuvalu + Moderate + Moderate + Moderate -Low -Low -Very low [LL ZZZVSFLQWSULVP VXSSWDEOHVSGI RSHUDWLRQV DORQH 7DEOH 7KXV $PHULFDQ 6DPRD )LML )UHQFK 3RO\\QHVLD *XDP [LLL 6HH 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOH ZZZVSFLQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQWFKDSWHUV :H OLPLWHG WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ DQDO\\VHV WR WKRVH 3,&7V ZKHUH WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ FRQWULEXWHV DW OHDVW WR HLWKHU *'3 DQGRU JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH EDVHG RQ ÀVKLQJ 3,&7V ZKHUH WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ FRQWULEXWHV RI JURVV GRPHVWLF SURGXFW *'3 3,&7V [Y 6HH 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOH ZZZVSFLQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQWFKDSWHUV VXSSWDEOHVSGI ZKHUH WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ FRQWULEXWHV RI *'3 [LL ZZZVSFLQWSULVP VXSSWDEOHVSGI RSHUDWLRQV DORQH 7DEOH 7KXV $PHULFDQ 6DPRD )LML )UHQFK 3RO\\QHVLD *XDP [LLL 6HH 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOH ZZZVSFLQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQWFKDSWHUV :H OLPLWHG WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ DQDO\\VHV WR WKRVH 3,&7V ZKHUH WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ FRQWULEXWHV DW OHDVW WR HLWKHU *'3 DQGRU JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH EDVHG RQ ÀVKLQJ 3,&7V ZKHUH WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ FRQWULEXWHV RI JURVV GRPHVWLF SURGXFW *'3 3,&7V [Y 6HH 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOH ZZZVSFLQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQWFKDSWHUV VXSSWDEOHVSGI ZKHUH WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ FRQWULEXWHV RI *'3 "},{"text":".2 Vulnerability of economies to changes in the longline tuna fishery $ OWKRXJK WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV WR *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH IURP WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ DUH XVXDOO\\ FRQVLGHUDEO\\ ORZHU WKDQ WKRVH IURP WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ WKH\\ DIIHFW HFRQRPLHV LQ D JUHDWHU QXPEHU RI 3,&7V 6HFWLRQ 7KH YXOQHUDELOLWLHV RI HFRQRPLHV WR SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ ZHUH FDOFXODWHG LQ WKH VDPH ZD\\ GHVFULEHG IRU WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ ,Q WKH DEVHQFH RI SURMHFWLRQV IRU \\HOORZÀQ WXQD DQG DOEDFRUH ZH EDVHG WKH H[SRVXUH LQGH[ RQ WKH SUHOLPLQDU\\ SURMHFWLRQV IRU FKDQJHV LQ DEXQGDQFH RI ELJH\\H WXQD ZLWKLQ WKH ((=V RI 3,&7V &KDSWHU 7DEOH 7KHVH SURMHFWLRQV DUH RQO\\ D SDUWLDO LQGLFDWRU RI H[SRVXUH EHFDXVH ELJH\\H WXQD PDGH XS RQO\\ a RI WKH WXQD FDXJKW E\\ WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ ZLWKLQ WKH ((=V RI 3,&7V LQ EXW RI WKH YDOXH 7KH VHQVLWLYLW\\ RI HFRQRPLHV WR FKDQJHV LQ SURMHFWHG FDWFKHV E\\ WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ ZDV HVWLPDWHG DV WKH DYHUDJH RI WKH SHUFHQWDJH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKH ÀVKHU\\ WR *'3 LQ DQG WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH LQ RU EH GRQH IRU \\HOORZÀQ WXQD DQG DOEDFRUH WKH WZR RWKHU VSHFLHV RI WXQD WDNHQ E\\ WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ WR GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU WKH YXOQHUDELOLWLHV RI HFRQRPLHV WR SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV LQ WKH FDWFKHV RI ELJH\\H WXQD DUH UHSUHVHQWDWLYH RI WKLV ÀVKHU\\ LQ JHQHUDO 6XFK PRGHOOLQJ LV QHHGHG WR GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU VRPH RI WKH SURMHFWHG EHQHÀWV IURP WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ IRU 3,&7V LQ 0LFURQHVLD DQG 3RO\\QHVLD DV VNLSMDFN WXQD PRYH HDVW FRXOG EH XQGHUPLQHG E\\ UHGXFHG FDWFKHV IURP ORQJOLQLQJ $Q\\ HIIHFWV RI WKLV W\\SH PD\\ EH UHODWLYHO\\ PLQRU KRZHYHU EHFDXVH WKH SRWHQWLDO HFRQRPLF EHQHÀWV IRU 3,&7V IURP HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI D VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ LQ WKHLU ((=V PLJKW UHDVRQDEO\\ EH H[SHFWHG WR RXWZHLJK ORVVHV IURP UHGXFHG ORQJOLQLQJ FDWFKHV 0RGHOOLQJ QHHGV WR 0RGHOOLQJ QHHGV WR [YL ZKLFKHYHU ZDV JUHDWHVW [YL ZKLFKHYHU ZDV JUHDWHVW 2QFH DJDLQ ZH OLPLWHG WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ DQDO\\VHV WR WKRVH 3,&7V ZKHUH WKH ORQJOLQH 2QFH DJDLQ ZH OLPLWHG WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ DQDO\\VHV WR WKRVH 3,&7V ZKHUH WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ FRQWULEXWHG ! WR HLWKHU *'3 DQGRU JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH EDVHG RQ ÀVKHU\\ FRQWULEXWHG ! WR HLWKHU *'3 DQGRU JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH EDVHG RQ ÀVKLQJ RSHUDWLRQV DORQH 7DEOH *XDP 1DXUX &10, 3LWFDLUQ ,VODQGV 7RNHODX ÀVKLQJ RSHUDWLRQV DORQH 7DEOH *XDP 1DXUX &10, 3LWFDLUQ ,VODQGV 7RNHODX DQG :DOOLV DQG )XWXQD ZHUH QRW LQFOXGHG DQG :DOOLV DQG )XWXQD ZHUH QRW LQFOXGHG 7KH SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV LQ FDWFKHV RI ELJH\\H WXQD XQGHU WKH % DQG $ VFHQDULRV 7KH SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV LQ FDWFKHV RI ELJH\\H WXQD XQGHU WKH % DQG $ VFHQDULRV LQ 7DEOH LQGLFDWH WKDW PRVW 3,&7V DUH OLNHO\\ WR EH YXOQHUDEOH WR ORVV RI LQ 7DEOH LQGLFDWH WKDW PRVW 3,&7V DUH OLNHO\\ WR EH YXOQHUDEOH WR ORVV RI HFRQRPLF EHQHÀWV IURP WKLV FRPSRQHQW RI WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ 6HYHUDO 3,&7V LQ HFRQRPLF EHQHÀWV IURP WKLV FRPSRQHQW RI WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ 6HYHUDO 3,&7V LQ 0LFURQHVLD DQG 3RO\\QHVLD KDYH UHODWLYHO\\ PRGHUDWH KLJK RU YHU\\ KLJK YXOQHUDELOLWLHV 0LFURQHVLD DQG 3RO\\QHVLD KDYH UHODWLYHO\\ PRGHUDWH KLJK RU YHU\\ KLJK YXOQHUDELOLWLHV WR HFRQRPLF ORVVHV IURP UHGXFHG ELJH\\H FDWFKHV 7DEOH 7KH PRVW YXOQHUDEOH WR HFRQRPLF ORVVHV IURP UHGXFHG ELJH\\H FDWFKHV 7DEOH 7KH PRVW YXOQHUDEOH 3,&7V DUH 1LXH 3DODX DQG 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV EHFDXVH WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ FRQWULEXWHV 3,&7V DUH 1LXH 3DODX DQG 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV EHFDXVH WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ FRQWULEXWHV a ² RI *'3 [YL a ² RI *'3 [YL $V WKH SURMHFWHG FDWFKHV RI ELJH\\H WXQD GHFOLQH IXUWKHU XQGHU WKH % VFHQDULR LQ $V WKH SURMHFWHG FDWFKHV RI ELJH\\H WXQD GHFOLQH IXUWKHU XQGHU WKH % VFHQDULR LQ HTXLYDOHQW WR $ LQ 7DEOH WKH OHYHO RI YXOQHUDELOLW\\ LQFUHDVHV IRU DOO HTXLYDOHQW WR $ LQ 7DEOH WKH OHYHO RI YXOQHUDELOLW\\ LQFUHDVHV IRU DOO 3,&7V LQ 0LFURQHVLD DQG IRU &RRN ,VODQGV LQ 3RO\\QHVLD 7DEOH .LULEDWL KDV WKH 3,&7V LQ 0LFURQHVLD DQG IRU &RRN ,VODQGV LQ 3RO\\QHVLD 7DEOH .LULEDWL KDV WKH PRVW VLJQLÀFDQW LQFUHDVH LQ UHODWLYH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ XQGHU WKLV VFHQDULR IURP PRGHUDWH PRVW VLJQLÀFDQW LQFUHDVH LQ UHODWLYH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ XQGHU WKLV VFHQDULR IURP PRGHUDWH WR YHU\\ KLJK GXH WR WKH KLJK LPSDFW RI UHGXFHG FDWFKHV LQ LWV ((= DQG LWV PRGHVW WR YHU\\ KLJK GXH WR WKH KLJK LPSDFW RI UHGXFHG FDWFKHV LQ LWV ((= DQG LWV PRGHVW DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ 7KLV LV EHFDXVH .LULEDWL UHFHLYHV PRUH JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH IURP WKH DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ 7KLV LV EHFDXVH .LULEDWL UHFHLYHV PRUH JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH IURP WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ WKDQ RWKHU 3,&7V [YL 7KH UHODWLYH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ WR ORVVHV RI HFRQRPLF ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ WKDQ RWKHU 3,&7V [YL 7KH UHODWLYH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ WR ORVVHV RI HFRQRPLF EHQHÀWV RI 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV DQG 3DODX DOVR LQFUHDVHV WR YHU\\ KLJK GXH WR WKH UDSLG EHQHÀWV RI 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV DQG 3DODX DOVR LQFUHDVHV WR YHU\\ KLJK GXH WR WKH UDSLG LQFUHDVH LQ SRWHQWLDO LPSDFW [YLL DV D UHVXOW RI WKH ODUJH SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV LQ FDWFKHV RI LQFUHDVH LQ SRWHQWLDO LPSDFW [YLL DV D UHVXOW RI WKH ODUJH SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV LQ FDWFKHV RI ELJH\\H WXQD IURP WKH ORQJOLQH ÀVKHU\\ LQ WKHLU ((=V XQGHU WKH % HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULR ELJH\\H WXQD IURP WKH ORQJOLQH À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ÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQW [YL 6HH 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOH ZZZVSFLQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQW FKDSWHUVVXSSWDEOHVSGI FKDSWHUVVXSSWDEOHVSGI [YLL 6HH 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOHV DQG ZZZVSFLQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQW [YLL 6HH 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOHV DQG ZZZVSFLQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQW FKDSWHUVVXSSWDEOHVSGI FKDSWHUVVXSSWDEOHVSGI "},{"text":"12.6 Potential effects on economic development and government revenue from projected changes to the surface tuna fishery 7R DVVHVV WKH SRWHQWLDO HIIHFWV RI SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV WR WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ RQ WKH HFRQRPLHV RI 3,&7V ZH HVWLPDWHG WKH ORZHU DQG XSSHU ERXQGV RI SURMHFWHG FRQWULEXWLRQV WR *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH XQGHU WKH % DQG $ VFHQDULRV LQ % LQ DQG $ LQ 7KH UDQJH ZDV EDVHG RQ WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ HVWLPDWHV RI *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH GHULYHG IURP WKH VXUIDFH WXQD ÀVKHU\\ EHWZHHQ DQG 7KH HVWLPDWHV ZHUH DOVR EDVHG RQ WKH IROORZLQJ DVVXPSWLRQV ¾ 3URMHFWHG FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD DUH D JRRG LQGLFDWRU RI WKH HIIHFWV RI FKDQJHV WR WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ RQ QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLHV EHFDXVH ODQGLQJV RI VNLSMDFN GRPLQDWH WKLV ÀVKHU\\ 6HFWLRQ VODQGV .LULEDWL DQG 7XYDOX DUH SURMHFWHG WR FRQWLQXH WR UHFHLYH LQFUHDVHG HFRQRPLF EHQHÀWV XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR LQ DOEHLW DW ORZHU OHYHOV WKDQ IRU % DQG $ LQ RU XQGHU WKH % VFHQDULR LQ 7DEOH 2XU DQDO\\VLV LV UHVWULFWHG WR 3,&7V ZKHUH WKH DYHUDJH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKH VXUIDFH 2XU DQDO\\VLV LV UHVWULFWHG WR 3,&7V ZKHUH WKH DYHUDJH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ WR *'3 RU JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH ZDV ! RYHU WKH SHULRG ² RU ÀVKHU\\ WR *'3 RU JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH ZDV ! RYHU WKH SHULRG ² RU ZKHUH ODUJH TXDQWLWLHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD ZHUH WUDQVVKLSSHG RU SURFHVVHG 7KHVH ZKHUH ODUJH TXDQWLWLHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD ZHUH WUDQVVKLSSHG RU SURFHVVHG 7KHVH 3,&7V DUH 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV ZKHUH WXQD DUH FDXJKW DQG SURFHVVHG DQG 7DEOH &KDQJHV LQ SHUFHQWDJH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI RFHDQLF ÀVKHULHV WR *'3 DQG RU WUDQVVKLSSHG )60 .LULEDWL 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV 1DXUX 3DODX 7XYDOX DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXHV LQ 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV 3,&7V UHODWLYH WR 7RNHODX ZKHUH WXQD LV FDXJKW ZLWKLQ WKH ((= DQG $PHULFDQ 6DPRD ZKHUH WKHUH ² UHVXOWLQJ IURP SURMHFWHG DOWHUDWLRQV LQ WKH FDWFK RI VNLSMDFN WXQD LQ DQG 3,&7V DUH 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV ZKHUH WXQD DUH FDXJKW DQG SURFHVVHG DQG 7DEOH &KDQJHV LQ SHUFHQWDJH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI RFHDQLF ÀVKHULHV WR *'3 DQG RU WUDQVVKLSSHG )60 .LULEDWL 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV 1DXUX 3DODX 7XYDOX DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXHV LQ 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV 3,&7V UHODWLYH WR 7RNHODX ZKHUH WXQD LV FDXJKW ZLWKLQ WKH ((= DQG $PHULFDQ 6DPRD ZKHUH WKHUH ² UHVXOWLQJ IURP SURMHFWHG DOWHUDWLRQV LQ WKH FDWFK RI VNLSMDFN WXQD LQ DQG XQGHU % DQG $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV /RZHU / DQG XSSHU 8 OLPLWV IRU WKHVH DUH VLJQLÀFDQW SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV 7DEOH 7KH HVWLPDWHG LPSDFWV DUH EDVHG SURMHFWLRQV DUH HVWLPDWHG IRU HDFK VFHQDULR DQG VKRZQ IRU WKH SHULRG ² 2QO\\ RQ WKH SUHOLPLQDU\\ PRGHOOLQJ RI FDWFK YDULDWLRQV LQ WKH ((= RI HDFK 3,&7 7DEOH 3,&7V ZKHUH LQGXVWULDO ÀVKLQJ RU SURFHVVLQJ FRQWULEXWHV ! RI *'3 RU JRYHUQPHQW &KDSWHU +RZHYHU EHFDXVH WKH SRVWKDUYHVW SURFHVVLQJ VHFWRU LQ $PHULFDQ 6DPRD UHYHQXH DUH LQFOXGHG XQGHU % DQG $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV /RZHU / DQG XSSHU 8 OLPLWV IRU WKHVH DUH VLJQLÀFDQW SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV 7DEOH 7KH HVWLPDWHG LPSDFWV DUH EDVHG SURMHFWLRQV DUH HVWLPDWHG IRU HDFK VFHQDULR DQG VKRZQ IRU WKH SHULRG ² 2QO\\ RQ WKH SUHOLPLQDU\\ PRGHOOLQJ RI FDWFK YDULDWLRQV LQ WKH ((= RI HDFK 3,&7 7DEOH 3,&7V ZKHUH LQGXVWULDO ÀVKLQJ RU SURFHVVLQJ FRQWULEXWHV ! RI *'3 RU JRYHUQPHQW &KDSWHU +RZHYHU EHFDXVH WKH SRVWKDUYHVW SURFHVVLQJ VHFWRU LQ $PHULFDQ 6DPRD UHYHQXH DUH LQFOXGHG LV VXSSOLHG E\\ ÀVK FDXJKW WKURXJKRXW WKH ÀVKHU\\ WKH LPSDFWV RQ $PHULFDQ 6DPRD DUH LV VXSSOLHG E\\ ÀVK FDXJKW WKURXJKRXW WKH ÀVKHU\\ WKH LPSDFWV RQ $PHULFDQ 6DPRD DUH Change to GDP (%) EDVHG RQ WKH SURMHFWHG FDWFK YDULDWLRQV IRU WKH ÀVKHU\\ DV D ZKROH 7DEOH Change to government revenue (%) 7KH SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD E\\ VKRZ WKDW ODQGLQJV DUH PICT 1999-2008 (%) B1/A2 2035 B1* 2100 A2 2100 1999-B1/A2 B1* A2 2008 (%) 2035 2100 2100 Change to GDP (%) EDVHG RQ WKH SURMHFWHG FDWFK YDULDWLRQV IRU WKH ÀVKHU\\ DV D ZKROH 7DEOH Change to government revenue (%) 7KH SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD E\\ VKRZ WKDW ODQGLQJV DUH PICT 1999-2008 (%) B1/A2 2035 B1* 2100 A2 2100 1999-B1/A2 B1* A2 2008 (%) 2035 2100 2100 H[SHFWHG WR ULVH E\\ a DFURVV WKH ÀVKHU\\ GULYHQ E\\ VWURQJ LQFUHDVHV ! LQ L U L U L U L U L U L U L U L U H[SHFWHG WR ULVH E\\ a DFURVV WKH ÀVKHU\\ GULYHQ E\\ VWURQJ LQFUHDVHV ! LQ L U L U L U L U L U L U L U LU FDWFK LQ WKH HDVWHUQ SDUW RI WKH UHJLRQ DQG PRUH PRGHVW LQFUHDVHV a LQ FDWFKHV Melanesia FDWFK LQ WKH HDVWHUQ SDUW RI WKH UHJLRQ DQG PRUH PRGHVW LQFUHDVHV a LQ FDWFKHV Melanesia LQ WKH ZHVW 7DEOH 7KH H[SHFWHG LPSURYHPHQWV LQ FDWFK OHDG WR SURMHFWHG PNG 1.5 4 0 +0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 0.2 0.8 0 0 0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 LQ WKH ZHVW 7DEOH 7KH H[SHFWHG LPSURYHPHQWV LQ FDWFK OHDG WR SURMHFWHG PNG 1.5 4 0 +0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 0.2 0.8 0 0 0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 LQFUHDVHV LQ *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH E\\ SDUWLFXODUO\\ IRU WKRVH 3,&7V LQ Solomon Islands 2 5 +0.1 +0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 0.2 5 0 +0.2 0 -0.3 0 -0.8 LQFUHDVHV LQ *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH E\\ SDUWLFXODUO\\ IRU WKRVH 3,&7V LQ Solomon Islands 2 5 +0.1 +0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 0.2 5 0 +0.2 0 -0.3 0 -0.8 Micronesia WKH HDVW 7DEOH 7KH PRVW VLJQLÀFDQW SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV WR *'3 DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FSM 1.5 5 0 +1 0 0 0 -1 6 12 +1 +2 0 +1 -1 WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ FDWFK DUH IRU $PHULFDQ 6DPRD ² DQG 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV Kiribati 30 50 +11 +18 +13 +21 +7 +12 -2 ² 7KH JUHDWHVW H[SHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH DUH IRU .LULEDWL Marshall Islands 10 25 +2 +6 +2 +6 +1 +2 2 5 0 +1 0 +1 0 0 ² 7XYDOX ² 7RNHODX ² DQG 1DXUX ² 7DEOH Nauru 10 25 +2 +6 +2 +5 0 0 Micronesia WKH HDVW 7DEOH 7KH PRVW VLJQLÀFDQW SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV WR *'3 DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FSM 1.5 5 0 +1 0 0 0 -1 6 12 +1 +2 0 +1 -1 WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ FDWFK DUH IRU $PHULFDQ 6DPRD ² DQG 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV Kiribati 30 50 +11 +18 +13 +21 +7 +12 -2 ² 7KH JUHDWHVW H[SHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH DUH IRU .LULEDWL Marshall Islands 10 25 +2 +6 +2 +6 +1 +2 2 5 0 +1 0 +1 0 0 ² 7XYDOX ² 7RNHODX ² DQG 1DXUX ² 7DEOH Nauru 10 25 +2 +6 +2 +5 0 0 Palau 2.5 3.2 +0.2 +0.3 0 +0.1 -0.7 -0.9 Palau2.5 3.2 +0.2 +0.30 +0.1 -0.7 -0.9 8QGHU WKH % VFHQDULR LQ HTXLYDOHQW WR $ LQ WKH FDWFK RI VNLSMDFN WXQD LV Polynesia 8QGHU WKH % VFHQDULR LQ HTXLYDOHQW WR $ LQ WKH FDWFK RI VNLSMDFN WXQD LV Polynesia ¾ 9DULDWLRQV LQ FDWFK ZLOO KDYH VLPLODU LPSDFWV ERWK RQ *'3 DQG RQ JRYHUQPHQW SURMHFWHG WR ULVH E\\ RYHUDOO GULYHQ E\\ H[SHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ FDWFK LQ WKH HDVWHUQ American Samoa 20 25 +3 +6 +2 +4 -1 -2 5 20 +1 +4 +1 +2 0 -1 ¾ 9DULDWLRQV LQ FDWFK ZLOO KDYH VLPLODU LPSDFWV ERWK RQ *'3 DQG RQ JRYHUQPHQW SURMHFWHG WR ULVH E\\ RYHUDOO GULYHQ E\\ H[SHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ FDWFK LQ WKH HDVWHUQ American Samoa 20 25 +3 +6 +2 +4 -1 -2 5 20 +1 +4 +1 +2 0 -1 UHYHQXHV 7KXV LI WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ LV HVWLPDWHG WR EH RI UHJLRQ RI WKH ÀVKHU\\ RI ! ZLWK D PDUJLQDO GHFOLQH LQ SURMHFWHG FDWFKHV LQ WKH Tokelau 2 15 +1 +9 +1 +10 +1 +9 UHYHQXHV 7KXV LI WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKH VXUIDFH ÀVKHU\\ LV HVWLPDWHG WR EH RI UHJLRQ RI WKH ÀVKHU\\ RI ! ZLWK D PDUJLQDO GHFOLQH LQ SURMHFWHG FDWFKHV LQ WKH Tokelau 2 15 +1 +9 +1 +10 +1 +9 *'3 DQG FDWFK LV SURMHFWHG WR ULVH E\\ WKHQ WKH LQFUHDVHG FRQWULEXWLRQ WR *'3 ZHVWHUQ UHJLRQ 7DEOH )RU 3,&7V LQ 0LFURQHVLD DQG 3RO\\QHVLD WKH JHQHUDO OHYHO Tuvalu 10 25 +4 +9 +4 +10 +2 +6 *'3 DQG FDWFK LV SURMHFWHG WR ULVH E\\ WKHQ WKH LQFUHDVHG FRQWULEXWLRQ WR *'3 ZHVWHUQ UHJLRQ 7DEOH )RU 3,&7V LQ 0LFURQHVLD DQG 3RO\\QHVLD WKH JHQHUDO OHYHO Tuvalu 10 25 +4 +9 +4 +10 +2 +6 GXH WR WKH JUHDWHU FDWFK LV HVWLPDWHG WR EH RI *'3 RI EHQHÀWV SURMHFWHG IRU DUH H[SHFWHG WR FRQWLQXH LQ 7DEOH 2Q WKH $SSUR[LPDWHV WKH $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULR LQ 7DEOH GXH WR WKH JUHDWHU FDWFK LV HVWLPDWHG WR EH RI *'3 RI EHQHÀWV SURMHFWHG IRU DUH H[SHFWHG WR FRQWLQXH LQ 7DEOH 2Q WKH $SSUR[LPDWHV WKH $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULR LQ 7DEOH RWKHU KDQG SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV LQ FDWFK RI LQ 31* DQG LQ 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV E\\ ¾ 7XQD SULFHV *'3 OHYHOV RI WD[DWLRQ DQG WKH YDOXHDGGHG FRPSRQHQW RI SXUVH XQGHU WKH % VFHQDULR 7DEOH DUH H[SHFWHG WR OHDG WR GHFOLQHV LQ *'3 DQG 7KH H[SHFWHG RXWFRPHV IRU $PHULFDQ 6DPRD DUH PL[HG 3URMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ RYHUDOO VHLQH DQG SROHDQGOLQH ÀVKLQJ RSHUDWLRQV UHPDLQ FRQVWDQW UHODWLYH WR ² JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXHV +RZHYHU GXH WR WKH UHODWLYHO\\ ORZ LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH VXUIDFH FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD WR DQG XQGHU WKH % VFHQDULR LQ PD\\ KDYH D OHYHOV 7KHVH DVVXPSWLRQV DUH FRPPRQ LQ RWKHU IXWXUH HFRQRPLF YXOQHUDELOLW\\ ÀVKHU\\ WR WKH ODUJHU HFRQRPLHV RI WKHVH 3,&7V *'3 LV HVWLPDWHG WR GHFOLQH E\\ RQO\\ SRVLWLYH LPSDFW &RQYHUVHO\\ FDWFK GHFOLQHV XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR LQ PD\\ KDYH DQDO\\VHV ² LQ ERWK FRXQWULHV *RYHUQPHQW UHYHQXHV DUH DOVR H[SHFWHG WR IDOO E\\ RQO\\ D QHJDWLYH HIIHFW RQ WKH HFRQRP\\ LQ $PHULFDQ 6DPRD RWKHU KDQG SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV LQ FDWFK RI LQ 31* DQG LQ 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV E\\ ¾ 7XQD SULFHV *'3 OHYHOV RI WD[DWLRQ DQG WKH YDOXHDGGHG FRPSRQHQW RI SXUVH XQGHU WKH % VFHQDULR 7DEOH DUH H[SHFWHG WR OHDG WR GHFOLQHV LQ *'3 DQG 7KH H[SHFWHG RXWFRPHV IRU $PHULFDQ 6DPRD DUH PL[HG 3URMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ RYHUDOO VHLQH DQG SROHDQGOLQH ÀVKLQJ RSHUDWLRQV UHPDLQ FRQVWDQW UHODWLYH WR ² JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXHV +RZHYHU GXH WR WKH UHODWLYHO\\ ORZ LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH VXUIDFH FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD WR DQG XQGHU WKH % VFHQDULR LQ PD\\ KDYH D OHYHOV 7KHVH DVVXPSWLRQV DUH FRPPRQ LQ RWKHU IXWXUH HFRQRPLF YXOQHUDELOLW\\ ÀVKHU\\ WR WKH ODUJHU HFRQRPLHV RI WKHVH 3,&7V *'3 LV HVWLPDWHG WR GHFOLQH E\\ RQO\\ SRVLWLYH LPSDFW &RQYHUVHO\\ FDWFK GHFOLQHV XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR LQ PD\\ KDYH DQDO\\VHV ² LQ ERWK FRXQWULHV *RYHUQPHQW UHYHQXHV DUH DOVR H[SHFWHG WR IDOO E\\ RQO\\ D QHJDWLYH HIIHFW RQ WKH HFRQRP\\ LQ $PHULFDQ 6DPRD ¾ 7KH EDODQFH EHWZHHQ FDWFKHV E\\ ORFDOO\\EDVHG ÁHHWV ZKLFK FRQWULEXWH WR *'3 LQ 31* DQG LQ 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV 7DEOH :H HPSKDVLVH WKDW WKH DQDO\\VHV SUHVHQWHG KHUH DUH SUHOLPLQDU\\ DQG EDVHG RQ VRPH DQG ':)1V ZKLFK GR QRW UHPDLQ FRQVWDQW %\\ XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD DUH SURMHFWHG WR IDOO IRU WKH VLPSOLVWLF DVVXPSWLRQV ² WKH HVWLPDWHV SURYLGH RQO\\ DQ LQGLFDWLRQ RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ DQG ¾ )LVKLQJ HIIRUW UHPDLQV FRQVWDQW :H UHFRJQLVH WKDW WKLV LV XQOLNHO\\ EHFDXVH DV ÀVKHU\\ DV D ZKROH E\\ DURXQG EHFDXVH WKH PRGHVW SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH HDVW PDJQLWXGH RI SRVVLEOH HFRQRPLF LPSDFWV DQG QHHG WR EH LPSURYHG E\\ PDWFKLQJ WKH FDWFK SHU XQLW HIIRUW &38( LQ DQ DUHD FKDQJHV WKH UHODWLYH SURÀWDELOLW\\ RI ÀVKLQJ RI WKH UHJLRQ DUH PRUH WKDQ RIIVHW E\\ WKH H[SHFWHG GHFOLQH RI LQ WKH ODUJHU EDVHOLQHV IRU SURMHFWHG FDWFKHV ² ZLWK WKH EDVHOLQHV IRU WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV DOVR FKDQJHV $V D UHVXOW ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW LQFUHDVHV LQ DUHDV ZKHUH &38( LPSURYHV FRPSRQHQW RI WKH ÀVKHU\\ LQ WKH ZHVW 7DEOH 7KH SURMHFWHG GHFOLQH LQ FDWFKHV WR *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH ² 0RUH DGYDQFHG PRGHOOLQJ RI IXWXUH DQG GHFUHDVHV ZKHUH &38( GHFOLQHV 7KLV PHDQV WKDW WKH LPSDFWV HVWLPDWHG LQ RI VNLSMDFN WXQD LQ WKH ((= RI 31* LV SDUWLFXODUO\\ VLJQLÀFDQW DOWKRXJK LW LV HVWLPDWHG FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD QHHGV WR EH GRQH LQFRUSRUDWLQJ RXWSXWV IURP WKH QHZ WKLV DQDO\\VLV DUH OLNHO\\ WR EH DPSOLÀHG )RU H[DPSOH LI FDWFKHV ZLWKLQ DQ ((= IDOO WR UHVXOW LQ D UHGXFWLRQ RI RQO\\ XS WR LQ *'3 DQG LQ JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH JHQHUDWLRQ RI JOREDO SK\\VLFDO FOLPDWH PRGHOV OLQNHG WR ELRORJLFDO SDUDPHWHUV ¾ 7KH EDODQFH EHWZHHQ FDWFKHV E\\ ORFDOO\\EDVHG ÁHHWV ZKLFK FRQWULEXWH WR *'3 LQ 31* DQG LQ 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV 7DEOH :H HPSKDVLVH WKDW WKH DQDO\\VHV SUHVHQWHG KHUH DUH SUHOLPLQDU\\ DQG EDVHG RQ VRPH DQG ':)1V ZKLFK GR QRW UHPDLQ FRQVWDQW %\\ XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD DUH SURMHFWHG WR IDOO IRU WKH VLPSOLVWLF DVVXPSWLRQV ² WKH HVWLPDWHV SURYLGH RQO\\ DQ LQGLFDWLRQ RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ DQG ¾ )LVKLQJ HIIRUW UHPDLQV FRQVWDQW :H UHFRJQLVH WKDW WKLV LV XQOLNHO\\ EHFDXVH DV ÀVKHU\\ DV D ZKROH E\\ DURXQG EHFDXVH WKH PRGHVW SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH HDVW PDJQLWXGH RI SRVVLEOH HFRQRPLF LPSDFWV DQG QHHG WR EH LPSURYHG E\\ PDWFKLQJ WKH FDWFK SHU XQLW HIIRUW &38( LQ DQ DUHD FKDQJHV WKH UHODWLYH SURÀWDELOLW\\ RI ÀVKLQJ RI WKH UHJLRQ DUH PRUH WKDQ RIIVHW E\\ WKH H[SHFWHG GHFOLQH RI LQ WKH ODUJHU EDVHOLQHV IRU SURMHFWHG FDWFKHV ² ZLWK WKH EDVHOLQHV IRU WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV DOVR FKDQJHV $V D UHVXOW ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW LQFUHDVHV LQ DUHDV ZKHUH &38( LPSURYHV FRPSRQHQW RI WKH ÀVKHU\\ LQ WKH ZHVW 7DEOH 7KH SURMHFWHG GHFOLQH LQ FDWFKHV WR *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH ² 0RUH DGYDQFHG PRGHOOLQJ RI IXWXUH DQG GHFUHDVHV ZKHUH &38( GHFOLQHV 7KLV PHDQV WKDW WKH LPSDFWV HVWLPDWHG LQ RI VNLSMDFN WXQD LQ WKH ((= RI 31* LV SDUWLFXODUO\\ VLJQLÀFDQW DOWKRXJK LW LV HVWLPDWHG FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD QHHGV WR EH GRQH LQFRUSRUDWLQJ RXWSXWV IURP WKH QHZ WKLV DQDO\\VLV DUH OLNHO\\ WR EH DPSOLÀHG )RU H[DPSOH LI FDWFKHV ZLWKLQ DQ ((= IDOO WR UHVXOW LQ D UHGXFWLRQ RI RQO\\ XS WR LQ *'3 DQG LQ JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH JHQHUDWLRQ RI JOREDO SK\\VLFDO FOLPDWH PRGHOV OLQNHG WR ELRORJLFDO SDUDPHWHUV "},{"text":"7 Vulnerability of plans for using fish for food security 12.7.1 Differences in capacity to provide fish among PICTs 7KH DPRXQW RI ÀVK QHHGHG WR DVVLVW 3,&7V WR DFKLHYH IRRG VHFXULW\\ RYHU WKH FRPLQJ GHFDGHV KDV EHHQ SXEOLFLVHG ZLGHO\\ $V RXWOLQHG LQ 6HFWLRQ WKH TXDQWLWLHV RI ÀVK UHTXLUHG DQG WKH SODQV WR VXSSO\\ WKHP KDYH EHHQ EDVHG RQ LGHQWLI\\LQJ WKH FRQVXPSWLRQ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ QHHGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ RU WKH WUDGLWLRQDOO\\ KLJKHU OHYHOV RI ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ W\\SLFDO RI PDQ\\ 3,&7V IRUHFDVWLQJ WKH DPRXQW RI ÀVK QHHGHG E\\ WKH JURZLQJ SRSXODWLRQV RI WKH UHJLRQ LGHQWLI\\LQJ WKH ÀVK OLNHO\\ WR EH DYDLODEOH WR PHHW WKH SURMHFWHG QHHGV DQG DVVHVVLQJ KRZ EHVW WR LQFUHDVH DFFHVV WR DGGLWLRQDO ÀVK ZKHUH UHTXLUHG 7KH DPRXQW RI ÀVK QHHGHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ E\\ HDFK 3,&7 RYHU WKH QH[W FRXSOH RI GHFDGHV GXH WR LQFUHDVHV LQ SRSXODWLRQ LV ZHOO XQGHUVWRRG 7DEOH ,GHQWLI\\LQJ ZKHUH WKH NJ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU UHFRPPHQGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ ZLOO FRPH IURP LV QRW DV VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG +RZHYHU LW LV UHDVRQDEOH WR DVVXPH WKDW PXFK RI WKH ÀVK XVHG IRU IRRG ZLOO FRQWLQXH WR EH VXSSOLHG E\\ FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV &KDSWHU DQG IURP IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV LQ VRPH SDUWV RI 31* )LML DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV &KDSWHU 7KLV LV EHFDXVH WKHVH UHVRXUFHV DUH RQ WKH ¶GRRUVWHS• RI UXUDO FRPPXQLWLHV DQG ZLWKLQ HDV\\ DFFHVV IRU VXEVLVWHQFH ÀVKHUV ,Q WKH DEVHQFH RI GHWDLOHG LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH VXVWDLQDEOH SURGXFWLRQ RI FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV WKURXJKRXW WKH UHJLRQ &KDSWHU ZH KDYH XVHG WKUHH VHWV RI GDWD WR HVWLPDWH WKH TXDQWLWLHV RI ÀVK OLNHO\\ WR EH DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ LQ HDFK 3,&7 IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ XQWLO WKH HQG RI WKH VW FHQWXU\\ 7KHVH GDWD VHWV DUH WKH DUHD RI FRUDO UHHI LQ NP &KDSWHU D PHGLDQ HVWLPDWH RI VXVWDLQDEOH ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ IURP FRUDO UHHI KDELWDWV RI WRQQHV SHU NP SHU \\HDU &KDSWHU DQG WKH SUHGLFWHG IXWXUH SRSXODWLRQ RI HDFK 3,&7 VHH $SSHQGL[ IRU GHWDLOV RI KRZ GDWDVHWV DQG ZHUH XVHG WR HVWLPDWH VXVWDLQDEOH ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ DQG KRZ WKH\\ ZHUH PRGLÀHG IRU 3,&7V ZLWK IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV DQG &KDSWHU IRU SUHGLFWHG SRSXODWLRQV RI 3,&7V LQ ,Q UHFRJQLWLRQ RI WKH IDFW WKDW WKHUH LV FRQVLGHUDEOH YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH SURGXFWLYLW\\ RI FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV WKURXJKRXW WKH UHJLRQ &KDSWHU ZH KDYH DOVR DVVHVVHG WKH TXDQWLWLHV RI ÀVK H[SHFWHG WR EH DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ LQ WKH IXWXUH ZKHUH WKH VWDWXV RI ÀVKHULHV UHVRXUFHV LV SRRU WR PHGLXP DQG ÀVKLQJ SUHVVXUH LV KLJK DQG ZKHUH ÀVKHULHV UHVRXUFHV LV PHGLXP WR JRRG DQG ÀVKLQJ SUHVVXUH LV ORZ &KDSWHU 6XVWDLQDEOH ÀVK SURGXFWLRQ LQ WKHVH VLWXDWLRQV ZDV DVVXPHG WR EH WRQQH DQG WRQQHV SHU NP RI FRUDO UHHI SHU \\HDU UHVSHFWLYHO\\ %DVHG RQ DFFHVV WR FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV UHVRXUFHV DORQH DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ LV QRW DW ULVN RI IDOOLQJ EHORZ WKH UHFRPPHQGHG NJ SHU \\HDU RU WKH KLJKHU OHYHOV RI WUDGLWLRQDO ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ IRU 3,&7V LQ *URXS HYHQ XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR LQ 7DEOH 7KLV LV GXH WR WKH ODUJH DUHDV RI FRUDO UHHI UHODWLYH WR SRSXODWLRQ VL]H LQ WKHVH FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV DQG WKH SUHGLFWLRQ WKDW SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK ZLOO EH VWDJQDQW RU QHJDWLYH GXH WR HPLJUDWLRQ LQ VHYHUDO RI WKHVH 3,&7V URXS DYHUDJHV RQO\\ WRQQH SHU NP SHU \\HDU WKH DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU HYHQ XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR LQ LV VWLOO HVWLPDWHG WR EH PRUH WKDQ WZLFH WKH UHFRPPHQGHG OHYHO IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ 7DEOH 7KH H[FHSWLRQ LV &RRN ,VODQGV ZKHUH NJ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU ZRXOG EH DYDLODEOH 7XQD DUH DOVR FDXJKW E\\ VPDOOVFDOH VXEVLVWHQFH DQG DUWLVDQDO ÀVKHULHV LQ 3,&7V LQ *URXS &KDSWHU EXW DUH QRW LQFOXGHG LQ WKH DQDO\\VHV EHFDXVH WKH\\ GR QRW GHSHQG GLUHFWO\\ RQ FRDVWDO KDELWDWV &KDSWHUV DQG +RZHYHU WKH DELOLW\\ RI 3,&7V LQ *URXS WR SURYLGH VXIÀFLHQW ÀVK IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ LV VWUHQJWKHQHG IXUWKHU E\\ WKH SURMHFWLRQV WKDW WKHLU DFFHVV WR WXQD LV H[SHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH VXEVWDQWLDOO\\ XQGHU D ZDUPHU FOLPDWH 7DEOH 7KH H[FHSWLRQ LV 3DODX LQ XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR ZKHUH FDWFKHV RI WXQD DUH SURMHFWHG WR GHFUHDVH E\\ ! 7DEOH 5HODWLYH HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK 3 DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV % $ RQ IXWXUH DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK LQ WKH WKUHH JURXSV RI 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV 3,&7V 6HFWLRQ 9DOXHV DUH HVWLPDWHG DYHUDJHV RI ÀVK DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU NJ IRU DOO 3,&7V LQ WKH JURXS GXH WR SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DORQH DQG IRU WKH FRPELQHG HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH XQGHU WKH %$ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV LQ $ LQ DQG % DQG $ LQ (VWLPDWHV DUH IRU WKUHH OHYHOV RI ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ WRQQHV SHU NP RI FRUDO UHHI SHU \\HDU FRQVLGHUHG WR EH PRVW OLNHO\\ WRQQH SHU NP SHU \\HDU WR UHSUHVHQW UHHIV ZKHUH UHVRXUFH VWDWXV LV SRRU WR PHGLXP DQG ÀVKLQJ SUHVVXUH LV KLJK DQG WRQQHV SHU NP SHU \\HDU IRU UHHIV ZKHUH WKH VWDWXV RI UHVRXUFHV LV PHGLXP WR JRRG DQG ÀVKLQJ SUHVVXUH LV ORZ 1RWH WKDW *URXS LQFOXGHV FRQWULEXWLRQV IURP IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK ZKLFK DUH KHOG FRQVWDQW SHU \\HDU LQ XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR NJ SHU SHUVRQ XQGHU % LQ DQG NJ SHU SHUVRQ XQGHU $ LQ $OWKRXJK VXFK SURGXFWLRQ VXSSOLHV WKH UHFRPPHQGHG NJ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU LW LV LQVXIÀFLHQW WR PDLQWDLQ WKH WUDGLWLRQDOO\\ KLJK OHYHOV RI ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ LQ .LULEDWL ,Q )UHQFK 3RO\\QHVLD WKH SRWHQWLDO DQQXDO UHHI ÀVK SURGXFWLRQ DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ LV HVWLPDWHG WR EH NJ SHU SHUVRQ XQGHU $ LQ ZKLFK ZRXOG EH VXIÀFLHQW WR PDLQWDLQ WKH WUDGLWLRQDOO\\ KLJK OHYHOV RI FRQVXPSWLRQ 7DEOH SURYLGHG WKLV ÀVK FDQ EH GLVWULEXWHG HIIHFWLYHO\\ ¾ *URXS &RRN ,VODQGV 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV 1HZ &DOHGRQLD 3DODX 3LWFDLUQ ,VODQGV ¾ *URXS &RRN ,VODQGV 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV 1HZ &DOHGRQLD 3DODX 3LWFDLUQ ,VODQGV DQG 7RNHODX ZKHUH FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV DUH H[SHFWHG WR PHHW WKH LQFUHDVHG GHPDQG 'XH WR WKH VWURQJ LQWHUHVW LQ WKLV LVVXH LQ WKH UHJLRQ ZH DQDO\\VHG WKH HIIHFWV RI 7KH JRRG QHZV IRU PRVW 3,&7V LQ *URXS LV WKDW WKH SODQV WKH\\ QHHG WR PDNH WR DQG 7RNHODX ZKHUH FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV DUH H[SHFWHG WR PHHW WKH LQFUHDVHG GHPDQG 'XH WR WKH VWURQJ LQWHUHVW LQ WKLV LVVXH LQ WKH UHJLRQ ZH DQDO\\VHG WKH HIIHFWV RI 7KH JRRG QHZV IRU PRVW 3,&7V LQ *URXS LV WKDW WKH SODQV WKH\\ QHHG WR PDNH WR IRU ÀVK IRU WKH IRUHVHHDEOH IXWXUH 3ODQQLQJ WKH XVH RI ÀVK IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ LQ WKLV SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ WKH VXSSO\\ RI ÀVK IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ LQ SURYLGH EHWWHU DFFHVV WR WXQD WR ÀOO DQ\\ VKRUWIDOO LQ VXSSO\\ RI UHHIDVVRFLDWHG ÀVK GXH IRU ÀVK IRU WKH IRUHVHHDEOH IXWXUH 3ODQQLQJ WKH XVH RI ÀVK IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ LQ WKLV SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ WKH VXSSO\\ RI ÀVK IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ LQ SURYLGH EHWWHU DFFHVV WR WXQD WR ÀOO DQ\\ VKRUWIDOO LQ VXSSO\\ RI UHHIDVVRFLDWHG ÀVK GXH JURXS RI 3,&7V UHOLHV PDLQO\\ RQ JRRG PDQDJHPHQW RI FRUDO UHHIV VR WKDW WKH\\ FDQ DQG WR SURYLGH DVVHVVPHQWV IRU WKH QHDU PLG DQG ORQJ WHUP 3URMHFWLRQV DUH WR GLIÀFXOWLHV LQ GLVWULEXWLRQ RI FDWFKHV 6HFWLRQ DUH H[SHFWHG WR EH HQKDQFHG JURXS RI 3,&7V UHOLHV PDLQO\\ RQ JRRG PDQDJHPHQW RI FRUDO UHHIV VR WKDW WKH\\ FDQ DQG WR SURYLGH DVVHVVPHQWV IRU WKH QHDU PLG DQG ORQJ WHUP 3URMHFWLRQV DUH WR GLIÀ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¾ *URXS )60 )UHQFK 3RO\\QHVLD .LULEDWL 1LXH 7RQJD 7XYDOX DQG :DOOLV DQG DUH JLYHQ LQ &KDSWHU DQG IRU DQG LQ $SSHQGL[ 7KH PHWKRGV XVHG WR LQ XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR ZKHQ DEXQGDQFHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD DUH SURMHFWHG WR )XWXQD ZKHUH WKH DUHD RI FRUDO UHHI VKRXOG EH DEOH WR SURGXFH WKH ÀVK QHHGHG LQ WKH IXWXUH EXW ZKHUH LW ZLOO EH GLIÀFXOW WR GLVWULEXWH WKH SRWHQWLDO KDUYHVWV PDNH WKH SUHGLFWLRQV IRU DUH JLYHQ LQ $SSHQGL[ 7DEOH (VWLPDWHV RI ÀVK DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ IRU WKH %$ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV LQ GHFOLQH E\\ ! 7DEOH DV D VXUURJDWH IRU $ LQ &KDSWHU 7KH SUHGLFWHG SRSXODWLRQV RI 3,&7V LQ WXQD DUH SURMHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH E\\ ! LQ 7DEOH )60 LV WKH H[FHSWLRQ ¾ *URXS )60 )UHQFK 3RO\\QHVLD .LULEDWL 1LXH 7RQJD 7XYDOX DQG :DOOLV DQG DUH JLYHQ LQ &KDSWHU DQG IRU DQG LQ $SSHQGL[ 7KH PHWKRGV XVHG WR LQ XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR ZKHQ DEXQGDQFHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD DUH SURMHFWHG WR )XWXQD ZKHUH WKH DUHD RI FRUDO UHHI VKRXOG EH DEOH WR SURGXFH WKH ÀVK QHHGHG LQ WKH IXWXUH EXW ZKHUH LW ZLOO EH GLIÀFXOW WR GLVWULEXWH WKH SRWHQWLDO KDUYHVWV PDNH WKH SUHGLFWLRQV IRU DUH JLYHQ LQ $SSHQGL[ 7DEOH (VWLPDWHV RI ÀVK DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ IRU WKH %$ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV LQ GHFOLQH E\\ ! 7DEOH $ LQ DQG % DQG $ LQ IRU 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV 3,&7V WR XUEDQ FHQWUHV EHFDXVH RI WKH JUHDW GLVWDQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH PDLQ SRSXODWLRQ FHQWUHV DQG WKH LVODQGV DWROOV DQG UHHIV ZKHUH WKH ÀVK RFFXU 5HJXODU DFFHVV WR LQ *URXS 6HFWLRQ 7KHVH HVWLPDWHV DVVXPH VXVWDLQDEOH ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ RI 12.7.2 Vulnerability of Group 1 WRQQHV SHU NP RI FRUDO UHHI SHU \\HDU 6HH $SSHQGL[ IRU D GHVFULSWLRQ RI PHWKRGV DQG WKH ÀVK QHHGHG E\\ WKH JURZLQJ XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQV LQ WKHVH 3,&7V ZLOO GHSHQG 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOHV ² ZZZVSFLQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQW $ LQ DQG % DQG $ LQ IRU 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV 3,&7V WR XUEDQ FHQWUHV EHFDXVH RI WKH JUHDW GLVWDQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH PDLQ SRSXODWLRQ FHQWUHV DQG WKH LVODQGV DWROOV DQG UHHIV ZKHUH WKH ÀVK RFFXU 5HJXODU DFFHVV WR LQ *URXS 6HFWLRQ 7KHVH HVWLPDWHV DVVXPH VXVWDLQDEOH ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ RI 12.7.2 Vulnerability of Group 1 WRQQHV SHU NP RI FRUDO UHHI SHU \\HDU 6HH $SSHQGL[ IRU D GHVFULSWLRQ RI PHWKRGV DQG WKH ÀVK QHHGHG E\\ WKH JURZLQJ XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQV LQ WKHVH 3,&7V ZLOO GHSHQG 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOHV ² ZZZVSFLQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQW QRW RQO\\ RQ JRRG PDQDJHPHQW RI FRUDO UHHIV EXW DOVR RQ LQVWDOODWLRQ RI ORZ FKDSWHUVVXSSWDEOHVSGI IRU GHWDLOV RI FDOFXODWLRQV QRW RQO\\ RQ JRRG PDQDJHPHQW RI FRUDO UHHIV EXW DOVR RQ LQVWDOODWLRQ RI ORZ FKDSWHUVVXSSWDEOHVSGI IRU GHWDLOV RI FDOFXODWLRQV PICT FRVW )$'V DQFKRUHG LQVKRUH WR DVVLVW VXEVLVWHQFH DQG DUWLVDQDO ÀVKHUV FDWFK WXQD LPSURYHG DFFHVV WR WXQD DQG E\\FDWFK FDXJKW E\\ LQGXVWULDO ÀVKHULHV DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI ÀVKHULHV IRU VPDOO SHODJLF ÀVK 6HFWLRQV DQG Estimated potential Fish available per person Population** per year (kg) a Reef fish yield area (km 2 )* per km 2 per year 2035 2050 2035 2050 2100 2100 B1/A2 A2 B1 A2 PICTFRVW )$'V DQFKRUHG LQVKRUH WR DVVLVW VXEVLVWHQFH DQG DUWLVDQDO ÀVKHUV FDWFK WXQD LPSURYHG DFFHVV WR WXQD DQG E\\FDWFK FDXJKW E\\ LQGXVWULDO ÀVKHULHV DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI ÀVKHULHV IRU VPDOO SHODJLF ÀVK 6HFWLRQV DQG Estimated potential Fish available per person Population** per year (kg) a Reef fish yield area (km 2 )* per km 2 per year 2035 2050 2035 2050 2100 2100 B1/A2 A2 B1 A2 DQG RWKHU FRDVWDO KDELWDWV 7KHVH SODQV DOVR GHSHQG KHDYLO\\ RQ WKH LQWHUYHQWLRQV WR LQFUHDVH DFFHVV WR WXQD GHVFULEHG DERYH SDUWLFXODUO\\ IDFLOLWDWLQJ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI ORZ YDOXH ÀVK DQG E\\FDWFK IURP LQGXVWULDO ÁHHWV DQG LQVWDOOLQJ DQFKRUHG LQVKRUH )$'V WR DVVLVW VXEVLVWHQFH DQG DUWLVDQDO ÀVKHUV LQ UXUDO DUHDV WR FDWFK WXQD +RZHYHU GHYHORSPHQW RI VPDOO SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH ZKHUH WKHUH LV DGHTXDWH IUHVK ZDWHU &KDSWHU DQG VFDOLQJXS ÀVKHULHV IRU VPDOO SHODJLF ÀVK &KDSWHU DOVR KDYH SRWHQWLDO WR PDNH VXEVWDQWLDO FRQWULEXWLRQV WR WKH ÀVK UHTXLUHG DW WKH ORFDO OHYHO DQG PRGHVW FRQWULEXWLRQV QDWLRQDOO\\ ,Q VRPH RI WKH PRUH HFRQRPLFDOO\\ GHYHORSHG 3,&7V LQ *URXS HJ $PHULFDQ 6DPRD *XDP DQG &10, SXUFKDVHV RI ORFDO DQG LPSRUWHG FDQQHG WXQD FDQ DOVR SURYLGH PXFK RI WKH ÀVK UHTXLUHG 7KH UHODWLYHO\\ KLJK *'3 SHU SHUVRQ LQ WKHVH WKUHH 3,&7V $SSHQGL[ DOVR PHDQV WKDW PDQ\\ SHRSOH WKHUH ZLOO KDYH WKH DELOLW\\ WR SXUFKDVH RWKHU VRXUFHV RI DQLPDO SURWHLQ DQG PD\\ QRW DOZD\\V QHHG NJ RI ÀVK SHU \\HDU IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ 1HYHUWKHOHVV DOO 3,&7V LQ *URXS KDYH EHHQ DQDO\\VHG LQ WKH VDPH ZD\\ 7R GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU WKH SODQV GHVFULEHG DERYH FRXOG EH GHUDLOHG E\\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH ZH HVWLPDWHG WKH HIIHFWV RI WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ Availability of fish per person per year (kg) (tonnes) Tonnes of 7DEOH (VWLPDWHV RI ÀVK DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ IRU WKH %$ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV LQ $ LQ DQG % DQG $ LQ IRU 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV 3,&7V LQ *URXS 6HFWLRQ 7KHVH HVWLPDWHV DVVXPH VXVWDLQDEOH ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ RI WRQQHV SHU NP RI FRUDO UHHI SHU \\HDU 6HH $SSHQGL[ IRU D GHVFULSWLRQ RI PHWKRGV DQG 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOHV ² ZZZVSFLQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQW FKDSWHUVVXSSWDEOHVSGI IRU GHWDLOV RI FDOFXODWLRQV PICT* Reef area (km 2 )** Estimated potential fish yield per km 2 per year (tonnes) Population*** Fish available per person per year (kg) a 2035 2050 2100 B1/A2 2035 A2 2050 B1 2100 A2 2100 Melanesia New Caledonia 35,925 107,775 322,500 343,000 372,000 326 268 245 215 Micronesia Marshall Islands 13,930 41,790 62,700 61,200 61,000 644 566 558 484 Palau 2496 7488 22,700 22,500 22,000 320 283 279 250 Polynesia Cook Islands 667 2000 16,900 16,900 16,000 115 101 107 92 Tokelau 204 612 12,800 1150 1150 495 451 451 388 3LWFDLUQ ,VODQGV QRW LQFOXGHG EXW HVWLPDWHV RI ÀVK DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU H[FHHG NJ IRU DOO VFHQDULRV GHULYHG IURP &KDSWHU VRXUFH 63& 6WDWLVWLFV IRU 'HYHORSPHQW 3URJUDPPH D LQFOXGHV LQYHUWHEUDWHV ,Q WKH XQOLNHO\\ HYHQW WKDW VXVWDLQDEOH SURGXFWLRQ RI ÀVKHULHV IURP FRUDO UHHIV LQ 3,&7V fish per km 2 per year 2035 2050 2100 P B1/A2 P A2 P B1 A2 1* 1 130 125 130 110 130 110 95 3 390 375 390 330 390 330 285 5 650 625 650 550 650 550 475 2 1 9 0 8 6 8 5 7 1 7 5 6 2 5 4 3 270 258 255 213 225 186 162 5 450 430 425 355 375 310 270 3 1 5 . 7 5 . 6 5 . 0 4 . 7 3 . 9 3 . 4 3 . 1 3 1 5 . 2 1 4 . 8 1 3 . 7 1 1 . 8 1 0 . 5 9 . 0 7 . 9 5 24.8 24.1 22.2 19.0 17.1 14.7 12.8 $YHUDJH GRHV QRW LQFOXGH 3LWFDLUQ ,VODQGV 12.7.3 Vulnerability of Group 2 7KH SUREOHPV HQFRXQWHUHG E\\ PRVW 3,&7V WKDW FXUUHQWO\\ KDYH WKH FDSDFLW\\ WR SURGXFH WKH ÀVK QHHGHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ EXW HQFRXQWHU GLIÀFXOWLHV LQ GLVWULEXWLQJ LW WR SRSXODWLRQ FHQWUHV DUH QRW JHQHUDOO\\ H[SHFWHG WR EH H[DFHUEDWHG E\\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH (YHQ XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR PRVW 3,&7V LQ *URXS DUH VWLOO H[SHFWHG WR KDYH WKH SRWHQWLDO WR SURGXFH HQRXJK ÀVK WR PHHW WUDGLWLRQDO OHYHOV RI ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ 7DEOH Micronesia FSM 15,074 45,222 105,300 109,300 109,300 418 352 352 Kiribati 4320 12,960 144,600 163,300 211,300 86 b 65 b 50 b b Polynesia French Polynesia 15,126 45,378 330,800 348,800 378,900 131 109 100 Niue 56 168 1200 1300 1300 125 114 114 Tonga 5811 17,433 115,000 123,000 146,900 145 116 97 Tuvalu 3175 9525 12,800 13,900 18,500 711 570 428 Wallis and Futuna 932 2796 13,600 13,600 13,600 197 171 172 'HULYHG IURP &KDSWHU VRXUFH 63& 6WDWLVWLFV IRU 'HYHORSPHQW 3URJUDPPH VHH DOVR $SSHQGL[ D LQFOXGHV LQYHUWHEUDWHV E 3,&7V ZKHUH DYDLODELOLW\\ RI UHHIDVVRFLDWHG ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ LV OHVV WKDQ FXUUHQW UDWHV RI WUDGLWLRQDO ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ ,I UHHIGHSHQGHQW ÀVKHULHV LQ 3,&7V LQ *URXS WXUQ RXW WR EH OHVV SURGXFWLYH WKDQ WKH HVWLPDWHG PHGLDQ YDOXH IRU FRUDO UHHIV LQ JHQHUDO DQG \\LHOG RQO\\ WRQQH RI ÀVK SHU NP SHU \\HDU DYHUDJH DQQXDO ÀVK SURGXFWLRQ ZRXOG VWLOO EH PRUH WKDQ WKH UHFRPPHQGHG OHYHO RI NJ SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU XQGHU DOO FOLPDWH FKDQJH VFHQDULRV 7DEOH 1RWZLWKVWDQGLQJ WKH GLIÀFXOWLHV LQ GLVWULEXWLQJ WKH SRWHQWLDO SURGXFWLRQ WKLV DQDO\\VLV PDVNV WKH IDFW WKDW DFFHVV WR ÀVK LQ .LULEDWL ZRXOG IDOO EHORZ WKH UHFRPPHQGHG OHYHO RI NJ SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU IRU DOO VFHQDULRV 6LPLODU SUREOHPV ZRXOG DOVR RFFXU LQ )UHQFK 3RO\\QHVLD DQG 7RQJD LQ 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG LI SURGXFWLRQ IURP UHHIGHSHQGHQW ÀVKHULHV LV KLJKHU WKDQ WKH PHGLDQ HVWLPDWH LQ *Group DW WRQQHV SHU NP SHU \\HDU WKH SRWHQWLDO DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ IRU 3,&7V LQ DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ ZKHUH UHOHYDQW XQGHU WKH % DQG $ HPLVVLRQV *URXS IDU H[FHHGV WUDGLWLRQDO OHYHOV RI ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ H[FHSW LQ .LULEDWL XQGHU VFHQDULRV RQ IXWXUH DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ RYHU DQG DERYH WKH HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK VHH $SSHQGL[ IRU WKH PHWKRGV LQYROYHG $ LQ DQG RWKHU FRDVWDO KDELWDWV 7KHVH SODQV DOVR GHSHQG KHDYLO\\ RQ WKH LQWHUYHQWLRQV WR LQFUHDVH DFFHVV WR WXQD GHVFULEHG DERYH SDUWLFXODUO\\ IDFLOLWDWLQJ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI ORZ YDOXH ÀVK DQG E\\FDWFK IURP LQGXVWULDO ÁHHWV DQG LQVWDOOLQJ DQFKRUHG LQVKRUH )$'V WR DVVLVW VXEVLVWHQFH DQG DUWLVDQDO ÀVKHUV LQ UXUDO DUHDV WR FDWFK WXQD +RZHYHU GHYHORSPHQW RI VPDOO SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH ZKHUH WKHUH LV DGHTXDWH IUHVK ZDWHU &KDSWHU DQG VFDOLQJXS ÀVKHULHV IRU VPDOO SHODJLF ÀVK &KDSWHU DOVR KDYH SRWHQWLDO WR PDNH VXEVWDQWLDO FRQWULEXWLRQV WR WKH ÀVK UHTXLUHG DW WKH ORFDO OHYHO DQG PRGHVW FRQWULEXWLRQV QDWLRQDOO\\ ,Q VRPH RI WKH PRUH HFRQRPLFDOO\\ GHYHORSHG 3,&7V LQ *URXS HJ $PHULFDQ 6DPRD *XDP DQG &10, SXUFKDVHV RI ORFDO DQG LPSRUWHG FDQQHG WXQD FDQ DOVR SURYLGH PXFK RI WKH ÀVK UHTXLUHG 7KH UHODWLYHO\\ KLJK *'3 SHU SHUVRQ LQ WKHVH WKUHH 3,&7V $SSHQGL[ DOVR PHDQV WKDW PDQ\\ SHRSOH WKHUH ZLOO KDYH WKH DELOLW\\ WR SXUFKDVH RWKHU VRXUFHV RI DQLPDO SURWHLQ DQG PD\\ QRW DOZD\\V QHHG NJ RI ÀVK SHU \\HDU IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ 1HYHUWKHOHVV DOO 3,&7V LQ *URXS KDYH EHHQ DQDO\\VHG LQ WKH VDPH ZD\\ 7R GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU WKH SODQV GHVFULEHG DERYH FRXOG EH GHUDLOHG E\\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH ZH HVWLPDWHG WKH HIIHFWV RI WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ Availability of fish per person per year (kg) (tonnes) Tonnes of 7DEOH (VWLPDWHV RI ÀVK DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ IRU WKH %$ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV LQ $ LQ DQG % DQG $ LQ IRU 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV 3,&7V LQ *URXS 6HFWLRQ 7KHVH HVWLPDWHV DVVXPH VXVWDLQDEOH ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ RI WRQQHV SHU NP RI FRUDO UHHI SHU \\HDU 6HH $SSHQGL[ IRU D GHVFULSWLRQ RI PHWKRGV DQG 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOHV ² ZZZVSFLQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQW FKDSWHUVVXSSWDEOHVSGI IRU GHWDLOV RI FDOFXODWLRQV PICT* Reef area (km 2 )** Estimated potential fish yield per km 2 per year (tonnes) Population*** Fish available per person per year (kg) a 2035 2050 2100 B1/A2 2035 A2 2050 B1 2100 A2 2100 Melanesia New Caledonia 35,925 107,775 322,500 343,000 372,000 326 268 245 215 Micronesia Marshall Islands 13,930 41,790 62,700 61,200 61,000 644 566 558 484 Palau 2496 7488 22,700 22,500 22,000 320 283 279 250 Polynesia Cook Islands 667 2000 16,900 16,900 16,000 115 101 107 92 Tokelau 204 612 12,800 1150 1150 495 451 451 388 3LWFDLUQ ,VODQGV QRW LQFOXGHG EXW HVWLPDWHV RI ÀVK DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU H[FHHG NJ IRU DOO VFHQDULRV GHULYHG IURP &KDSWHU VRXUFH 63& 6WDWLVWLFV IRU 'HYHORSPHQW 3URJUDPPH D LQFOXGHV LQYHUWHEUDWHV ,Q WKH XQOLNHO\\ HYHQW WKDW VXVWDLQDEOH SURGXFWLRQ RI ÀVKHULHV IURP FRUDO UHHIV LQ 3,&7V fish per km 2 per year 2035 2050 2100 P B1/A2 P A2 P B1 A2 1* 1 130 125 130 110 130 110 95 3 390 375 390 330 390 330 285 5 650 625 650 550 650 550 475 2 1 9 0 8 6 8 5 7 1 7 5 6 2 5 4 3 270 258 255 213 225 186 162 5 450 430 425 355 375 310 270 3 1 5 . 7 5 . 6 5 . 0 4 . 7 3 . 9 3 . 4 3 . 1 3 1 5 . 2 1 4 . 8 1 3 . 7 1 1 . 8 1 0 . 5 9 . 0 7 . 9 5 24.8 24.1 22.2 19.0 17.1 14.7 12.8 $YHUDJH GRHV QRW LQFOXGH 3LWFDLUQ ,VODQGV 12.7.3 Vulnerability of Group 2 7KH SUREOHPV HQFRXQWHUHG E\\ PRVW 3,&7V WKDW FXUUHQWO\\ KDYH WKH FDSDFLW\\ WR SURGXFH WKH ÀVK QHHGHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ EXW HQFRXQWHU GLIÀFXOWLHV LQ GLVWULEXWLQJ LW WR SRSXODWLRQ FHQWUHV DUH QRW JHQHUDOO\\ H[SHFWHG WR EH H[DFHUEDWHG E\\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH (YHQ XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR PRVW 3,&7V LQ *URXS DUH VWLOO H[SHFWHG WR KDYH WKH SRWHQWLDO WR SURGXFH HQRXJK ÀVK WR PHHW WUDGLWLRQDO OHYHOV RI ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ 7DEOH Micronesia FSM 15,074 45,222 105,300 109,300 109,300 418 352 352 Kiribati 4320 12,960 144,600 163,300 211,300 86 b 65 b 50 b b Polynesia French Polynesia 15,126 45,378 330,800 348,800 378,900 131 109 100 Niue 56 168 1200 1300 1300 125 114 114 Tonga 5811 17,433 115,000 123,000 146,900 145 116 97 Tuvalu 3175 9525 12,800 13,900 18,500 711 570 428 Wallis and Futuna 932 2796 13,600 13,600 13,600 197 171 172 'HULYHG IURP &KDSWHU VRXUFH 63& 6WDWLVWLFV IRU 'HYHORSPHQW 3URJUDPPH VHH DOVR $SSHQGL[ D LQFOXGHV LQYHUWHEUDWHV E 3,&7V ZKHUH DYDLODELOLW\\ RI UHHIDVVRFLDWHG ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ LV OHVV WKDQ FXUUHQW UDWHV RI WUDGLWLRQDO ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ ,I UHHIGHSHQGHQW ÀVKHULHV LQ 3,&7V LQ *URXS WXUQ RXW WR EH OHVV SURGXFWLYH WKDQ WKH HVWLPDWHG PHGLDQ YDOXH IRU FRUDO UHHIV LQ JHQHUDO DQG \\LHOG RQO\\ WRQQH RI ÀVK SHU NP SHU \\HDU DYHUDJH DQQXDO ÀVK SURGXFWLRQ ZRXOG VWLOO EH PRUH WKDQ WKH UHFRPPHQGHG OHYHO RI NJ SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU XQGHU DOO FOLPDWH FKDQJH VFHQDULRV 7DEOH 1RWZLWKVWDQGLQJ WKH GLIÀFXOWLHV LQ GLVWULEXWLQJ WKH SRWHQWLDO SURGXFWLRQ WKLV DQDO\\VLV PDVNV WKH IDFW WKDW DFFHVV WR ÀVK LQ .LULEDWL ZRXOG IDOO EHORZ WKH UHFRPPHQGHG OHYHO RI NJ SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU IRU DOO VFHQDULRV 6LPLODU SUREOHPV ZRXOG DOVR RFFXU LQ )UHQFK 3RO\\QHVLD DQG 7RQJD LQ 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG LI SURGXFWLRQ IURP UHHIGHSHQGHQW ÀVKHULHV LV KLJKHU WKDQ WKH PHGLDQ HVWLPDWH LQ *Group DW WRQQHV SHU NP SHU \\HDU WKH SRWHQWLDO DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ IRU 3,&7V LQ DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ ZKHUH UHOHYDQW XQGHU WKH % DQG $ HPLVVLRQV *URXS IDU H[FHHGV WUDGLWLRQDO OHYHOV RI ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ H[FHSW LQ .LULEDWL XQGHU VFHQDULRV RQ IXWXUH DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ RYHU DQG DERYH WKH HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK VHH $SSHQGL[ IRU WKH PHWKRGV LQYROYHG $ LQ "},{"text":"PICT Total fish available per person per year (kg) Gap in fish needed for good nutrition per person per year (kg) 2010 2035 2050 2100 $YDLODELOLW\\ RI ¿VK SHU SHUVRQ NJ Melanesia Fiji PNG 0 Solomon Islands 2035 40 12 50 2050 Fiji 35 8 28 2100 32 6 23 26 4 14 Year NJ 2010 +(5) 23 +(15) 2035 2035 2050 0 3 27 29 Solomon Islands 2100 9 31 7 12 21 2050 2100 NJ $YDLODELOLW\\ RI ¿VK SHU SHUVRQ NJMelanesia Fiji PNG 0 Solomon Islands 203540 12 50 2050 Fiji35 8 28 210032 6 2326 4 14 Year NJ2010 +(5) 23 +(15) 20352035 2050 0 3 27 29 Solomon Islands 2100 9 31 7 12 21 2050 2100NJ Vanuatu 16 10 8 6 19 25 27 29 Vanuatu16108619252729 Micronesia Micronesia Guam 4 3 3 2 31 32 32 33 Guam433231323233 Nauru 2 1 1 1 33 34 34 34 Nauru211133343434 CNMI 12 10 9 9 23 25 26 26 CNMI12109923252626 Polynesia Polynesia American Samoa 17 13 11 8 18 22 24 27 American Samoa171311818222427 Samoa 33 30 29 25 2 5 6 10 Samoa3330292525610 ,QGLFDWHV WKDW WKHUH LV QR JDS VXUSOXV ÀVK ,QGLFDWHV WKDW WKHUH LV QR JDS VXUSOXV ÀVK 12.7.4.2 Increased vulnerability due to climate change 12.7.4.2 Increased vulnerability due to climate change &OLPDWH FKDQJH LV H[SHFWHG WR KDYH UHODWLYHO\\ PLQRU HIIHFWV RQ DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK SHU &OLPDWH FKDQJH LV H[SHFWHG WR KDYH UHODWLYHO\\ PLQRU HIIHFWV RQ DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ FRPSDUHG WR WKRVH GXH WR SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK IRU 3,&7V LQ *URXS :KHQ WKH SHUVRQ FRPSDUHG WR WKRVH GXH WR SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK IRU 3,&7V LQ *URXS :KHQ WKH SURMHFWHG HIIHFWV RI WKH % DQG $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV LQ $ LQ % LQ SURMHFWHG HIIHFWV RI WKH % DQG $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV LQ $ LQ % LQ DQG $ LQ RQ WKH DEXQGDQFHV RI FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK &KDSWHUV DQG DQG $ LQ RQ WKH DEXQGDQFHV RI FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK &KDSWHUV DQG DUH DGGHG WR WKH HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK WKH DFFHVV WR ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ GHFUHDVHV DUH DGGHG WR WKH HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK WKH DFFHVV WR ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ GHFUHDVHV E\\ RQO\\ ² NJ XQGHU DOO VFHQDULRV IRU PRVW 3,&7V LQ *URXS 7KHUH DUH WZR PDLQ E\\ RQO\\ ² NJ XQGHU DOO VFHQDULRV IRU PRVW 3,&7V LQ *URXS 7KHUH DUH WZR PDLQ UHDVRQV IRU WKLV )LUVW D YHU\\ ODUJH JDS DOUHDG\\ H[LVWV EHWZHHQ WKH DPRXQW RI ÀVK UHDVRQV IRU WKLV )LUVW D YHU\\ ODUJH JDS DOUHDG\\ H[LVWV EHWZHHQ WKH DPRXQW RI ÀVK QHHGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ DQG WKH HVWLPDWHG VXVWDLQDEOH KDUYHVWV IURP WKH DUHDV QHHGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ DQG WKH HVWLPDWHG VXVWDLQDEOH KDUYHVWV IURP WKH DUHDV RI FRUDO UHHI DQG DVVRFLDWHG FRDVWDO KDELWDWV LQ PDQ\\ RI WKHVH 3,&7V 7DEOH RI FRUDO UHHI DQG DVVRFLDWHG FRDVWDO KDELWDWV LQ PDQ\\ RI WKHVH 3,&7V 7DEOH "},{"text":"Vulnerability of plans to create additional livelihoods %\\ WKH FKDQJLQJ FOLPDWH LV H[SHFWHG WR PDNH PRUH VNLSMDFN WXQD DYDLODEOH LQ ERWK WKH ZHVWHUQ DQG HDVWHUQ SDUWV RI WKH UHJLRQ EXW SDUWLFXODUO\\ LQ WKH HDVW 7DEOH FUHDWLQJ PRUH VFRSH IRU MREV RQ ÀVKLQJ YHVVHOV DQG LQ SURFHVVLQJ SODQWV SURYLGHG SODQV WR LQFUHDVH WKH ¶GRPHVWLFDWLRQ• RI WKHVH LQGXVWULHV 6HFWLRQ DUH VXFFHVVIXO 2SSRUWXQLWLHV WR LQFUHDVH WKH QXPEHU RI OLYHOLKRRGV EDVHG RQ WKH FDSWXUH RI QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF ÀVK VSHFLHV E\\ FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV DUH DOVR H[SHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH VXEVWDQWLDOO\\ LQ WKH HDVWHUQ SDUW RI WKH UHJLRQ GXH WR WKH KLJKHU SURMHFWHG DEXQGDQFHV RI VNLSMDFN DQG \\HOORZÀQ WXQD WKHUH &KDSWHU $OWKRXJK JRRG RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU QHZ OLYHOLKRRGV EDVHG RQ WKH WXQD FRPSRQHQW RI QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF ÀVK VKRXOG DOVR H[LVW LQ WKH ZHVW 6HFWLRQ WKH\\ ZLOO QRW EH IDYRXUHG E\\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH WR WKH VDPH H[WHQW EHFDXVH WKH QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF ÀVKHU\\ LV GRPLQDWHG E\\ QRQWXQD VSHFLHV VXFK DV 6SDQLVK PDFNHUHO ZKLFK DUH PRUH FORVHO\\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FRUDO UHHIV &KDSWHU 2WKHU FRPPHUFLDO FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV UHVRXUFHV GHPHUVDO ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV WDUJHWHG IRU H[SRUW DUH DOVR H[SHFWHG WR GHFOLQH VOLJKWO\\ EHFDXVH RI LQFUHDVLQJ &2 HPLVVLRQV E\\ &KDSWHU OLPLWLQJ RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR FUHDWH PRUH OLYHOLKRRGV RYHU DQG DERYH WKH JDLQV WKDW FRXOG EH PDGH IURP HIIHFWLYH PDQDJHPHQW LQ WKH LQWHULP 7KH SURMHFWHG GHJUDGDWLRQ RI FRDVWDO KDELWDWV DQG LQFUHDVH LQ VHD VXUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUHV DQG RFHDQ DFLGLÀFDWLRQ DUH DOVR H[SHFWHG WR DIIHFW SURGXFWLRQ IURP FRDVWDO DTXDFXOWXUH E\\ &KDSWHU 7KLV LV QRW WKH FDVH IRU IUHVKZDWHU SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH KRZHYHU ZKLFK LV OLNHO\\ WR EH ERRVWHG WKURXJKRXW PXFK RI 0HODQHVLD E\\ WKH SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ UDLQIDOO DQG ZDWHU WHPSHUDWXUHV 6OLJKW LQFUHDVHV LQ RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR HDUQ LQFRPH IURP IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV LQ 31* DUH DOVR H[SHFWHG IRU WKH VDPH UHDVRQV &KDSWHU 7KHVH SDWWHUQV DUH OLNHO\\ WR EH PDLQWDLQHG LQ H[FHSW WKDW QR LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH FDWFK RI VNLSMDFN WXQD E\\ LQGXVWULDO ÁHHWV DQG D GHFUHDVH LQ WKH FDWFK RI QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF ÀVK E\\ FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV PD\\ RFFXU LQ WKH ZHVW 7DEOH 7KH JHQHUDO SDWWHUQV GHVFULEHG IRU DQG WKH FKDQJLQJ WUHQGV IRU DUH H[SHFWHG WR VWUHQJWKHQ E\\ 7DEOH DOWKRXJK WKHUH LV LQFUHDVHG XQFHUWDLQW\\ DERXW WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG DEXQGDQFH RI VNLSMDFN WXQD LQ &KDSWHU 7KH H[FHSWLRQ LV LQ WKH ZHVWHUQ SDUW RI WKH UHJLRQ ZKHUH FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD DUH SURMHFWHG WR GHFUHDVH E\\ ! LQ 7DEOH SRWHQWLDOO\\ UHVXOWLQJ LQ IHZHU MREV EDVHG RQ ÀVKLQJ IRU WXQD :H KDYH QRW GRQH D IRUPDO DQDO\\VLV RI WKH UHODWLYH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ DPRQJ 3,&7V RI WKH SODQV WR RSWLPLVH WKH QXPEHU RI OLYHOLKRRGV WKDW FRXOG EH FUHDWHG IURP WKH UHVRXUFHV WKDW XQGHUSLQ ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH LQ WKH UHJLRQ 6XFK DQ DQDO\\VLV ZRXOG EH GLIÀFXOW JLYHQ WKH SUREOHPV LQYROYHG LQ FRQVWUXFWLQJ FRPSRVLWH LQGLFHV IRU H[SRVXUH DQG VHQVLWLYLW\\ DFURVV WKH YDULRXV RFHDQLF DQG FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH UHVRXUFHV LQYROYHG DQG ZHLJKWLQJ WKH YDULRXV FRPSRQHQWV RI H[SRVXUH DQG VHQVLWLYLW\\ LQGLFHV GXH WR LQVXIÀFLHQW GDWD RQ WKH MREV EDVHG RQ HDFK UHVRXUFH ,QVWHDG HDFK 3,&7 VKRXOG EH DEOH WR DVFHUWDLQ WKH JHQHUDO GLUHFWLRQ DQG PDJQLWXGH RI WKH OLNHO\\ LPSDFW RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ WKHLU SODQV WR FUHDWH OLYHOLKRRGV DFURVV WKH VHFWRU DV D ZKROH IURP WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ 7DEOH ,W LV DOVR LPSRUWDQW WR QRWH WKDW WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ RI SODQV WR PD[LPLVH WKH QXPEHU RI OLYHOLKRRGV WKDW FDQ EH GHULYHG IURP ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH GRHV QRW GHSHQG RQO\\ RQ WKH SURMHFWHG IXWXUH VWDWXV RI UHVRXUFHV &OLPDWH FKDQJH FDQ DIIHFW RWKHU DVSHFWV RI SHRSOH•V OLYHV DQG OLYHOLKRRGV GLUHFWO\\ DQG LQGLUHFWO\\ IRU H[DPSOH WKURXJK LQXQGDWLRQ RI FRDVWDO ODQG GHVWUXFWLRQ RI FRDVWDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH RU LPSDFWV RQ QRQÀVKLQJ IHDWXUHV RI FRDVWDO OLYHOLKRRG V\\VWHPV LQFOXGLQJ DJULFXOWXUH $OVR FOLPDWH FKDQJH LV QRW WKH RQO\\ ODUJHVFDOH GULYHU RI FKDQJH LQ HPSOR\\PHQW RSSRUWXQLWLHV LQ ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH 2WKHU GULYHUV LQFOXGH WHFKQRORJLFDO FKDQJH HJ VXEVWLWXWLRQ RI ODERXU E\\ WHFKQRORJ\\ FKDQJLQJ GHPRJUDSKLFV UXUDOXUEDQ PLJUDWLRQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO ODERXU PLJUDWLRQ VKLIWV LQ FXOWXUH HGXFDWLRQDO DWWDLQPHQW DQG OLIHVW\\OH DVSLUDWLRQV 7DEOH 6XPPDU\\ RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI SUHVHQW H[LVWLQJ SODQV RXWOLQHG DUURZV WR GHULYH PRUH OLYHOLKRRGV IURP WKH YDULRXV ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH UHVRXUFHV LQ WKH WURSLFDO 3DFLÀF 7KH SURMHFWHG HIIHFWV RI WKH $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULR LQ DQG RQ WKH RXWFRPHV RI WKHVH SODQV LQ WHUPV RI SHUFHQWDJH LQFUHDVHV RU GHFUHDVHV DUH DOVR VKRZQ × LQFUHDVHG RSSRUWXQLWLHV Ø GHFUHDVHG RSSRUWXQLWLHV LV DOVR LPSRUWDQW WR QRWH WKDW WKH SRWHQWLDO RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU 3,&7V LQ WKH HDVW DULVLQJ IURP DOWHUHG GLVWULEXWLRQV RI WXQD GXH WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH PD\\ EH WHPSHUHG DQG WKH GLVDGYDQWDJHV IRU 3,&7V LQ WKH ZHVW UHLQIRUFHG E\\ WKH SURVSHFW WKDW LQFUHDVLQJ IXHO SULFHV ZLOO LQFUHDVH WKH FRVWV RI FDWFKLQJ DQG WUDQVSRUWLQJ ÀVK HVSHFLDOO\\ IRU ORQJOLQH ÁHHWV WKH FRVWV LQYROYHG LQ XSJUDGLQJ ÁHHWV RSHUDWLQJ RU EDVHG LQ VXEWURSLFDO 3,&7V WR SURYLGH DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VDIHW\\ DW VHD GXULQJ PRUH VHYHUH VWRUPV &KDSWHU DQG WKH SURMHFWHG HIIHFWV RI VHDOHYHO ULVH &KDSWHU ZKLFK DUH HYHQWXDOO\\ H[SHFWHG WR UHVXOW LQ VRPH ZKDUIV DQG VKRUH EDVHG IDFLOLWLHV KDYLQJ WR EH UHEXLOW RU UHORFDWHG DQG FOLPDWH SURRÀQJ RI IXWXUH LQIUDVWUXFWXUH :H VWUHVV WKDW WKH SRVVLEOH LPSOLFDWLRQV RXWOLQHG DERYH DUH EDVHG RQ SUHOLPLQDU\\ PRGHOOLQJ RI WKH HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ WXQD VWRFNV 7KH SURMHFWHG LPSOLFDWLRQV ZLOO QHHG WR EH UHYLVHG UHJXODUO\\ DV LQYHVWPHQWV DUH PDGH LQ PRGHOV FDSDEOH RI VLPXODWLRQV ZLWK JUHDWHU FHUWDLQW\\ &KDSWHU $V PHQWLRQHG LQ 6HFWLRQ FOLPDWH FKDQJH LV QRW H[SHFWHG WR VLJQLÀFDQWO\\ DIIHFW WKH SRWHQWLDO DYDLODELOLW\\ RI UHHIDVVRFLDWHG ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ LQ PDQ\\ RI WKH 3,&7V LQ *URXS +RZHYHU .LULEDWL ZLOO QHHG WR ÀQG RWKHU ZD\\V WR SURYLGH WKH ÀVK QHHGHG WR PHHW LWV WUDGLWLRQDOO\\ KLJK OHYHOV RI ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ DV WKH FRPELQHG HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH UHGXFH WKH SRWHQWLDO DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK ,QYHVWPHQWV LQ ORZFRVW )$'V DQFKRUHG RII 7DUDZD DQG VPDOOVFDOH YHVVHOV WR ÀVK DURXQG WKHP PD\\ EH QHHGHG WR SURYLGH WKH XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQ ZLWK DFFHVV WR WXQD WR ÀOO WKH JDS EHWZHHQ WKH ÀVK QHHGHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ DQG WKH À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ÀVKHU\\ 6HFWLRQ 7KH FRPELQHG HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH FDQ DOVR EH H[SHFWHG WR KDYH VRPH LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU RWKHU 3,&7V LQ *URXS HVSHFLDOO\\ 7RQJD )RU WKH UHDVRQ GHVFULEHG IRU 3,&7V LQ *URXS WKH FDWFK SHU XQLW HIIRUW DW ORFDWLRQV IURP ZKHUH LW LV FRVWHIIHFWLYH WR VHQG ÀVK WR WKH XUEDQ PDUNHWV LV OLNHO\\ WR GHFUHDVH RYHU WLPH IDFH RI JURZLQJ SRSXODWLRQV DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH 7KHVH GHFLVLRQV DUH LPSURYLQJ WKH PDQDJHPHQW RI FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU KDELWDWV DQG ÀVK VWRFNV WR UHGXFH WKH JDS WR EH ÀOOHG EHWZHHQ WKH ÀVK QHHGHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ DQG WKH VXVWDLQDEOH KDUYHVWV DYDLODEOH IURP FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU UHVRXUFHV DVVHVVLQJ KRZ EHVW WR ÀOO WKH JDS ZLWK DYDLODEOH UHVRXUFHV WXQD DQG SRWHQWLDO ÀVK SURGXFWLRQ SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH SURPRWLQJ WKH ¶YHKLFOHV• QHHGHG WR GHOLYHU WKH ÀVK UHTXLUHG DQG EHFDXVH WXQD SURYLGHV WKH JUHDWHVW VFRSH IRU VXSSOHPHQWLQJ WKH DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ DOORFDWLQJ WKH DSSURSULDWH SURSRUWLRQ RI WKH WXQD FDWFK WR PHHW WKH QHHGV IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ 7KH UDWLRQDOH IRU WKHVH GHFLVLRQV LV H[SODLQHG EHORZ SURJUHVVLYH GHFOLQH LQ WKH UHODWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV WR WKH ÀVK QHHGHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ GXH WR WKH OLPLWV RQ SURGXFWLRQ IURP FRUDO UHHIV PDQJURYHV DQG VHDJUDVVHV DQG WKH SURMHFWHG GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ VWRFNV &KDSWHU DQG WKH SURJUHVVLYH LQFUHDVH LQ WKH VL]H RI WKH JDS WR EH ÀOOHG GXH WR SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK PHDQV WKDW WKH JUHDW PDMRULW\\ RI WKH VKRUWIDOO LQ ÀVK UHTXLUHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ ZLOO QHHG WR EH PHW XVLQJ WXQD DQG WKH E\\FDWFK IURP LQGXVWULDO WXQD SXUVHVHLQH DQG ORQJOLQLQJ RSHUDWLRQV )LJXUH FXUUHQW QDWLRQDO FDWFKHV [[ $OWKRXJK WXQD FRQWULEXWH WR FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV LQ VHYHUDO FXUUHQW QDWLRQDO FDWFKHV [[ $OWKRXJK WXQD FRQWULEXWH WR FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV LQ VHYHUDO 3,&7V LQ *URXS &KDSWHU ZH KDYH QRW LQFOXGHG WKHP LQ WKH H[SRVXUH LQGH[ IRU WKH UHDVRQV RXWOLQHG LQ $SSHQGL[ 7KH DYDLODELOLW\\ RI DOO UHHIDVVRFLDWHG ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK ZDV PRGLÀHG E\\ WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV WR WKHLU SURGXFWLRQ XQGHU HDFK VFHQDULR $SSHQGL[ 7KH UHVXOWLQJ WRWDO DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ ZDV WKHQ GHGXFWHG IURP WKH NJ SHU SHUVRQ UHTXLUHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ WR HVWLPDWH WKH H[SRVXUH ( RI HDFK 3,&7 6HQVLWLYLW\\ 6 ZDV HVWLPDWHG DV WKH UHFRPPHQGHG OHYHO RI ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ NJ SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU RU KLJKHU QDWLRQDO OHYHOV RI FRQVXPSWLRQ ZKHUH WKHVH RFFXU 3RWHQWLDO LPSDFW 3, ZDV HVWLPDWHG DV ( [ 6 DQG WKHQ VWDQGDUGLVHG DQG QRUPDOLVHG 7KH FDSDFLW\\ RI 3,&7V LQ *URXS WR DGDSW WR VKRUWDJHV LQ WKH VXSSO\\ RI ÀVK ZDV FDOFXODWHG GLIIHUHQWO\\ WR WKH DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ LQGH[ XVHG WR DVVHVV WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ RI HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH $SSHQGL[ 7KLV ZDV GRQH EHFDXVH LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI SODQV WR SURYLGH JUHDWHU DFFHVV WR RWKHU VRXUFHV RI ÀVK SXUFKDVLQJ SRZHU SOD\\V D JUHDWHU UROH LQ DOORZLQJ LQGLYLGXDOV WR DFTXLUH À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ÀVK EHFDXVH HVWLPDWHG KDUYHVWV DUH ODUJHO\\ SURMHFWHG WR SURYLGH NJ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU IRU WKH LQFUHDVHG SRSXODWLRQ 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV KDV D ORZ YXOQHUDELOLW\\ EHFDXVH WKH VKRUWIDOO RI NJ RI UHHIDVVRFLDWHG DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU SURMHFWHG WR RFFXU WKHUH LV PXFK ORZHU WKDQ IRU PRVW RWKHU 3,&7V H[FHSW 6DPRD ZKLFK KDV D PRGHUDWH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ GXH WR LWV WUDGLWLRQDOO\\ KLJK ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ 7DEOH *XDP DOVR KDV D PRGHUDWH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ EXW IRU D GLIIHUHQW UHDVRQ ² WKH SRWHQWLDO LPSDFW RI WKH JUHDW VKRUWDJHV RI UHHIDVVRFLDWHG ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ H[SHFWHG WR RFFXU WKHUH LV UHGXFHG E\\ VXEVWDQWLDO QDWLRQDO DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ 7KH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ RI &10, LV KLJK UDWKHU WKDQ YHU\\ KLJK IRU VLPLODU UHDVRQV $PHULFDQ 6DPRD 1DXUX 31* DQG 9DQXDWX KDYH D YHU\\ KLJK YXOQHUDELOLW\\ WR VKRUWDJHV LQ WKH UHFRPPHQGHG RU WUDGLWLRQDO OHYHOV RI ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ EHFDXVH RI WKH SURMHFWHG OLPLWDWLRQV WR WKH DPRXQW RI ÀVK DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ DQG ZHDN DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ 7DEOH [[ 6HH 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOHV ² ZZZVSFLQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQW 3RWHQWLDO FRQWULEXWLRQV IURP SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH FRXOG KHOS GLYHUVLI\\ ORFDO ÀVK SURGXFWLRQ EXW ZLOO EH PLQRU FRPSDUHG WR WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV WKDW WXQD FDQ PDNH DW WKH QDWLRQDO OHYHO $VVXPLQJ WKHUH LV DGHTXDWH LQYHVWPHQW LQ IDUPLQJ V\\VWHPV DQG SURJUHVVLYH GHYHORSPHQW SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH KDV WKH SRWHQWLDO WR VXSSO\\ XS WR NJ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ DW WKH QDWLRQDO OHYHO E\\ NJ E\\ DQG NJ E\\ LQ 3,&7V LQ *URXS H[FHSW $PHULFDQ 6DPRD *XDP 1DXUX DQG &10, ZKHUH DUHDV IRU FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI SRQGV DUH OLPLWHG &KDSWHU 7KLV SRWHQWLDO UDWH RI SURGXFWLRQ PD\\ DOVR EH KDUG WR DFKLHYH LQ 31* GXH WR WKH SUHGLFWHG JURZWK RI WKH DOUHDG\\ ODUJH SRSXODWLRQ 2YHUDOO KRZHYHU PDQ\\ 3,&7V LQ *URXS ZLOO QHHG WR SURYLGH DFFHVV WR DQ DGGLWLRQDO ² NJ RI WXQD SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU E\\ WR VXSSO\\ WKH ÀVK UHFRPPHQGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ ,Q 3,&7V ZKHUH RQO\\ UHODWLYHO\\ VPDOO TXDQWLWLHV RI WXQD DUH KDUYHVWHG ZLWKLQ WKHLU ((=V $PHULFDQ 6DPRD *XDP &10, WKLV DFFHVV ZLOO GHSHQG KHDYLO\\ RQ ORFDO RU LPSRUWHG FDQQHG WXQD 7KH TXDQWLWLHV RI WXQD UHTXLUHG LQ )LML 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV DQG 6DPRD DUH VPDOOHU EXW VLJQLÀFDQW QRQHWKHOHVV $VVXPLQJ WKDW SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH IXOÀ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ÁRRGV &KDSWHU 7KH EHQHÀWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH IRU WKH SODQV WR LQFUHDVH DFFHVV WR ÀVK DUH H[SHFWHG WR FRQWLQXH IRU PRVW 3,&7V LQ *URXS LQ DQG 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV DUH WKH PDLQ H[FHSWLRQV ² FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD LQ WKHLU ((=V DUH SURMHFWHG WR IDOO E\\ a DQG XQGHU $ LQ DQG E\\ a DQG XQGHU $ LQ UHVSHFWLYHO\\ 7DEOH +RZHYHU 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV DUH VWLOO H[SHFWHG WR FRQWLQXH WR PDNH UHODWLYHO\\ ODUJH FDWFKHV RI WXQD GHVSLWH WKH SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV 7KHVH FDWFKHV VKRXOG EH VXIÀFLHQW WR SURYLGH DFFHVV WR WKH ÀVK QHHGHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ DQG WR VXSSRUW VXEVWDQWLDO LQGXVWULDO ÀVKHULHV DQG SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV 6HFWLRQ &DWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD DUH DOVR SURMHFWHG WR IDOO VOLJKWO\\ LQ *XDP DQG 1DXUX XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR LQ 7DEOH 12.8 Period Oceanic fisheries Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Aquaculture West East Nearshore pelagic fish Other resources Ponds Coastal West East Present × × × × Ø × × × 2035 2Q EDODQFH WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ FDWFKHV IRU WKH VXUIDFH WXQD ÀVKHU\\ IURP WKH SUHOLPLQDU\\ PRGHOOLQJ ² LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH HDVW DQG GHFUHDVHV LQ WKH ZHVW ² LQGLFDWH WKDW WKHUH FRXOG EH PRUH DGYDQWDJHV WKDQ GLVDGYDQWDJHV IRU WKH UHJLRQ 7KH SRVVLEOH DGYDQWDJHV DUH WKDW WKH VLJQLÀFDQW FRQWULEXWLRQV WKDW OLFHQFH IHHV DOUHDG\\ PDNH WR JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH LQ .LULEDWL 7XYDOX 7RNHODX DQG 1DXUX 7DEOH ZRXOG EH H[SHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH DV FDWFK UDWHV LPSURYH LQ WKHLU ((=V JLYLQJ WKHVH 3,&7V WKH RSSRUWXQLW\\ WR QHJRWLDWH IRU LQFUHDVHG UHYHQXH 7KHVH SURMHFWHG EHQHÀWV DUH H[SHFWHG 5 10 20 30 5 10 20 30 3HUFHQWDJH LQFUHDVH 3HUFHQWDJH GHFUHDVH WR HQGXUH XQWLO XQGHU WKH $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULR IRU .LULEDWL 7XYDOX DQG 7RNHODX EXW RQO\\ XQWLO IRU 1DXUX 7DEOH 0RUH PRGHVW EHQHÀWV WR JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH DUH DOVR H[SHFWHG IRU $PHULFDQ 6DPRD )60 DQG 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV XQWLO XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR *URVV GRPHVWLF SURGXFW LQ 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV LV DOVR SURMHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH XQWLO DV D UHVXOW RI JUHDWHU FDWFKHV E\\ WKHLU LQGXVWULDO ÁHHW 7DEOH 6LPLODUO\\ FDQQLQJ RSHUDWLRQV LQ $PHULFDQ 6DPRD DUH H[SHFWHG WR EHQHÀW IURP WKH PRUH HDVWHUQ GLVWULEXWLRQ RI VNLSMDFN WXQD XQWLO XQGHU $ 7DEOH )LML PD\\ DOVR KDYH EHWWHU DFFHVV WR ÀVK IRU SURFHVVLQJ LQ WKH IXWXUH 7KHVH EHQHÀWV ZLOO GHSHQG RQ 3,&7V FRQWLQXLQJ WR GHYHORS PRUH ÁH[LEOH PDQDJHPHQW V\\VWHPV WR FRSH ZLWK WKH FKDQJLQJ VSDWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WXQD VWRFNV DQG ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW DQG OLPLWLQJ RYHUDOO FDWFKHV IURP WKH :&32 WR UHFRPPHQGHG OHYHOV &KDSWHU 7KH SRWHQWLDO GLVDGYDQWDJHV DUH WKDW WKH SURJUHVVLYH PRYHPHQW RI VNLSMDFN WXQD DQG XOWLPDWHO\\ ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW 6HFWLRQ IXUWKHU WR WKH HDVW PD\\ HYHQWXDOO\\ DIIHFW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI ÀVKLQJ DQG SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV WR *'3 DQG OLFHQFH IHHV WR JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH IRU VRPH 3,&7V LQ WKH ZHVWHUQ SDUW RI WKH UHJLRQ )60 3DODX 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV ,Q SDUWLFXODU WKH SODQV WR H[SDQG LQGXVWULDO ÀVKLQJ DQG SURFHVVLQJ LQ 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV WR GRPHVWLFDWH PRUH RI WKH EHQHÀWV IURP WXQD UHVRXUFHV FRXOG EH DIIHFWHG 7R REWDLQ VXIÀFLHQW VNLSMDFN DQG \\HOORZÀQ WXQD WR VXSSO\\ SURFHVVLQJ SODQWV 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV PD\\ KDYH WR UHGXFH WKH DFFHVV RI GLVWDQW ZDWHU ÀVKLQJ QDWLRQV WR WKHLU ((= WR SURYLGH PRUH ÀVK IRU QDWLRQDO YHVVHOV UHTXLUH GLVWDQW ZDWHU ÀVKLQJ QDWLRQV RSHUDWLQJ ZLWK WKHLU ]RQH WR ODQG D SURSRUWLRQ RI FDWFKHV IRU XVH E\\ ORFDO FDQQHULHV HQKDQFH H[LVWLQJ DUUDQJHPHQWV IRU WKHLU QDWLRQDO ÁHHW WR ÀVK LQ RWKHU ((=V DQG FUHDWH LQFHQWLYHV IRU WXQD FDXJKW LQ RWKHU ((=V WR EH ODQGHG LQ WKHLU SRUWV &KDSWHU &OHDUO\\ WKH OLNHO\\ HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN DQG \\HOORZÀQ WXQD DQG WKH IHDVLELOLW\\ RI REWDLQLQJ WKH ÀVK UHTXLUHG LQ WKH IXWXUH QHHG WR EH FRQVLGHUHG ZKHQ SODQQLQJ WKH H[SDQVLRQ RI QDWLRQDO ÁHHWV FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI QHZ FDQQHULHV DQG ORLQLQJ SODQWV DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI DQ\\ DGGLWLRQDO WUDQVVKLSSLQJ SRUWV ,Q WKH HYHQW WKDW WKH IRXU PHDVXUHV GHVFULEHG DERYH DUH QRW HQWLUHO\\ VXFFHVVIXO LQ VXSSO\\LQJ WKH ÀVK UHTXLUHG RU LQFXU FRVWV WKDW DIIHFW WKH SURÀWDELOLW\\ RI SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV SURGXFWLRQ IURP FDQQHULHV ZRXOG EH FXUWDLOHG $Q\\ VXFK HIIHFWV ZRXOG DOVR H[DFHUEDWH SUREOHPV WKDW FDQQHULHV LQ 31* PD\\ KDYH LQ WKH IXWXUH LI WKH SUHVHQW LPSRUW WDULII DGYDQWDJHV FRQIHUUHG E\\ WKH ,(3$ ZLWK WKH (8 6HFWLRQ DUH HYHQWXDOO\\ HURGHG RU ORVW 2YHUDOO KRZHYHU WKH HIIHFWV RI DQ\\ GHFOLQH LQ LQGXVWULDO VPDOOVFDOH FRPPHUFLDO WXQD ÀVKLQJ RSHUDWLRQV HFRQRPLFDOO\\ YLDEOH VPDOO FRQWULEXWLRQV WR WKH QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLHV RI WKHVH 3,&7V 7DEOHV DQG GLVWDQFHV LQYROYHG LQ WUDYHOOLQJ WR )$'V RXWVLGH WKH ODJRRQ PD\\ EH WRR JUHDW WR PDNH ,VODQGV ZRXOG EH OLPLWHG EHFDXVH LQGXVWULDO ÀVKLQJ DQG SURFHVVLQJ PDNH UHODWLYHO\\ WR EH DSSURSULDWH IRU FRPPXQLWLHV RQ WKH ZHVW FRDVW RI 1HZ &DOHGRQLD ZKHUH WKH ÀVKLQJ DQG SURFHVVLQJ GXH WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ WKH *'3 RI 31* DQG 6RORPRQ 12.9.2.2 Group 2 ,W 12.9.2 Food security 12.9.2.1 Group 1 7KHUH DUH IHZ LPSOLFDWLRQV IURP WKH SURMHFWHG HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV IRU WKH SODQV WR XVH ÀVK IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ LQ &RRN ,VODQGV 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV 1HZ &DOHGRQLD 3DODX 3LWFDLUQ ,VODQGV DQG 7RNHODX $OO WKHVH 3,&7V ZLOO FRQWLQXH WR KDYH ODUJH UDWLRV RI FRUDO UHHI DUHD SHU SHUVRQ XQGHU SUHGLFWHG UDWHV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK (YHQ WKH JUHDWHVW SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVH LQ SURGXFWLRQ RI ÀVK DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FRUDO UHHIV XQGHU WKH $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULR LQ &KDSWHU LV QRW H[SHFWHG WR DIIHFW DFFHVV WR WKH ÀVK QHHGHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH ORFDO DEXQGDQFH RI VNLSMDFN DQG \\HOORZÀQ WXQD ZKLFK FRPSULVH SDUW RI WKH QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF ÀVK FRPSRQHQW RI FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV LQ WKHVH 3,&7V &KDSWHU LV H[SHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH XQGHU FOLPDWH FKDQJH 7DEOH 2QH SRVVLEOH LPSOLFDWLRQ LV WKDW VPDOOVFDOH FRPPHUFLDO ÀVKHUV VXSSO\\LQJ XUEDQ PDUNHWV PD\\ KDYH WR WUDYHO JUHDWHU GLVWDQFHV WR PDLQWDLQ KDUYHVW OHYHOV EHFDXVH FDWFK SHU XQLW HIIRUW RI UHHIDVVRFLDWHG ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV FDQ EH H[SHFWHG WR GHFUHDVH DV FRUDO UHHIV GHJUDGH &KDSWHU $ SRVVLEOH LQFUHDVH LQ FLJXDWHUD LQ 3,&7V RXWVLGH WKH HTXDWRULDO ]RQH &KDSWHU DQG IXWXUH LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH FRVW RI IXHO ZRXOG FRPSRXQG WKLV VLWXDWLRQ 7R DYRLG WKH KLJKHU FRVWV RI WUDYHOOLQJ IXUWKHU WR ÀVK RU WUDQVSRUWLQJ ÀVK JUHDWHU GLVWDQFHV WR XUEDQ FHQWUHV LW PD\\ EH QHFHVVDU\\ WR VXSSOHPHQW ORFDO UHHIEDVHG ÀVK SURGXFWLRQ ZLWK FDWFKHV RI WXQD DURXQG DQFKRUHG LQVKRUH )$'V 6XFK LQYHVWPHQWV DUH H[SHFWHG WR EH IDYRXUHG E\\ WKH UHGLVWULEXWLRQ RI WXQD GXH WR WKH FKDQJLQJ FOLPDWH &KDSWHU +RZHYHU WKLV LQWHUYHQWLRQ LV XQOLNHO\\ WKUHDWHQLQJ WKH YLDELOLW\\ RI VPDOOVFDOH ÀVKHULHV EDVHG RQ UHHIDVVRFLDWHG VSHFLHV ,QFUHDVHG FRVWV IRU WUDQVSRUWLQJ FDWFK WR XUEDQ PDUNHWV PD\\ SUHYHQW VPDOOVFDOH FRPPHUFLDO ÀVKLQJ RSHUDWLRQV DW PRUH GLVWDQW XQÀVKHG ORFDWLRQV ,I VR JRYHUQPHQWV ZLOO QHHG WR SURYLGH LQFHQWLYHV IRU VXSSOHPHQWLQJ ORFDO UHHIEDVHG ÀVK SURGXFWLRQ ZLWK FDWFKHV IURP DQFKRUHG )$'V GHSOR\\HG FORVH HQRXJK WR XUEDQ FHQWUHV WR LPSURYH DFFHVV WR WXQD $Q\\ ULVNV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK LQYHVWLQJ LQ ÀVKLQJ DURXQG ORZFRVW )$'V DQFKRUHG LQVKRUH FDQ EH H[SHFWHG WR UHGXFH RYHU WLPH EHFDXVH VNLSMDFN DQG \\HOORZÀQ WXQD DUH SURMHFWHG WR EHFRPH PRUH DEXQGDQW LQ PRVW 3,&7V LQ *URXS XQGHU WKH % DQG $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV 7DEOH &KDSWHU 12.9.2.3 Group 3 7KH ODUJH VKRUWIDOOV LQ WKH ÀVK UHTXLUHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ DQG WKH FDWFKHV RI ÀVK OLNHO\\ WR EH DYDLODEOH IURP UHHIDVVRFLDWHG DQG IUHVKZDWHU KDELWDWV KDYH VHYHUDO SURIRXQG LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU 3,&7V LQ *URXS 7KHVH LPSOLFDWLRQV FHQWUH DURXQG WKH QHHG WR PDNH VHYHUDO UDSLG DQG HIIHFWLYH GHFLVLRQV WR SURYLGH DFFHVV WR WKH ÀVK UHTXLUHG IRU IRRG ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV DQG WKH KDELWDWV WKH\\ GHSHQG RQ ZLOO QHHG WR EH PDQDJHG DV ZHOO DV SRVVLEOH WR PLQLPLVH WKH JDS EHWZHHQ WKH DPRXQW RI ÀVK QHHGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ DQG WKH TXDQWLW\\ RI ÀVK WKDW FDQ EH KDUYHVWHG VXVWDLQDEO\\ )LJXUH 7KLV JDS DOUHDG\\ H[LVWV LQ VRPH 3,&7V 6HFWLRQ DQG LQFUHDVHV SURJUHVVLYHO\\ LQ DOO 3,&7V LQ *URXS GXH WR SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG WKH SURMHFWHG GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ VWRFNV 7DEOH *RRG PDQDJHPHQW ZLOO LPSURYH WKH RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK KDELWDWV DQG VWRFNV WR GHOLYHU WKHLU SRWHQWLDO VXVWDLQDEOH \\LHOGV LW ZLOO DOVR HQDEOH WKHVH QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV WR H[HUFLVH WKHLU SRWHQWLDO FDSDFLW\\ WR DGDSW WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH &KDSWHUV ² DQG 7KH NH\\ FRQVLGHUDWLRQV DQG PHDVXUHV LQYROYHG LQ RSWLPLVLQJ WKH PDQDJHPHQW RI FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU KDELWDWV DQG VWRFNV RI ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV DUH GHVFULEHG LQ &KDSWHU ¾ $VVHVVLQJ KRZ EHVW WR ÀOO WKH JDS :LWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI *XDP DQG 1DXUX ZKHUH HLWKHU IUHVK RU FDQQHG WXQD LV DOUHDG\\ UHTXLUHG WR SURYLGH WKH UHFRPPHQGHG NJ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV SUHVHQWO\\ KDYH WKH SRWHQWLDO WR PDNH VXEVWDQWLDO FRQWULEXWLRQV WR WKH ÀVK QHHGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ )LJXUH +RZHYHU WZR VWULNLQJ SDWWHUQV HPHUJH IURP RQZDUGV VHFXULW\\ LQ WKH ¾ ,PSURYLQJ PDQDJHPHQW RI QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV 6WRFNV RI FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU WKHUH LV D 3,&7V LQ *URXS &KDSWHU ZH KDYH QRW LQFOXGHG WKHP LQ WKH H[SRVXUH LQGH[ IRU WKH UHDVRQV RXWOLQHG LQ $SSHQGL[ 7KH DYDLODELOLW\\ RI DOO UHHIDVVRFLDWHG ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK ZDV PRGLÀHG E\\ WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV WR WKHLU SURGXFWLRQ XQGHU HDFK VFHQDULR $SSHQGL[ 7KH UHVXOWLQJ WRWDO DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ ZDV WKHQ GHGXFWHG IURP WKH NJ SHU SHUVRQ UHTXLUHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ WR HVWLPDWH WKH H[SRVXUH ( RI HDFK 3,&7 6HQVLWLYLW\\ 6 ZDV HVWLPDWHG DV WKH UHFRPPHQGHG OHYHO RI ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ NJ SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU RU KLJKHU QDWLRQDO OHYHOV RI FRQVXPSWLRQ ZKHUH WKHVH RFFXU 3RWHQWLDO LPSDFW 3, ZDV HVWLPDWHG DV ( [ 6 DQG WKHQ VWDQGDUGLVHG DQG QRUPDOLVHG 7KH FDSDFLW\\ RI 3,&7V LQ *URXS WR DGDSW WR VKRUWDJHV LQ WKH VXSSO\\ RI ÀVK ZDV FDOFXODWHG GLIIHUHQWO\\ WR WKH DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ LQGH[ XVHG WR DVVHVV WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ RI HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW DQG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH $SSHQGL[ 7KLV ZDV GRQH EHFDXVH LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI SODQV WR SURYLGH JUHDWHU DFFHVV WR RWKHU VRXUFHV RI ÀVK SXUFKDVLQJ SRZHU SOD\\V D JUHDWHU UROH LQ DOORZLQJ LQGLYLGXDOV WR DFTXLUH À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ÀVK EHFDXVH HVWLPDWHG KDUYHVWV DUH ODUJHO\\ SURMHFWHG WR SURYLGH NJ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU IRU WKH LQFUHDVHG SRSXODWLRQ 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV KDV D ORZ YXOQHUDELOLW\\ EHFDXVH WKH VKRUWIDOO RI NJ RI UHHIDVVRFLDWHG DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU SURMHFWHG WR RFFXU WKHUH LV PXFK ORZHU WKDQ IRU PRVW RWKHU 3,&7V H[FHSW 6DPRD ZKLFK KDV D PRGHUDWH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ GXH WR LWV WUDGLWLRQDOO\\ KLJK ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ 7DEOH *XDP DOVR KDV D PRGHUDWH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ EXW IRU D GLIIHUHQW UHDVRQ ² WKH SRWHQWLDO LPSDFW RI WKH JUHDW VKRUWDJHV RI UHHIDVVRFLDWHG ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ H[SHFWHG WR RFFXU WKHUH LV UHGXFHG E\\ VXEVWDQWLDO QDWLRQDO DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ 7KH YXOQHUDELOLW\\ RI &10, LV KLJK UDWKHU WKDQ YHU\\ KLJK IRU VLPLODU UHDVRQV $PHULFDQ 6DPRD 1DXUX 31* DQG 9DQXDWX KDYH D YHU\\ KLJK YXOQHUDELOLW\\ WR VKRUWDJHV LQ WKH UHFRPPHQGHG RU WUDGLWLRQDO OHYHOV RI ÀVK FRQVXPSWLRQ EHFDXVH RI WKH SURMHFWHG OLPLWDWLRQV WR WKH DPRXQW RI ÀVK DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ DQG ZHDN DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ 7DEOH [[ 6HH 6XSSOHPHQWDU\\ 7DEOHV ² ZZZVSFLQWFOLPDWHFKDQJHÀVKHULHVDVVHVVPHQW 3RWHQWLDO FRQWULEXWLRQV IURP SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH FRXOG KHOS GLYHUVLI\\ ORFDO ÀVK SURGXFWLRQ EXW ZLOO EH PLQRU FRPSDUHG WR WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV WKDW WXQD FDQ PDNH DW WKH QDWLRQDO OHYHO $VVXPLQJ WKHUH LV DGHTXDWH LQYHVWPHQW LQ IDUPLQJ V\\VWHPV DQG SURJUHVVLYH GHYHORSPHQW SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH KDV WKH SRWHQWLDO WR VXSSO\\ XS WR NJ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ DW WKH QDWLRQDO OHYHO E\\ NJ E\\ DQG NJ E\\ LQ 3,&7V LQ *URXS H[FHSW $PHULFDQ 6DPRD *XDP 1DXUX DQG &10, ZKHUH DUHDV IRU FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI SRQGV DUH OLPLWHG &KDSWHU 7KLV SRWHQWLDO UDWH RI SURGXFWLRQ PD\\ DOVR EH KDUG WR DFKLHYH LQ 31* GXH WR WKH SUHGLFWHG JURZWK RI WKH DOUHDG\\ ODUJH SRSXODWLRQ 2YHUDOO KRZHYHU PDQ\\ 3,&7V LQ *URXS ZLOO QHHG WR SURYLGH DFFHVV WR DQ DGGLWLRQDO ² NJ RI WXQD SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU E\\ WR VXSSO\\ WKH ÀVK UHFRPPHQGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ ,Q 3,&7V ZKHUH RQO\\ UHODWLYHO\\ VPDOO TXDQWLWLHV RI WXQD DUH KDUYHVWHG ZLWKLQ WKHLU ((=V $PHULFDQ 6DPRD *XDP &10, WKLV DFFHVV ZLOO GHSHQG KHDYLO\\ RQ ORFDO RU LPSRUWHG FDQQHG WXQD 7KH TXDQWLWLHV RI WXQD UHTXLUHG LQ )LML 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV DQG 6DPRD DUH VPDOOHU EXW VLJQLÀFDQW QRQHWKHOHVV $VVXPLQJ WKDW SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH IXOÀ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ÁRRGV &KDSWHU 7KH EHQHÀWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH IRU WKH SODQV WR LQFUHDVH DFFHVV WR ÀVK DUH H[SHFWHG WR FRQWLQXH IRU PRVW 3,&7V LQ *URXS LQ DQG 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV DUH WKH PDLQ H[FHSWLRQV ² FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD LQ WKHLU ((=V DUH SURMHFWHG WR IDOO E\\ a DQG XQGHU $ LQ DQG E\\ a DQG XQGHU $ LQ UHVSHFWLYHO\\ 7DEOH +RZHYHU 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV DUH VWLOO H[SHFWHG WR FRQWLQXH WR PDNH UHODWLYHO\\ ODUJH FDWFKHV RI WXQD GHVSLWH WKH SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV 7KHVH FDWFKHV VKRXOG EH VXIÀFLHQW WR SURYLGH DFFHVV WR WKH ÀVK QHHGHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ DQG WR VXSSRUW VXEVWDQWLDO LQGXVWULDO ÀVKHULHV DQG SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV 6HFWLRQ &DWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN WXQD DUH DOVR SURMHFWHG WR IDOO VOLJKWO\\ LQ *XDP DQG 1DXUX XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR LQ 7DEOH 12.8 Period Oceanic fisheries Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Aquaculture West East Nearshore pelagic fish Other resources Ponds Coastal West East Present × × × × Ø × × × 2035 2Q EDODQFH WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ FDWFKHV IRU WKH VXUIDFH WXQD ÀVKHU\\ IURP WKH SUHOLPLQDU\\ PRGHOOLQJ ² LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH HDVW DQG GHFUHDVHV LQ WKH ZHVW ² LQGLFDWH WKDW WKHUH FRXOG EH PRUH DGYDQWDJHV WKDQ GLVDGYDQWDJHV IRU WKH UHJLRQ 7KH SRVVLEOH DGYDQWDJHV DUH WKDW WKH VLJQLÀFDQW FRQWULEXWLRQV WKDW OLFHQFH IHHV DOUHDG\\ PDNH WR JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH LQ .LULEDWL 7XYDOX 7RNHODX DQG 1DXUX 7DEOH ZRXOG EH H[SHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH DV FDWFK UDWHV LPSURYH LQ WKHLU ((=V JLYLQJ WKHVH 3,&7V WKH RSSRUWXQLW\\ WR QHJRWLDWH IRU LQFUHDVHG UHYHQXH 7KHVH SURMHFWHG EHQHÀWV DUH H[SHFWHG 5 10 20 30 5 10 20 30 3HUFHQWDJH LQFUHDVH 3HUFHQWDJH GHFUHDVH WR HQGXUH XQWLO XQGHU WKH $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULR IRU .LULEDWL 7XYDOX DQG 7RNHODX EXW RQO\\ XQWLO IRU 1DXUX 7DEOH 0RUH PRGHVW EHQHÀWV WR JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH DUH DOVR H[SHFWHG IRU $PHULFDQ 6DPRD )60 DQG 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV XQWLO XQGHU WKH $ VFHQDULR *URVV GRPHVWLF SURGXFW LQ 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV LV DOVR SURMHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH XQWLO DV D UHVXOW RI JUHDWHU FDWFKHV E\\ WKHLU LQGXVWULDO ÁHHW 7DEOH 6LPLODUO\\ FDQQLQJ RSHUDWLRQV LQ $PHULFDQ 6DPRD DUH H[SHFWHG WR EHQHÀW IURP WKH PRUH HDVWHUQ GLVWULEXWLRQ RI VNLSMDFN WXQD XQWLO XQGHU $ 7DEOH )LML PD\\ DOVR KDYH EHWWHU DFFHVV WR ÀVK IRU SURFHVVLQJ LQ WKH IXWXUH 7KHVH EHQHÀWV ZLOO GHSHQG RQ 3,&7V FRQWLQXLQJ WR GHYHORS PRUH ÁH[LEOH PDQDJHPHQW V\\VWHPV WR FRSH ZLWK WKH FKDQJLQJ VSDWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WXQD VWRFNV DQG ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW DQG OLPLWLQJ RYHUDOO FDWFKHV IURP WKH :&32 WR UHFRPPHQGHG OHYHOV &KDSWHU 7KH SRWHQWLDO GLVDGYDQWDJHV DUH WKDW WKH SURJUHVVLYH PRYHPHQW RI VNLSMDFN WXQD DQG XOWLPDWHO\\ ÀVKLQJ HIIRUW 6HFWLRQ IXUWKHU WR WKH HDVW PD\\ HYHQWXDOO\\ DIIHFW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI ÀVKLQJ DQG SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV WR *'3 DQG OLFHQFH IHHV WR JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXH IRU VRPH 3,&7V LQ WKH ZHVWHUQ SDUW RI WKH UHJLRQ )60 3DODX 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV ,Q SDUWLFXODU WKH SODQV WR H[SDQG LQGXVWULDO ÀVKLQJ DQG SURFHVVLQJ LQ 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV WR GRPHVWLFDWH PRUH RI WKH EHQHÀWV IURP WXQD UHVRXUFHV FRXOG EH DIIHFWHG 7R REWDLQ VXIÀFLHQW VNLSMDFN DQG \\HOORZÀQ WXQD WR VXSSO\\ SURFHVVLQJ SODQWV 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV PD\\ KDYH WR UHGXFH WKH DFFHVV RI GLVWDQW ZDWHU ÀVKLQJ QDWLRQV WR WKHLU ((= WR SURYLGH PRUH ÀVK IRU QDWLRQDO YHVVHOV UHTXLUH GLVWDQW ZDWHU ÀVKLQJ QDWLRQV RSHUDWLQJ ZLWK WKHLU ]RQH WR ODQG D SURSRUWLRQ RI FDWFKHV IRU XVH E\\ ORFDO FDQQHULHV HQKDQFH H[LVWLQJ DUUDQJHPHQWV IRU WKHLU QDWLRQDO ÁHHW WR ÀVK LQ RWKHU ((=V DQG FUHDWH LQFHQWLYHV IRU WXQD FDXJKW LQ RWKHU ((=V WR EH ODQGHG LQ WKHLU SRUWV &KDSWHU &OHDUO\\ WKH OLNHO\\ HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ FDWFKHV RI VNLSMDFN DQG \\HOORZÀQ WXQD DQG WKH IHDVLELOLW\\ RI REWDLQLQJ WKH ÀVK UHTXLUHG LQ WKH IXWXUH QHHG WR EH FRQVLGHUHG ZKHQ SODQQLQJ WKH H[SDQVLRQ RI QDWLRQDO ÁHHWV FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI QHZ FDQQHULHV DQG ORLQLQJ SODQWV DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI DQ\\ DGGLWLRQDO WUDQVVKLSSLQJ SRUWV ,Q WKH HYHQW WKDW WKH IRXU PHDVXUHV GHVFULEHG DERYH DUH QRW HQWLUHO\\ VXFFHVVIXO LQ VXSSO\\LQJ WKH ÀVK UHTXLUHG RU LQFXU FRVWV WKDW DIIHFW WKH SURÀWDELOLW\\ RI SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV SURGXFWLRQ IURP FDQQHULHV ZRXOG EH FXUWDLOHG $Q\\ VXFK HIIHFWV ZRXOG DOVR H[DFHUEDWH SUREOHPV WKDW FDQQHULHV LQ 31* PD\\ KDYH LQ WKH IXWXUH LI WKH SUHVHQW LPSRUW WDULII DGYDQWDJHV FRQIHUUHG E\\ WKH ,(3$ ZLWK WKH (8 6HFWLRQ DUH HYHQWXDOO\\ HURGHG RU ORVW 2YHUDOO KRZHYHU WKH HIIHFWV RI DQ\\ GHFOLQH LQ LQGXVWULDO VPDOOVFDOH FRPPHUFLDO WXQD ÀVKLQJ RSHUDWLRQV HFRQRPLFDOO\\ YLDEOH VPDOO FRQWULEXWLRQV WR WKH QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLHV RI WKHVH 3,&7V 7DEOHV DQG GLVWDQFHV LQYROYHG LQ WUDYHOOLQJ WR )$'V RXWVLGH WKH ODJRRQ PD\\ EH WRR JUHDW WR PDNH ,VODQGV ZRXOG EH OLPLWHG EHFDXVH LQGXVWULDO ÀVKLQJ DQG SURFHVVLQJ PDNH UHODWLYHO\\ WR EH DSSURSULDWH IRU FRPPXQLWLHV RQ WKH ZHVW FRDVW RI 1HZ &DOHGRQLD ZKHUH WKH ÀVKLQJ DQG SURFHVVLQJ GXH WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ WKH *'3 RI 31* DQG 6RORPRQ 12.9.2.2 Group 2 ,W 12.9.2 Food security 12.9.2.1 Group 1 7KHUH DUH IHZ LPSOLFDWLRQV IURP WKH SURMHFWHG HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV IRU WKH SODQV WR XVH ÀVK IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ LQ &RRN ,VODQGV 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV 1HZ &DOHGRQLD 3DODX 3LWFDLUQ ,VODQGV DQG 7RNHODX $OO WKHVH 3,&7V ZLOO FRQWLQXH WR KDYH ODUJH UDWLRV RI FRUDO UHHI DUHD SHU SHUVRQ XQGHU SUHGLFWHG UDWHV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK (YHQ WKH JUHDWHVW SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVH LQ SURGXFWLRQ RI ÀVK DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FRUDO UHHIV XQGHU WKH $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULR LQ &KDSWHU LV QRW H[SHFWHG WR DIIHFW DFFHVV WR WKH ÀVK QHHGHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH ORFDO DEXQGDQFH RI VNLSMDFN DQG \\HOORZÀQ WXQD ZKLFK FRPSULVH SDUW RI WKH QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF ÀVK FRPSRQHQW RI FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV LQ WKHVH 3,&7V &KDSWHU LV H[SHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH XQGHU FOLPDWH FKDQJH 7DEOH 2QH SRVVLEOH LPSOLFDWLRQ LV WKDW VPDOOVFDOH FRPPHUFLDO ÀVKHUV VXSSO\\LQJ XUEDQ PDUNHWV PD\\ KDYH WR WUDYHO JUHDWHU GLVWDQFHV WR PDLQWDLQ KDUYHVW OHYHOV EHFDXVH FDWFK SHU XQLW HIIRUW RI UHHIDVVRFLDWHG ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV FDQ EH H[SHFWHG WR GHFUHDVH DV FRUDO UHHIV GHJUDGH &KDSWHU $ SRVVLEOH LQFUHDVH LQ FLJXDWHUD LQ 3,&7V RXWVLGH WKH HTXDWRULDO ]RQH &KDSWHU DQG IXWXUH LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH FRVW RI IXHO ZRXOG FRPSRXQG WKLV VLWXDWLRQ 7R DYRLG WKH KLJKHU FRVWV RI WUDYHOOLQJ IXUWKHU WR ÀVK RU WUDQVSRUWLQJ ÀVK JUHDWHU GLVWDQFHV WR XUEDQ FHQWUHV LW PD\\ EH QHFHVVDU\\ WR VXSSOHPHQW ORFDO UHHIEDVHG ÀVK SURGXFWLRQ ZLWK FDWFKHV RI WXQD DURXQG DQFKRUHG LQVKRUH )$'V 6XFK LQYHVWPHQWV DUH H[SHFWHG WR EH IDYRXUHG E\\ WKH UHGLVWULEXWLRQ RI WXQD GXH WR WKH FKDQJLQJ FOLPDWH &KDSWHU +RZHYHU WKLV LQWHUYHQWLRQ LV XQOLNHO\\ WKUHDWHQLQJ WKH YLDELOLW\\ RI VPDOOVFDOH ÀVKHULHV EDVHG RQ UHHIDVVRFLDWHG VSHFLHV ,QFUHDVHG FRVWV IRU WUDQVSRUWLQJ FDWFK WR XUEDQ PDUNHWV PD\\ SUHYHQW VPDOOVFDOH FRPPHUFLDO ÀVKLQJ RSHUDWLRQV DW PRUH GLVWDQW XQÀVKHG ORFDWLRQV ,I VR JRYHUQPHQWV ZLOO QHHG WR SURYLGH LQFHQWLYHV IRU VXSSOHPHQWLQJ ORFDO UHHIEDVHG ÀVK SURGXFWLRQ ZLWK FDWFKHV IURP DQFKRUHG )$'V GHSOR\\HG FORVH HQRXJK WR XUEDQ FHQWUHV WR LPSURYH DFFHVV WR WXQD $Q\\ ULVNV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK LQYHVWLQJ LQ ÀVKLQJ DURXQG ORZFRVW )$'V DQFKRUHG LQVKRUH FDQ EH H[SHFWHG WR UHGXFH RYHU WLPH EHFDXVH VNLSMDFN DQG \\HOORZÀQ WXQD DUH SURMHFWHG WR EHFRPH PRUH DEXQGDQW LQ PRVW 3,&7V LQ *URXS XQGHU WKH % DQG $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV 7DEOH &KDSWHU 12.9.2.3 Group 3 7KH ODUJH VKRUWIDOOV LQ WKH ÀVK UHTXLUHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ DQG WKH FDWFKHV RI ÀVK OLNHO\\ WR EH DYDLODEOH IURP UHHIDVVRFLDWHG DQG IUHVKZDWHU KDELWDWV KDYH VHYHUDO SURIRXQG LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU 3,&7V LQ *URXS 7KHVH LPSOLFDWLRQV FHQWUH DURXQG WKH QHHG WR PDNH VHYHUDO UDSLG DQG HIIHFWLYH GHFLVLRQV WR SURYLGH DFFHVV WR WKH ÀVK UHTXLUHG IRU IRRG ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV DQG WKH KDELWDWV WKH\\ GHSHQG RQ ZLOO QHHG WR EH PDQDJHG DV ZHOO DV SRVVLEOH WR PLQLPLVH WKH JDS EHWZHHQ WKH DPRXQW RI ÀVK QHHGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ DQG WKH TXDQWLW\\ RI ÀVK WKDW FDQ EH KDUYHVWHG VXVWDLQDEO\\ )LJXUH 7KLV JDS DOUHDG\\ H[LVWV LQ VRPH 3,&7V 6HFWLRQ DQG LQFUHDVHV SURJUHVVLYHO\\ LQ DOO 3,&7V LQ *URXS GXH WR SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG WKH SURMHFWHG GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ VWRFNV 7DEOH *RRG PDQDJHPHQW ZLOO LPSURYH WKH RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK KDELWDWV DQG VWRFNV WR GHOLYHU WKHLU SRWHQWLDO VXVWDLQDEOH \\LHOGV LW ZLOO DOVR HQDEOH WKHVH QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV WR H[HUFLVH WKHLU SRWHQWLDO FDSDFLW\\ WR DGDSW WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH &KDSWHUV ² DQG 7KH NH\\ FRQVLGHUDWLRQV DQG PHDVXUHV LQYROYHG LQ RSWLPLVLQJ WKH PDQDJHPHQW RI FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU KDELWDWV DQG VWRFNV RI ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV DUH GHVFULEHG LQ &KDSWHU ¾ $VVHVVLQJ KRZ EHVW WR ÀOO WKH JDS :LWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI *XDP DQG 1DXUX ZKHUH HLWKHU IUHVK RU FDQQHG WXQD LV DOUHDG\\ UHTXLUHG WR SURYLGH WKH UHFRPPHQGHG NJ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV SUHVHQWO\\ KDYH WKH SRWHQWLDO WR PDNH VXEVWDQWLDO FRQWULEXWLRQV WR WKH ÀVK QHHGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ )LJXUH +RZHYHU WZR VWULNLQJ SDWWHUQV HPHUJH IURP RQZDUGV VHFXULW\\ LQ WKH ¾ ,PSURYLQJ PDQDJHPHQW RI QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV 6WRFNV RI FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU WKHUH LV D FKDSWHUVVXSSWDEOHVSGI FKDSWHUVVXSSWDEOHVSGI "},{"text":" OWKRXJK VRPH RI WKLV DOORFDWLRQ ZLOO QHHG WR EH JLYHQ GLUHFWO\\ WR FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV WR FDWFK WXQD DURXQG LQVKRUH )$'V LW LV H[SHFWHG WR KDYH OLWWOH HIIHFW RQ WKH SURÀWDELOLW\\ RI WXQD FDQQHULHV LQ 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV EHFDXVH WKH SURFHVVLQJ IDFLOLWLHV DOUHDG\\ PDUNHW VXEVWDQWLDO SURSRUWLRQV RI WKHLU SURGXFWV RQ WKH GRPHVWLF PDUNHW DQG FDQQHG WXQD LV RQH RI WKH PRVW SUDFWLFDO YHKLFOHV IRU PDNLQJ PRUH ÀVK DYDLODEOH WR UDSLGO\\ JURZLQJ SRSXODWLRQV 1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU FDQQHULHV RI WKH UHODWLYH EHQHÀWV RI VDOHV WR ORFDO PDUNHWV YHUVXV H[SRUW PDUNHWV DQG WKH FRVWV LQYROYHG LQ VRXUFLQJ DGGLWLRQDO WXQD IURP RXWVLGH WKH ((= LI QHFHVVDU\\ UHTXLUH IRUPDO HFRQRPLF FRVW EHQHÀW DQDO\\VHV &KDSWHU $GGUHVVLQJ WKH LPSOLFDWLRQV RXWOLQHG LQ WKLV VHFWLRQ VKRXOG QRW EH GHIHUUHG ² WKH\\ DUH XUJHQW QDWLRQDO SULRULWLHV 0RVW 3,&7V LQ *URXS DUH DOUHDG\\ IDFLQJ PDMRU VKRUWIDOOV LQ WKH ÀVK QHHGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ RI WKHLU SRSXODWLRQV 7DEOH 7KHUHIRUH WKH PRVW DSSURSULDWH YHKLFOHV IRU ÀOOLQJ WKH JDS QHHG WR EH LGHQWLÀHG DQG GHYHORSHG %HFDXVH VXFK YHKLFOHV WDNH WLPH WR HVWDEOLVK RU VFDOHXS HYHQ )LML DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV VKRXOG HPEDUN RQ LPSOHPHQWLQJ WKHP QRZ $OWKRXJK ORZFRVW )$'V DQFKRUHG LQ LQVKRUH ZDWHUV WR LPSURYH DFFHVV WR WXQD IRU VXEVLVWHQFH ÀVKHUV DUH D ODUJH SDUW RI WKH VROXWLRQ WKHUH LV DOVR D QHHG WR HQFRXUDJH VPDOOVFDOH FRPPHUFLDO ÀVKLQJ RSHUDWLRQV DURXQG WKHVH )$'V DQG WR GHYHORS ÀVKHULHV IRU WKH VPDOOHU SHODJLF VSHFLHV &DWFKHV PDGH E\\ FRPPHUFLDO ÀVKHUV QRW RQO\\ KHOS SURYLGH DFFHVV WR ÀVK IRU KRXVHKROGV QRW HQJDJHG LQ KDUYHVWLQJ WKH LQFRPH GHULYHG DOVR LPSURYHV IRRG VHFXULW\\ 7DEOH $YHUDJH WRWDO WXQD FDWFK ² WDNHQ LQ WKH ((=V RI 3DSXD 1HZ *XLQHD 31* 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV DQG 1DXUX DQG WKH DPRXQW WKDW ZRXOG QHHG WR EH DOORFDWHG WR SURYLGH WKH ÀVK UHFRPPHQGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ RI WKHLU SRSXODWLRQV LQ DQG $OORFDWLRQV DUH GHVFULEHG DV WKH SHUFHQWDJHV RI DYHUDJH DQQXDO WRWDO WXQD FDWFK EDVHG RQ SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DORQH 3RSQ 7DEOH DQG RQ WKH UHGXFHG SURMHFWHG FDWFK GXH WR WKH HIIHFWV RI WKH $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULR $OO LQGLFHV KDYH EHHQ VWDQGDUGLVHG DQG QRUPDOLVHG ²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ppendix 12.2 Method for estimating changes in abundance of fish for food security due to climate change %HFDXVH PRVW RI WKH ÀVK [[LL HDWHQ LQ 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV 3,&7V FRPHV WUDGLWLRQDOO\\ IURP HDVLO\\ DFFHVVLEOH FRDVWDO KDELWDWV WKLV DQDO\\VLV KDV EHHQ OLPLWHG WR WKH HIIHFWV RI SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV WR WKH WKUHH FRPSRQHQWV RI FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FRUDO UHHIV DQG RWKHU FRDVWDO KDELWDWV XVHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ LQ WKH UHJLRQ GHPHUVDO ÀVK ') QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF ÀVK 163 DQG VKDOORZ VXEWLGDO DQG LQWHUWLGDO LQYHUWHEUDWHV 6,, &KDSWHU 3URMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ &KDSWHU KDYH DOVR EHHQ FRQVLGHUHG LQ WKH FDVH RI FRPPXQLWLHV IRU VRPH 3,&7V 7R HVWLPDWH FKDQJHV LQ WKH SURGXFWLYLW\\ RI ÀVK DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ IURP HDFK RI WKH WKUHH FRPSRQHQWV RI FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV IRU HDFK 3,&7 LQ DQG XQGHU WKH % DQGRU $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV ZH DVVXPHG WKDW WKH SUHVHQWGD\\ FRPELQHG VXVWDLQDEOH KDUYHVWV RI ') 163 DQG 6,, DUH HTXLYDOHQW WR WKH PHGLDQ HVWLPDWH IRU SURGXFWLRQ RI ÀVK DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FRUDO UHHIV LH WRQQHV SHU NP RI FRUDO UHHI SHU \\HDU &KDSWHU ,Q PDNLQJ WKLV DVVXPSWLRQ LW LV LPSOLFLW WKDW WKH DUHDV RI FRUDO UHHI &KDSWHU XVHG WR SURGXFH WKH HVWLPDWHV DOVR LQFOXGH ODJRRQV ZLWK VHDJUDVVHV DQG LQWHUWLGDO ÁDWV &KDSWHU 7KH DVVHVVPHQWV DOVR DVVXPH WKDW WKHUH ZLOO EH QR FKDQJH LQ WKH LQFLGHQFH RI FLJXDWHUD ÀVK SRLVRQLQJ ZKLFK HIIHFWLYHO\\ UHGXFHV WKH FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ DYDLODEOH IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ &KDSWHU (VWLPDWHV RI WRWDO DYDLODEOH ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ IRU HDFK 3,&7 LQ DQG XQGHU WKH % DQGRU $ VFHQDULRV ZHUH WKHUHIRUH FDOFXODWHG DV WKH DUHD RI FRUDO UHHI PXOWLSOLHG E\\ WRQQHV RI ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ SHU NP RI UHHI SHU \\HDU GLYLGHG E\\ WKH SUHGLFWHG SRSXODWLRQ 7KHVH HVWLPDWHV ZHUH WKHQ SDUWLWLRQHG WR LGHQWLI\\ WKH SURSRUWLRQ FRQWULEXWHG E\\ ') 163 DQG 6,, EDVHG RQ WKH HVWLPDWHG SURSRUWLRQV RI ') 163 DQG 6,, PDNLQJ XS FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV LQ HDFK 3,&7 &KDSWHU +RZHYHU EHFDXVH D SURSRUWLRQ RI 163 LQ HDFK 3,&7 LV GHULYHG IURP WXQD VSHFLHV ZKLFK KDYH OLWWOH GHSHQGHQFH RQ FRDVWDO KDELWDWV VHH EHORZ WKH UHODWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI ') WKH QRQ WXQD FRPSRQHQW RI 163 DQG 6,, WR WKH HVWLPDWHV RI WRQQHV RI ÀVK SHU NP RI UHHI SHU \\HDU KDG WR EH UHFDOFXODWHG 7KLV ZDV GRQH DV RXWOLQHG LQ WKH K\\SRWKHWLFDO H[DPSOH EHORZ ZKHUH RI 163 LV FRPSULVHG RI WXQD 7R HVWLPDWH WKH HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DORQH RQ WKH DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ LQ WKH IXWXUH UHODWLYH WR WKH UHFRPPHQGHG NJ SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU HVWLPDWHG VXVWDLQDEOH SURGXFWLRQ UHHI DUHD [ WRQQHV SHU NP SHU \\HDU ZDV GLYLGHG E\\ WKH SUHGLFWHG SRSXODWLRQ 7R HVWLPDWH WKH HIIHFWV RI WKH SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV LQ WKH ') QRQWXQD 163 DQG 6,, DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ IRU WKH % DQGRU $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULRV LQ DQG WKH SURSRUWLRQV RI ') QRQWXQD 163 DQG 6,, FRQWULEXWLRQV WR DQQXDO DYDLODELOLW\\ RI FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV SURGXFWLRQ SHU SHUVRQ ZHUH DGMXVWHG E\\ WKH SHUFHQWDJHV GHULYHG IURP &KDSWHU DQG VXPPDULVHG LQ WKH WDEOH EHORZ 7KH SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ SURGXFWLRQ RI IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK XQGHU DOO VFHQDULRV &KDSWHU DUH DOVR VKRZQ (VWLPDWHV ZHUH EDVHG RQ WKH PLGSRLQW RI WKH UDQJHV JLYHQ LQ WKH WDEOH EHORZ SORUHG WKH DYDLODELOLW\\ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU DW SURGXFWLRQ OHYHOV RI DQG WRQQHV SHU NP SHU \\HDU WR FRQVLGHU VLWXDWLRQV ZKHUH SURGXFWLRQ PD\\ EH QDWXUDOO\\ KLJKHU RU KLJKHU GXH WR JRRG PDQDJHPHQW DQG QDWXUDOO\\ ORZHU RU ORZHU GXH WR SRRU PDQDJHPHQW &KDSWHU (VWLPDWHV RI ÀVK OLNHO\\ WR EH UHDGLO\\ DYDLODEOH IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ LQ IXWXUH WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW D HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DORQH DQG E DGGLWLRQDO HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH $Q H[DPSOH RI WKHVH RXWSXWV IRU D K\\SRWKHWLFDO FRXQWU\\ LV JLYHQ EHORZ D &KDQJH LQ ÀVK DYDLODEOH SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU LQ GXH WR SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK &KDQJH LQ À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ÀVKHU\\ 6HFWLRQ KRZHYHU LW LV YHU\\ OLNHO\\ WKDW FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV FRXOG PDNH VXEVWDQWLDO FDWFKHV RI WXQD LI WKH\\ DUH SURYLGHG ZLWK DFFHVV DQG DSSURSULDWH ÀVKLQJ PHWKRGV 7XQD UHSUHVHQW D ¶VDIHW\\ QHW• IRU IXWXUH VXSSOLHV RI ÀVK LQ WKH WURSLFDO 3DFLÀF 6HFWLRQ CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 12 *XDP Nauru *XDPNauru 2010 (350 t) 2035 (504 t) DFFHVV WR ÀVK VHH EHORZ +RZHYHU XQOHVV WKH EHQHÀWV RI WKH OXFUDWLYH PLQLQJ DQG 2010 (6549 t) 2035 (8764 t) JDV LQGXVWULHV LQ 31* Á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² AC index Food security e 0.35 0.89 0.18 0.24 0.37 0.37 0.82 0.30 0.37 0.37 0.62 0.51 0.37 0.49 0.76 0.47 0.43 0.39 0.38 0.36 0.44 2010 (350 t) 2035 (504 t) DFFHVV WR ÀVK VHH EHORZ +RZHYHU XQOHVV WKH EHQHÀWV RI WKH OXFUDWLYH PLQLQJ DQG 2010 (6549 t) 2035 (8764 t) JDV LQGXVWULHV LQ 31* Á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² AC index Food security e 0.35 0.89 0.18 0.24 0.37 0.37 0.82 0.30 0.37 0.37 0.62 0.51 0.37 0.49 0.76 0.47 0.43 0.39 0.38 0.36 0.44 • GHVFULEHG LQ 6HFWLRQ DQG &KDSWHU IRU FDWFKLQJ DQG GLVWULEXWLQJ WXQD WKDW DOORZ ERWK VXEVLVWHQFH ÀVKHUV LQ UXUDO DUHDV DQG XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQV WR DFFHVV WKLV LPSRUWDQW UHVRXUFH LQ ZD\\V WKH\\ FDQ DIIRUG $OWKRXJK QRW DOO RI WKH SRVVLEOH YHKLFOHV DSSO\\ WR HYHU\\ 3,&7 LQ *URXS 7DEOH PDQ\\ QDWLRQDO JRYHUQPHQWV ZLOO QHHG WR HVWDEOLVK QHWZRUNV RI LQVKRUH )$'V IRU WKH EHQHÀW RI FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV DV SDUW RI WKH QDWLRQDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ DQG SURYLGH LQFHQWLYHV IRU HQWHUSULVHV LQ XUEDQ DUHDV WR VWRUH GLVWULEXWH DQG VHOO ORZHU JUDGH VPDOO WXQD DQG E\\FDWFK ODQGHG E\\ LQGXVWULDO ÁHHWV &KDSWHU 7R HQVXUH WKDW SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH FDQ DOVR IXOÀOO LWV SRWHQWLDO WR KHOS FORVH WKH JDS IRU LQODQG FRPPXQLWLHV ZLWK GLIÀFXOW\\ JDLQLQJ DFFHVV WR WXQD JRYHUQPHQWV ZLOO QHHG WR UHFRQFLOH WKH XVH RI SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ ZLWK DQ\\ SRVVLEOH HIIHFWV RQ IUHVKZDWHU ELRGLYHUVLW\\ &KDSWHU DQG LPSOHPHQW WKH DVVRFLDWHG SROLFLHV GHVFULEHG LQ &KDSWHU 7KH XVH RI ÀVK IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ LQ LQODQG DUHDV RI 31* LV H[SHFWHG WR UHPDLQ D SUREOHP KRZHYHU EHFDXVH SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH PD\\ RQO\\ HYHU KDYH WKH SRWHQWLDO WR VXSSO\\ ² NJ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU 7UDQVSRUWLQJ FDQQHG WXQD SURGXFHG E\\ WKH H[SDQGLQJ QXPEHU RI ÀVK SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV LQ 31* WR LQODQG FRPPXQLWLHV LV DQRWKHU SRVVLEOH ZD\\ RI LQFUHDVLQJ Fish needed (tonnes x 1000) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 2050 (570 t) 2100 (730 t) 2050 (9374 t) 2100 (10,355 t) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Fish needed (tonnes x 1000) LQFRPH WR SXUFKDVH PRUH FDQQHG WXQD 7DEOH 3RVVLEOH YHKLFOHV IRU SURYLGLQJ DFFHVV WR WKH DGGLWLRQDO ÀVK QHHGHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ LQ 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV 3,&7V LQ *URXS PICT Inshore FADs* Landed tuna and bycatch Local canned tuna Imported canned tuna** Pond aquaculture Melanesia Fiji x Longline x x x a,e PNG x Purse-seine x x x a Solomon Islands x Purse-seine x x x b Vanuatu x Longline x x a Micronesia Guam x Longline x x c Nauru x No fish landed x x d CNMI x Longline x x c Polynesia American Samoa x Longline, purse-seine x x x c Samoa x Longline x x a )$'V ORZFRVW DQFKRUHG ÀVK DJJUHJDWLQJ GHYLFHV LQFOXGHV RWKHU ÀVK FDXJKW DQGRU FDQQHG RXWVLGH WKH UHJLRQ HJ PDFNHUHO D SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH HVWDEOLVKHG XVLQJ WLODSLD E SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH XVLQJ WLODSLD XQGHU FRQVLGHUDWLRQ F OLPLWHG FDSDFLW\\ WR H[SDQG SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH G OLPLWHG FDSDFLW\\ WR H[SDQG SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH DQG PLONÀVK LV WKH SUHIHUUHG VSHFLHV H SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH RI PLONÀVK XQGHU GHYHORSPHQW ¾ $OORFDWLQJ WXQD IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ 7KH TXDQWLWLHV RI WXQD UHTXLUHG IRU IXWXUH IRRG VHFXULW\\ LQ 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV GZDUI WKH DPRXQWV QHHGHG E\\ WKH RWKHU 3,&7V LQ *URXS )LJXUH 7RJHWKHU ZLWK 1DXUX 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV DOVR VWDQG RXW IURP WKH RWKHU 3,&7V LQ *URXS DV WKH RQO\\ FRXQWULHV ZKHUH UHFHQW FDWFKHV RI WXQD IURP WKHLU QDWLRQDO ((=V DQG DUFKLSHODJLF ZDWHUV FDQ GLUHFWO\\ VXSSO\\ WKH DGGLWLRQDO ÀVK UHTXLUHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ 7DEOH $Q LPSRUWDQW LPSOLFDWLRQ IRU 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV LV WKDW GXH WR WKH HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DORQH DQ LQFUHDVLQJ SURSRUWLRQ RI DQQXDO DYHUDJH WXQD FDWFKHV ZLOO QHHG WR EH DOORFDWHG RYHU WLPH WR SURYLGH WKH TXDQWLWLHV RI ÀVK WKHLU SRSXODWLRQV QHHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ 7DEOH 7KHVH SURSRUWLRQV UHDFK DQG IRU 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV UHVSHFWLYHO\\ LQ LQFUHDVLQJ WR DQG LQ 7KH SURMHFWHG HIIHFWV RI WKH $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULR RQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG DEXQGDQFH RI VNLSMDFN WXQD 7DEOH LQGLFDWH WKDW WKHVH SURSRUWLRQV ZRXOG LQFUHDVH PDUJLQDOO\\ LQ DQG WR a IRU 31* DQG a IRU 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV E\\ 7DEOH $PICT Average total tuna catch (tonnes) Tuna needed for food 2035 2050 2100 Tonnes % catch (Popn) % catch (A2) Tonnes % catch (Popn) % catch (A2) Tonnes % catch (Popn) % catch (A2) PNG 436,357 62,059 14 14 94,786 22 24 186,996 43 61 Solomon Islands 111,796 9289 8 8 17,919 16 17 42,286 38 45 Nauru 58,792 477 1 1 526 1 1 637 1 1 12.9.3 Livelihoods 7KH LPSOLFDWLRQV RI WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ SURGXFWLRQ RI RFHDQLF FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH IRU SODQV WR FUHDWH DGGLWLRQDO VXVWDLQDEOH OLYHOLKRRGV IURP WKHVH UHVRXUFHV DUH WKDW PRUH ÁH[LEOH DUUDQJHPHQWV PD\\ QHHG WR EH PDGH WR HQVXUH WKDW WXQD FDQ EH VXSSOLHG FRVWHIIHFWLYHO\\ WR WKH H[LVWLQJ DQG SURSRVHG FDQQHULHV DQG ORLQLQJ HQWHUSULVHV LQ WKH UHJLRQ DQG OLYHOLKRRGV PD\\ QHHG WR EH VZLWFKHG IURP RQH UHVRXUFH WR DQRWKHU 7R HQVXUH WKDW WKH WXQD SURFHVVLQJ SODQWV LQ 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV REWDLQ VXIÀFLHQW ÀVK DW UHDVRQDEOH SULFHV DV VNLSMDFN DQG \\HOORZÀQ WXQD PRYH IXUWKHU WR QDWLRQDO ÁHHWV QHJRWLDWLQJ DFFHVV IRU WKHLU YHVVHOV WR ÀVK PRUH UHJXODUO\\ LQ RWKHU ]RQHV DQG SURYLGLQJ LQFHQWLYHV IRU ÀVK FDXJKW LQ WKH ((=V RI QHLJKERXULQJ FRXQWULHV WR EH GHOLYHUHG WR WKHLU FDQQHULHV 6XFK PHDVXUHV PD\\ QHHG WR EH LQWURGXFHG VRRQHU UDWKHU WKDQ ODWHU LI FRPSHWLWLRQ IRU FDQQLQJ WXQD GULYHQ E\\ D SRWHQWLDO JOREDO H[FHVV LQ SURFHVVLQJ FDSDFLW\\ OLPLWV WKH VXSSO\\ RI ÀVK WR QDWLRQDO FDQQHULHV $ IXOO (FRQRPLF 3DUWQHUVKLS $JUHHPHQW (3$ ZLWK WKH (8 VKRXOG EH RI JUHDW DVVLVWDQFH WR 31* LQ WKLV UHJDUG EHFDXVH LW FKDQQHOV ÀVK IURP WKH UHJLRQ GHVWLQHG IRU (8 PDUNHWV WKURXJK 31* 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV ZRXOG DOVR EHQHÀW IURP DQ ,(3$ DQG IXOO (3$ ZLWK WKH (8 7KH WXQD FDQQHULHV LQ )LML 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV SURYLGH UHJLRQDOO\\ VLJQLÀFDQW QXPEHUV RI MREV 7DEOH DQG DQ\\ UHGXFWLRQV LQ WKHLU FDSDFLW\\ FDQ EH H[SHFWHG WR KDYH VXEVWDQWLDO HIIHFWV RQ PDQ\\ KRXVHKROGV LQ WRZQV VXFK DV /HYXND 0DGDQJ /DH DQG 1RUR :LWKLQ WKH FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV VHFWRU WKH HIIRUW RI VPDOOVFDOH ÀVKHUV ZLOO QHHG WR EH LQFUHDVLQJO\\ WUDQVIHUUHG IURP GHPHUVDO ÀVK DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FRUDO UHHIV PDQJURYHV DQG VHDJUDVVHV WR QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF VSHFLHV SDUWLFXODUO\\ VNLSMDFN DQG \\HOORZÀQ WXQD $ SUDFWLFDO ZD\\ RI GRLQJ WKLV ZLOO EH WR LQYHVW LQ QHWZRUNV RI DQFKRUHG LQVKRUH )$'V DV GHVFULEHG LQ6HFWLRQ 7UDQVIHUULQJ HIIRUW WR QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF VSHFLHV LV QRW RQO\\ H[SHFWHG WR PDLQWDLQ WKH OLYHOLKRRGV RI ÀVKHUV DV WKH SURMHFWHG GHFOLQHV LQ FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV RFFXU &KDSWHU LW VKRXOG FUHDWH DGGLWLRQDO MRE RSSRUWXQLWLHV LQ VHYHUDO 3,&7V EHFDXVH RI WKH OLNHO\\ LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH DEXQGDQFH RI WXQD 7DEOH )RU DTXDFXOWXUH PXFK RI WKH SRWHQWLDO IRU JURZWK LQ MREV LV H[SHFWHG WR EH EDVHG RQ IDUPLQJ IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK LQ SRQGV 6XFK HQWHUSULVHV DUH OLNHO\\ WR EH HQKDQFHG E\\ WKH SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ UDLQIDOO DQG WHPSHUDWXUH +RZHYHU JRYHUQPHQWV PD\\ QHHG WR SURYLGH LQFHQWLYHV IRU WKH SULYDWH VHFWRU WR LQYHVW LQ WKH KDWFKHULHV DQG RWKHU LQIUDVWUXFWXUH UHTXLUHG WR FDSLWDOLVH RQ WKHVH RSSRUWXQLWLHV 12.10 Conclusions 2Q EDODQFH WKH 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV DSSHDU WR EH LQ D EHWWHU SRVLWLRQ WKDQ QDWLRQV LQ RWKHU UHJLRQV WR FRSH ZLWK WKH LPSOLFDWLRQV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH IRU ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH $OWKRXJK WKH FKDQJHV LQ GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG DEXQGDQFH RI WXQD SURMHFWHG IURP SUHOLPLQDU\\ PRGHOOLQJ DUH OLNHO\\ WR UHTXLUH PRUH ÁH[LEOH DSSURDFKHV IRU VXSSO\\LQJ H[LVWLQJ DQG SURSRVHG FDQQHULHV DQG PD\\ HYHQWXDOO\\ UHGXFH *'3 DQGRU JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXHV VOLJKWO\\ IRU D IHZ FRXQWULHV LQ WKH ZHVWHUQ 3DFLÀF WKH H[SHFWHG HIIHFWV IRU WKH UHJLRQ DV D ZKROH DUH DPRQJ WKH EHWWHU SRVVLEOH 1DXUX 7XYDOX DQG 7RNHODX DUH OLNHO\\ WR UHFHLYH JUHDWHU EHQHÀWV DV WKH ÀVK PRYH HDVW ZKHUHDV WKH SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV LQ SURGXFWLRQ RFFXU LQ WKRVH 3,&7V ZKHUH LQGXVWULDO ÀVKLQJ DQG SURFHVVLQJ PDNH RQO\\ PRGHVW FRQWULEXWLRQV WR *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW 63& 9DQXDWX $TXDFXOWXUH 'HYHORSPHQW 3ODQ ² 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\\ 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD ))$ 7KH 9DOXH RI :&3)& 7XQD )LVKHULHV 8QSXEOLVKHG UHSRUW )RUXP )LVKHULHV $JHQF\\ +RQLDUD 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV PICT Melanesia Fiji New Caledonia PNG Solomon Islands Vanuatu Micronesia FSM Guam Kiribati Marshall Islands Nauru CNMI Palau Polynesia American Samoa Cook Islands French Polynesia Niue Samoa Tokelau Tonga Tuvalu DF SII NSP non-tuna 62.5% 12.5% 25% [[LL 8VHG LQ WKH EURDG VHQVH WR LQFOXGH ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV $GMXVWHG SHUFHQWDJH RI FRDVWDO ¿VKHULHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FRUDO UHHIV 8000 Wallis and Futuna RXWFRPHV ,Q SDUWLFXODU 3,&7V ZLWK WKH JUHDWHVW GHSHQGHQFH RQ WXQD HJ .LULEDWL 7KH ULFK WXQD UHVRXUFHV RI WKH UHJLRQ DOVR SURPLVH WR SURYLGH 3,&7V LQ *URXSV DQG ZLWK RSWLRQV WR GHOLYHU DFFHVV WR WKH ÀVK UHFRPPHQGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ H[FHSW IRU SRSXODWLRQV LQ LQODQG 31* DV WKH SURMHFWHG SURGXFWLRQ RI FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV GHFOLQHV GXH WR WKH GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH &KDSWHU (YHQ LQ FRXQWULHV OLNH 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV ZKHUH DEXQGDQFHV RI WXQD DUH SURMHFWHG WR GHFOLQH SURJHVVLYHO\\ WKHUH VKRXOG VWLOO EH DPSOH WXQD WR XVH IRU QDWLRQDO IRRG VHFXULW\\ ² LW LV D PDWWHU RI DOORFDWLQJ WKH UHTXLUHG SURSRUWLRQ RI DYHUDJH WXQD FDWFKHV IRU WKLV SXUSRVH 7KH LQFUHDVHG UDLQIDOO H[SHFWHG WR RFFXU WKURXJKRXW WKH WURSLFDO 3DFLÀF LQ WKH IXWXUH GHYHORSPHQW RI SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH 7KLV LV OLNHO\\ WR EH PRVW LPSRUWDQW IRU WKH LQODQG SRSXODWLRQV LQ )LML 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV DQG IRU WKH UDSLGO\\ JURZLQJ XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQV LQ WKHVH FRXQWULHV +LJKHU IXWXUH UDLQIDOO DQG ZDWHU WHPSHUDWXUHV DUH DOVR H[SHFWHG WR LPSURYH WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV LQ 0HODQHVLD 7KH YDULRXV DGDSWDWLRQV DQG SROLFLHV QHHGHG WR KDUQHVV WKH RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU JUHDWHU FRQWULEXWLRQV IURP ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH WR HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW IRRG VHFXULW\\ DQG OLYHOLKRRGV H[SHFWHG WR UHVXOW IURP WKH FKDQJLQJ FOLPDWH DQG WKH PHDVXUHV QHHGHG WR UHGXFH WKH WKUHDWV DUH GHVFULEHG LQ GHWDLO LQ &KDSWHU 3DWWHUQV RI YXOQHUDELOLW\\ DQG UHFRYHU\\ RI VHD FXFXPEHU VWRFNV LPSDFWHG E\\ ÀVKLQJ )LVK DQG )LVKHULHV ² 63& 6WDWXV 5HSRUW 1HDUVKRUH DQG 5HHI )LVKHULHV DQG $TXDFXOWXUH 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\\ 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD ZZZVSFLQWPUGPLQLVWHUV 0,1:3FRDVWDOÀVKHULHVVWDWXVDQQH[DSGI %HOO -' &OXD ( +DLU &$ *DO]LQ 5 DQG 'RKHUW\\ 3-7KH FDSWXUH DQG FXOWXUH RI SRVW ODUYDO ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV IRU WKH PDULQH RUQDPHQWDO WUDGH 5HYLHZV LQ )LVKHULHV 6FLHQFH ² %DTXHUR -0DULQH 2UQDPHQWDOV 7UDGH 4XDOLW\\ DQG 6XVWDLQDELOLW\\ IRU WKH 3DFLÀF 5HJLRQ 6RXWK 3DFLÀF )RUXP 6HFUHWDULDW 6XYD )LML .RURYXODYXOD , 2•*DUUD 7 )RQJ 3 DQG 5DWXQLDWD 5 (FRQRPLF 9DOXDWLRQ ² ,TROLTROL ² 7RXULVP 6WXG\\ 5HSRUW LQ )LML 8QLYHUVLW\\ RI WKH 6RXWK 3DFLÀF DQG &5,63 3URJUDPPH 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\\ 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD ZZZFULVSRQOLQHQHW 2•*DUUD 7 (VWLPDWLQJ WKH 7RWDO (FRQRPLF 9DOXH 7(9 RI WKH 1DYDNDYX /RFDOO\\0DQDJHG 0DULQH $UHD 9LWL /HYX )LML 8QLYHUVLW\\ RI WKH 6RXWK 3DFLÀF ,QVWLWXW GH OD 5HFKHUFKH SRXU OH 'pYHORSSHPHQW 5HVHDUFK 5HSRUW DQG &5,63 3URJUDPPH 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\\ 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD ZZZFULVSRQOLQHQHW 6WXGLHV LQ 9DQXDWX 6RXWK 3DFLÀF &5,63 3URJUDPPH 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\\ 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD ZZZFULVSRQOLQHQHW +LOERUQ 5 6WRNHV . 0DJXLUH --6PLWK 7 DQG RWKHUV :KHQ FDQ PDULQH UHVHUYHV LPSURYH ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW\" 2FHDQ DQG &RDVWDO 0DQDJHPHQW ² 6DOH 3) &RZHQ 5. 'DQLORZLF] %6 -RQHV *3 DQG RWKHUV &ULWLFDO VFLHQFH JDSV LPSHGH XVH RI QRWDNH ÀVKHU\\ UHVHUYHV 7UHQGV LQ (FRORJ\\ DQG (YROXWLRQ ² D 'HFDGH RI 3URJUHVV WKURXJK 2IÀFLDO DQG 3URYLVLRQDO 6WDWLVWLFV 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\\ $TXDFXOWXUH 7HFKQLFDO 5HSRUW 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD FRXQWULHV 0DULQH 3ROLF\\ ² 50% 10% 20% 20% 63& 63& $TXDFXOWXUH $FWLRQ 3ODQ 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\\ +RVFK * ,88 )LVKLQJ 2YHUFDSDFLW\\ DQG WKH 1HHG IRU 6RXQG )LVKHULHV 0DQDJHPHQW (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ $&3 )LVKHULHV &RPPLWWHH %UXVVHOV %HOJLXP %DUFOD\\ . ,PSDFWV RI WXQD LQGXVWULHV RQ FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV LQ 3DFLÀF ,VODQG Infant 0.76 0.98 0.03 0.00 0.67 0.47 0.89 0.23 0.47 0.33 0.96 0.75 0.89 0.83 0.97 0.95 0.73 0.46 0.77 0.51 1.00 DF SII NSP non-tuna NSP tuna 3HUFHQWDJH RI FRDVWDO ¿VKHU\\ VKRZLQJ FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WXQD 10,000 mortality 5 2000 100,000 100 150,000 42 17 8 67 3RQLD % $ 5HYLHZ RI 3DFLÀF $TXDFXOWXUH LQ WKH 3DFLÀF ,VODQGV ² 7UDFNLQJ )$2 5HSRUW RI WKH ([SHUW &RQVXOWDWLRQ RQ %HVW 3UDFWLFHV IRU 6DIHW\\ DW 6HD LQ WKH )LVKHULHV 6HFWRU 5RPH ² 1RYHPEHU )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 5RPH ,WDO\\ IWSIWSIDRRUJGRFUHSIDRLHLHSGI 5LFH -DQG *DUFLD 6 )LVKHULHV IRRG VHFXULW\\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG ELRGLYHUVLW\\ &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH VHFWRU DQG SHUVSHFWLYHV RQ HPHUJLQJ LVVXHV ,&(6 -RXUQDO RI 0DULQH 6FLHQFH ² Health Life 50% 10% 40% 3 2000 100,000 60 150,000 25 10 5 40 expectancy Index a 0.48 0.57 0.92 0.94 0 0.1 0.29 0.2 0.56 0.6 0.54 0.52 1 0.96 0.29 0.27 0.57 0.54 0.72 0.59 0.89 0.91 0.64 0.68 0.77 0.81 0.71 0.75 0.88 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.8 0.78 0.63 0.58 0.68 0.71 0.4 0.44 DF SII NSP 10,000 1 2000 100,000 20 150,000 8 3 2 13 0.86 3HUFHQWDJH RI FRDVWDO ¿VKHU\\ Tonnes Production (tonnes per km 2 per year) Reef area (km 2 ) Popn in 2010 Total fish per person in 2010 (kg) Popn in 2100 DF (kg) (kg) (kg) (kg) in 2100 tuna SII per person NSP non-Total fish 0.90 5RPH ,WDO\\ 3DVFDO 1 &RVW%HQHÀW $QDO\\VLV RI &RPPXQLW\\EDVHG 0DULQH 3URWHFWHG $UHDV &DVH ² :+2 7RZDUGV D )RRG 6HFXUH 3DFLÀF )UDPHZRUN IRU $FWLRQ RQ )RRG 6HFXULW\\ LQ WKH 3DFLÀF :RUOG +HDOWK 2UJDQL]DWLRQ 0DQLOD 3KLOLSSLQHV *LOOHWW 5 DQG /LJKWIRRW & 7KH &RQWULEXWLRQ RI )LVKHULHV WR WKH (FRQRPLHV RI 3DFLÀF ,VODQG &RXQWULHV 3DFLÀF 6WXGLHV 6HULHV $VLDQ 'HYHORSPHQW %DQN 0DQLOD 3KLOLSSLQHV +DOO 6-&OLPDWH FKDQJH DQG RWKHU H[WHUQDO GULYHUV LQ VPDOOVFDOH ÀVKHULHV 3UDFWLFDO VWHSV IRU UHVSRQGLQJ ,Q 5 3RPHUR\\ DQG 1/ $QGUHZ HGV 0DQDJLQJ 6PDOO 6FDOH )LVKHULHV )UDPHZRUNV DQG $SSURDFKHV IRU WKH 'HYHORSLQJ :RUOG &$%, /RQGRQ 8QLWHG .LQJGRP SS ² $OOLVRQ (+ %pQp & DQG $QGUHZ 1/ 3RYHUW\\ UHGXFWLRQ DV D PHDQV WR HQKDQFH UHVLOLHQFH LQ VPDOOVFDOH ÀVKHULHV ,Q 5 3RPHUR\\ DQG 1/ $QGUHZ HGV 0DQDJLQJ 6PDOO 6FDOH )LVKHULHV )UDPHZRUNV DQG $SSURDFKHV IRU WKH 'HYHORSLQJ :RUOG &$%, /RQGRQ 8QLWHG .LQJGRP SS ² :LOVRQ -DQG 0F&R\\ 0 6WXG\\ RI WKH ,PSDFW RI (QHUJ\\ 3ULFH )OXFWXDWLRQV RQ )LVKHULHV LQ WKH 3DFLÀF ZLWK (PSKDVLV RQ WKH 7XQD ,QGXVWU\\ 7KH :RUOG %DQN :DVKLQJWRQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV RI $PHULFD *LOOHWW 5 6HD 6DIHW\\ LQ WKH 3DFLÀF ,VODQGV 7KH 5HODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ 7XQD )LVKHU\\ 0DQDJHPHQW DQG 6HD 6DIHW\\ )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV Education Literacy 0.99 0.99 0.62 0.85 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.95 0.99 nea 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 15-24 years Primary school enrolment 0.94 0.99 0.77 0.94 0.93 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.90 0.60 1.00 0.93 nea 1.00 0.99 1.00 0.90 1.00 0.95 1.00 0.99 Annual growth rate (period) Adaptive capacity (AC)* Governance index c Index b 0.97 0.32 0.99 0.43 0.67 0.26 0.88 0.33 0.89 0.59 0.97 0.56 0.97 0.72 0.97 0.55 0.95 0.51 0.86 0.56 0.97 0.59 0.97 0.59 nea 0.76 0.99 0.38 0.99 0.43 0.99 0.38 0.96 0.63 0.99 0.75 0.98 0.41 0.99 0.58 0.99 0.43 Scenario Freshwater fisheries DF NSP non-tuna SII West** East*** B1/A2 2035 -2 to -5% -4% -3% 0% +2.5% B1 2100* -20% -10 to -15% -4% -5% +2.5 to +7.5% A2 2100 -20 to -50% -10 to -25% -8% -10% +2.5 to +12.5% growth rate Rate of change of Component of coastal fisheries )ULHGPDQ . (ULNVVRQ . 7DUG\\ ( DQG 3DNR . 0DQDJHPHQW RI VHD FXFXPEHU VWRFNV %DUQHWW -)RRG VHFXULW\\ DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH LQ WKH 6RXWK 3DFLÀF 3DFLÀF (FRORJLVW DOVR SURYLGHV VHYHUDO 3,&7V ZLWK WKH RSSRUWXQLW\\ WR LQFUHDVH DFFHVV WR ÀVK WKURXJK 3DUHWL 6 $ WXQD FDUWHO\" ,VODQGV %XVLQHVV 0DJD]LQH -XQH ² .LQFK -3XUFHOO 6 8WKLFNH 6 DQG )ULHGPDQ . 3RSXODWLRQ VWDWXV ÀVKHULHV DQG WUDGH RI VHD FXFXPEHUV LQ WKH :HVWHUQ &HQWUDO 3DFLÀF ,Q 9 7RUDO*UDQGD $ /RYDWHOOL DQG 0 9DVFRQFHOORV HGV 6HD &XFXPEHUV $ *OREDO 5HYLHZ RI )LVKHULHV DQG 7UDGH )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 5RPH ,WDO\\ SS ² 1HZWRQ . &RWH ,0 3LOOLQJ *0 -HQQLQJV 6 DQG 'XOY\\ 1. &XUUHQW DQG IXWXUH VXVWDLQDELOLW\\ RI LVODQG FRUDO UHHI ÀVKHULHV &XUUHQW %LRORJ\\ ² .URQHQ 0 0DJURQ ) 0F$UGOH % DQG 9XQLVHD $ 5HHI ÀQÀVKLQJ SUHVVXUH ULVN PRGHO IRU 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV )LVKHULHV 5HVHDUFK ² )ULHGPDQ . 3XUFHOO 6 %HOO -DQG +DLU & 6HD &XFXPEHU )LVKHULHV $ 0DQDJHU•V 7RROER[ $XVWUDOLDQ &HQWUH IRU ,QWHUQDWLRQDO $JULFXOWXUDO 5HVHDUFK &DQEHUUD $XVWUDOLD .DXIPDQQ ' .UDD\\ $ DQG 0DVWUX]]L 0 *RYHUQDQFH 0DWWHUV 9,, $JJUHJDWH DQG ,QGLYLGXDO *RYHUQDQFH ,QGLFDWRUV ² 7KH :RUOG %DQN :DVKLQJWRQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV RI $PHULFD 7XUQHU %/ .DVSHUVRQ 5( 0DWVRQ 3$ 0F&DUWK\\ --DQG RWKHUV $ IUDPHZRUN IRU YXOQHUDELOLW\\ DQDO\\VLV LQ VXVWDLQDELOLW\\ VFLHQFH 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 1DWLRQDO $FDGHP\\ RI AC index Economic 0.49 0.84 0.26 0.35 0.53 0.52 0.85 0.45 0.52 0.52 0.72 0.63 0.45 0.60 0.77 0.62 0.61 0.58 0.54 0.51 0.70 Production (tonnes per km 2 per year) Reef area (km 2 ) Popn in 2010 Total fish per person in 2010 (kg) Popn in 2100 DF a (kg) NSP non-tuna b (kg) SII c (kg) Total fish per person in 2100 (kg) development d 1 2000 100,000 20 150,000 7 3 2 12 6FLHQFHV RI WKH 86$ ² 9LQFHQW . 8QFHUWDLQW\\ LQ DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ DQG WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI VFDOH *OREDO (QYLURQPHQWDO &KDQJH+XPDQ DQG 3ROLF\\ 'LPHQVLRQV ² 1RUPDQ/RSH] $ 3DVFRH 6 DQG +REGD\\ $-(FRQRPLF LPSDFWV RI LJQRULQJ FOLPDWH FKDQJH IRU $XVWUDOLDQ ÀVKHULHV DQG DVVRFLDWHG VHFWRUV 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH WK %LHQQLDO &RQIHUHQFH RI WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO ,QVWLWXWH RI )LVKHULHV (FRQRPLFV DQG 7UDGH 0RQWSHOOLHU )UDQFH Size of economy GDP per person Index 3175 0.09 29,898 1.00 991 0.01 753 0.00 2127 0.05 2183 0.05 22,661 0.75 653 0 2851 0.08 2807 0.07 12,638 0.41 8423 0.27 6995 0.22 8553 0.27 22,427 0.74 5828 0.18 2872 0.08 1000 0.01 2319 0.06 1831 0.04 14,552 0.47 3 2000 100,000 60 150,000 20 9 5 34 5 2000 100,000 100 150,000 33 15 8 56 D ') [ E 163 QRQWXQD [ F 6,, [ Annual growth rate • GHVFULEHG LQ 6HFWLRQ DQG &KDSWHU IRU FDWFKLQJ DQG GLVWULEXWLQJ WXQD WKDW DOORZ ERWK VXEVLVWHQFH ÀVKHUV LQ UXUDO DUHDV DQG XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQV WR DFFHVV WKLV LPSRUWDQW UHVRXUFH LQ ZD\\V WKH\\ FDQ DIIRUG $OWKRXJK QRW DOO RI WKH SRVVLEOH YHKLFOHV DSSO\\ WR HYHU\\ 3,&7 LQ *URXS 7DEOH PDQ\\ QDWLRQDO JRYHUQPHQWV ZLOO QHHG WR HVWDEOLVK QHWZRUNV RI LQVKRUH )$'V IRU WKH EHQHÀW RI FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV DV SDUW RI WKH QDWLRQDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ DQG SURYLGH LQFHQWLYHV IRU HQWHUSULVHV LQ XUEDQ DUHDV WR VWRUH GLVWULEXWH DQG VHOO ORZHU JUDGH VPDOO WXQD DQG E\\FDWFK ODQGHG E\\ LQGXVWULDO ÁHHWV &KDSWHU 7R HQVXUH WKDW SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH FDQ DOVR IXOÀOO LWV SRWHQWLDO WR KHOS FORVH WKH JDS IRU LQODQG FRPPXQLWLHV ZLWK GLIÀFXOW\\ JDLQLQJ DFFHVV WR WXQD JRYHUQPHQWV ZLOO QHHG WR UHFRQFLOH WKH XVH RI SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ ZLWK DQ\\ SRVVLEOH HIIHFWV RQ IUHVKZDWHU ELRGLYHUVLW\\ &KDSWHU DQG LPSOHPHQW WKH DVVRFLDWHG SROLFLHV GHVFULEHG LQ &KDSWHU 7KH XVH RI ÀVK IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ LQ LQODQG DUHDV RI 31* LV H[SHFWHG WR UHPDLQ D SUREOHP KRZHYHU EHFDXVH SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH PD\\ RQO\\ HYHU KDYH WKH SRWHQWLDO WR VXSSO\\ ² NJ RI ÀVK SHU SHUVRQ SHU \\HDU 7UDQVSRUWLQJ FDQQHG WXQD SURGXFHG E\\ WKH H[SDQGLQJ QXPEHU RI ÀVK SURFHVVLQJ RSHUDWLRQV LQ 31* WR LQODQG FRPPXQLWLHV LV DQRWKHU SRVVLEOH ZD\\ RI LQFUHDVLQJ Fish needed (tonnes x 1000) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 2050 (570 t) 2100 (730 t) 2050 (9374 t) 2100 (10,355 t) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Fish needed (tonnes x 1000) LQFRPH WR SXUFKDVH PRUH FDQQHG WXQD 7DEOH 3RVVLEOH YHKLFOHV IRU SURYLGLQJ DFFHVV WR WKH DGGLWLRQDO ÀVK QHHGHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ LQ 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV 3,&7V LQ *URXS PICT Inshore FADs* Landed tuna and bycatch Local canned tuna Imported canned tuna** Pond aquaculture Melanesia Fiji x Longline x x x a,e PNG x Purse-seine x x x a Solomon Islands x Purse-seine x x x b Vanuatu x Longline x x a Micronesia Guam x Longline x x c Nauru x No fish landed x x d CNMI x Longline x x c Polynesia American Samoa x Longline, purse-seine x x x c Samoa x Longline x x a )$'V ORZFRVW DQFKRUHG ÀVK DJJUHJDWLQJ GHYLFHV LQFOXGHV RWKHU ÀVK FDXJKW DQGRU FDQQHG RXWVLGH WKH UHJLRQ HJ PDFNHUHO D SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH HVWDEOLVKHG XVLQJ WLODSLD E SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH XVLQJ WLODSLD XQGHU FRQVLGHUDWLRQ F OLPLWHG FDSDFLW\\ WR H[SDQG SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH G OLPLWHG FDSDFLW\\ WR H[SDQG SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH DQG PLONÀVK LV WKH SUHIHUUHG VSHFLHV H SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH RI PLONÀVK XQGHU GHYHORSPHQW ¾ $OORFDWLQJ WXQD IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ 7KH TXDQWLWLHV RI WXQD UHTXLUHG IRU IXWXUH IRRG VHFXULW\\ LQ 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV GZDUI WKH DPRXQWV QHHGHG E\\ WKH RWKHU 3,&7V LQ *URXS )LJXUH 7RJHWKHU ZLWK 1DXUX 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV DOVR VWDQG RXW IURP WKH RWKHU 3,&7V LQ *URXS DV WKH RQO\\ FRXQWULHV ZKHUH UHFHQW FDWFKHV RI WXQD IURP WKHLU QDWLRQDO ((=V DQG DUFKLSHODJLF ZDWHUV FDQ GLUHFWO\\ VXSSO\\ WKH DGGLWLRQDO ÀVK UHTXLUHG IRU IRRG VHFXULW\\ 7DEOH $Q LPSRUWDQW LPSOLFDWLRQ IRU 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV LV WKDW GXH WR WKH HIIHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DORQH DQ LQFUHDVLQJ SURSRUWLRQ RI DQQXDO DYHUDJH WXQD FDWFKHV ZLOO QHHG WR EH DOORFDWHG RYHU WLPH WR SURYLGH WKH TXDQWLWLHV RI ÀVK WKHLU SRSXODWLRQV QHHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ 7DEOH 7KHVH SURSRUWLRQV UHDFK DQG IRU 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV UHVSHFWLYHO\\ LQ LQFUHDVLQJ WR DQG LQ 7KH SURMHFWHG HIIHFWV RI WKH $ HPLVVLRQV VFHQDULR RQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG DEXQGDQFH RI VNLSMDFN WXQD 7DEOH LQGLFDWH WKDW WKHVH SURSRUWLRQV ZRXOG LQFUHDVH PDUJLQDOO\\ LQ DQG WR a IRU 31* DQG a IRU 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV E\\ 7DEOH $PICT Average total tuna catch (tonnes) Tuna needed for food 2035 2050 2100 Tonnes % catch (Popn) % catch (A2) Tonnes % catch (Popn) % catch (A2) Tonnes % catch (Popn) % catch (A2) PNG 436,357 62,059 14 14 94,786 22 24 186,996 43 61 Solomon Islands 111,796 9289 8 8 17,919 16 17 42,286 38 45 Nauru 58,792 477 1 1 526 1 1 637 1 1 12.9.3 Livelihoods 7KH LPSOLFDWLRQV RI WKH SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ SURGXFWLRQ RI RFHDQLF FRDVWDO DQG IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH IRU SODQV WR FUHDWH DGGLWLRQDO VXVWDLQDEOH OLYHOLKRRGV IURP WKHVH UHVRXUFHV DUH WKDW PRUH ÁH[LEOH DUUDQJHPHQWV PD\\ QHHG WR EH PDGH WR HQVXUH WKDW WXQD FDQ EH VXSSOLHG FRVWHIIHFWLYHO\\ WR WKH H[LVWLQJ DQG SURSRVHG FDQQHULHV DQG ORLQLQJ HQWHUSULVHV LQ WKH UHJLRQ DQG OLYHOLKRRGV PD\\ QHHG WR EH VZLWFKHG IURP RQH UHVRXUFH WR DQRWKHU 7R HQVXUH WKDW WKH WXQD SURFHVVLQJ SODQWV LQ 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV REWDLQ VXIÀFLHQW ÀVK DW UHDVRQDEOH SULFHV DV VNLSMDFN DQG \\HOORZÀQ WXQD PRYH IXUWKHU WR QDWLRQDO ÁHHWV QHJRWLDWLQJ DFFHVV IRU WKHLU YHVVHOV WR ÀVK PRUH UHJXODUO\\ LQ RWKHU ]RQHV DQG SURYLGLQJ LQFHQWLYHV IRU ÀVK FDXJKW LQ WKH ((=V RI QHLJKERXULQJ FRXQWULHV WR EH GHOLYHUHG WR WKHLU FDQQHULHV 6XFK PHDVXUHV PD\\ QHHG WR EH LQWURGXFHG VRRQHU UDWKHU WKDQ ODWHU LI FRPSHWLWLRQ IRU FDQQLQJ WXQD GULYHQ E\\ D SRWHQWLDO JOREDO H[FHVV LQ SURFHVVLQJ FDSDFLW\\ OLPLWV WKH VXSSO\\ RI ÀVK WR QDWLRQDO FDQQHULHV $ IXOO (FRQRPLF 3DUWQHUVKLS $JUHHPHQW (3$ ZLWK WKH (8 VKRXOG EH RI JUHDW DVVLVWDQFH WR 31* LQ WKLV UHJDUG EHFDXVH LW FKDQQHOV ÀVK IURP WKH UHJLRQ GHVWLQHG IRU (8 PDUNHWV WKURXJK 31* 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV ZRXOG DOVR EHQHÀW IURP DQ ,(3$ DQG IXOO (3$ ZLWK WKH (8 7KH WXQD FDQQHULHV LQ )LML 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV SURYLGH UHJLRQDOO\\ VLJQLÀFDQW QXPEHUV RI MREV 7DEOH DQG DQ\\ UHGXFWLRQV LQ WKHLU FDSDFLW\\ FDQ EH H[SHFWHG WR KDYH VXEVWDQWLDO HIIHFWV RQ PDQ\\ KRXVHKROGV LQ WRZQV VXFK DV /HYXND 0DGDQJ /DH DQG 1RUR :LWKLQ WKH FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV VHFWRU WKH HIIRUW RI VPDOOVFDOH ÀVKHUV ZLOO QHHG WR EH LQFUHDVLQJO\\ WUDQVIHUUHG IURP GHPHUVDO ÀVK DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FRUDO UHHIV PDQJURYHV DQG VHDJUDVVHV WR QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF VSHFLHV SDUWLFXODUO\\ VNLSMDFN DQG \\HOORZÀQ WXQD $ SUDFWLFDO ZD\\ RI GRLQJ WKLV ZLOO EH WR LQYHVW LQ QHWZRUNV RI DQFKRUHG LQVKRUH )$'V DV GHVFULEHG LQ6HFWLRQ 7UDQVIHUULQJ HIIRUW WR QHDUVKRUH SHODJLF VSHFLHV LV QRW RQO\\ H[SHFWHG WR PDLQWDLQ WKH OLYHOLKRRGV RI ÀVKHUV DV WKH SURMHFWHG GHFOLQHV LQ FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV RFFXU &KDSWHU LW VKRXOG FUHDWH DGGLWLRQDO MRE RSSRUWXQLWLHV LQ VHYHUDO 3,&7V EHFDXVH RI WKH OLNHO\\ LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH DEXQGDQFH RI WXQD 7DEOH )RU DTXDFXOWXUH PXFK RI WKH SRWHQWLDO IRU JURZWK LQ MREV LV H[SHFWHG WR EH EDVHG RQ IDUPLQJ IUHVKZDWHU ÀVK LQ SRQGV 6XFK HQWHUSULVHV DUH OLNHO\\ WR EH HQKDQFHG E\\ WKH SURMHFWHG LQFUHDVHV LQ UDLQIDOO DQG WHPSHUDWXUH +RZHYHU JRYHUQPHQWV PD\\ QHHG WR SURYLGH LQFHQWLYHV IRU WKH SULYDWH VHFWRU WR LQYHVW LQ WKH KDWFKHULHV DQG RWKHU LQIUDVWUXFWXUH UHTXLUHG WR FDSLWDOLVH RQ WKHVH RSSRUWXQLWLHV 12.10 Conclusions 2Q EDODQFH WKH 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV DSSHDU WR EH LQ D EHWWHU SRVLWLRQ WKDQ QDWLRQV LQ RWKHU UHJLRQV WR FRSH ZLWK WKH LPSOLFDWLRQV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH IRU ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH $OWKRXJK WKH FKDQJHV LQ GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG DEXQGDQFH RI WXQD SURMHFWHG IURP SUHOLPLQDU\\ PRGHOOLQJ DUH OLNHO\\ WR UHTXLUH PRUH ÁH[LEOH DSSURDFKHV IRU VXSSO\\LQJ H[LVWLQJ DQG SURSRVHG FDQQHULHV DQG PD\\ HYHQWXDOO\\ UHGXFH *'3 DQGRU JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXHV VOLJKWO\\ IRU D IHZ FRXQWULHV LQ WKH ZHVWHUQ 3DFLÀF WKH H[SHFWHG HIIHFWV IRU WKH UHJLRQ DV D ZKROH DUH DPRQJ WKH EHWWHU SRVVLEOH 1DXUX 7XYDOX DQG 7RNHODX DUH OLNHO\\ WR UHFHLYH JUHDWHU EHQHÀWV DV WKH ÀVK PRYH HDVW ZKHUHDV WKH SURMHFWHG GHFUHDVHV LQ SURGXFWLRQ RFFXU LQ WKRVH 3,&7V ZKHUH LQGXVWULDO ÀVKLQJ DQG SURFHVVLQJ PDNH RQO\\ PRGHVW FRQWULEXWLRQV WR *'3 DQG JRYHUQPHQW 63& 9DQXDWX $TXDFXOWXUH 'HYHORSPHQW 3ODQ ² 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\\ 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD ))$ 7KH 9DOXH RI :&3)& 7XQD )LVKHULHV 8QSXEOLVKHG UHSRUW )RUXP )LVKHULHV $JHQF\\ +RQLDUD 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV PICT Melanesia Fiji New Caledonia PNG Solomon Islands Vanuatu Micronesia FSM Guam Kiribati Marshall Islands Nauru CNMI Palau Polynesia American Samoa Cook Islands French Polynesia Niue Samoa Tokelau Tonga Tuvalu DF SII NSP non-tuna 62.5% 12.5% 25% [[LL 8VHG LQ WKH EURDG VHQVH WR LQFOXGH ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV $GMXVWHG SHUFHQWDJH RI FRDVWDO ¿VKHULHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FRUDO UHHIV 8000 Wallis and Futuna RXWFRPHV ,Q SDUWLFXODU 3,&7V ZLWK WKH JUHDWHVW GHSHQGHQFH RQ WXQD HJ .LULEDWL 7KH ULFK WXQD UHVRXUFHV RI WKH UHJLRQ DOVR SURPLVH WR SURYLGH 3,&7V LQ *URXSV DQG ZLWK RSWLRQV WR GHOLYHU DFFHVV WR WKH ÀVK UHFRPPHQGHG IRU JRRG QXWULWLRQ H[FHSW IRU SRSXODWLRQV LQ LQODQG 31* DV WKH SURMHFWHG SURGXFWLRQ RI FRDVWDO ÀVKHULHV GHFOLQHV GXH WR WKH GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH &KDSWHU (YHQ LQ FRXQWULHV OLNH 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV ZKHUH DEXQGDQFHV RI WXQD DUH SURMHFWHG WR GHFOLQH SURJHVVLYHO\\ WKHUH VKRXOG VWLOO EH DPSOH WXQD WR XVH IRU QDWLRQDO IRRG VHFXULW\\ ² LW LV D PDWWHU RI DOORFDWLQJ WKH UHTXLUHG SURSRUWLRQ RI DYHUDJH WXQD FDWFKHV IRU WKLV SXUSRVH 7KH LQFUHDVHG UDLQIDOO H[SHFWHG WR RFFXU WKURXJKRXW WKH WURSLFDO 3DFLÀF LQ WKH IXWXUH GHYHORSPHQW RI SRQG DTXDFXOWXUH 7KLV LV OLNHO\\ WR EH PRVW LPSRUWDQW IRU WKH LQODQG SRSXODWLRQV LQ )LML 31* DQG 6RORPRQ ,VODQGV DQG IRU WKH UDSLGO\\ JURZLQJ XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQV LQ WKHVH FRXQWULHV +LJKHU IXWXUH UDLQIDOO DQG ZDWHU WHPSHUDWXUHV DUH DOVR H[SHFWHG WR LPSURYH WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI IUHVKZDWHU ÀVKHULHV LQ 0HODQHVLD 7KH YDULRXV DGDSWDWLRQV DQG SROLFLHV QHHGHG WR KDUQHVV WKH RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU JUHDWHU FRQWULEXWLRQV IURP ÀVKHULHV DQG DTXDFXOWXUH WR HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW IRRG VHFXULW\\ DQG OLYHOLKRRGV H[SHFWHG WR UHVXOW IURP WKH FKDQJLQJ FOLPDWH DQG WKH PHDVXUHV QHHGHG WR UHGXFH WKH WKUHDWV DUH GHVFULEHG LQ GHWDLO LQ &KDSWHU 3DWWHUQV RI YXOQHUDELOLW\\ DQG UHFRYHU\\ RI VHD FXFXPEHU VWRFNV LPSDFWHG E\\ ÀVKLQJ )LVK DQG )LVKHULHV ² 63& 6WDWXV 5HSRUW 1HDUVKRUH DQG 5HHI )LVKHULHV DQG $TXDFXOWXUH 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\\ 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD ZZZVSFLQWPUGPLQLVWHUV 0,1:3FRDVWDOÀVKHULHVVWDWXVDQQH[DSGI %HOO -' &OXD ( +DLU &$ *DO]LQ 5 DQG 'RKHUW\\ 3-7KH FDSWXUH DQG FXOWXUH RI SRVW ODUYDO ÀVK DQG LQYHUWHEUDWHV IRU WKH PDULQH RUQDPHQWDO WUDGH 5HYLHZV LQ )LVKHULHV 6FLHQFH ² %DTXHUR -0DULQH 2UQDPHQWDOV 7UDGH 4XDOLW\\ DQG 6XVWDLQDELOLW\\ IRU WKH 3DFLÀF 5HJLRQ 6RXWK 3DFLÀF )RUXP 6HFUHWDULDW 6XYD )LML .RURYXODYXOD , 2•*DUUD 7 )RQJ 3 DQG 5DWXQLDWD 5 (FRQRPLF 9DOXDWLRQ ² ,TROLTROL ² 7RXULVP 6WXG\\ 5HSRUW LQ )LML 8QLYHUVLW\\ RI WKH 6RXWK 3DFLÀF DQG &5,63 3URJUDPPH 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\\ 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD ZZZFULVSRQOLQHQHW 2•*DUUD 7 (VWLPDWLQJ WKH 7RWDO (FRQRPLF 9DOXH 7(9 RI WKH 1DYDNDYX /RFDOO\\0DQDJHG 0DULQH $UHD 9LWL /HYX )LML 8QLYHUVLW\\ RI WKH 6RXWK 3DFLÀF ,QVWLWXW GH OD 5HFKHUFKH SRXU OH 'pYHORSSHPHQW 5HVHDUFK 5HSRUW DQG &5,63 3URJUDPPH 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\\ 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD ZZZFULVSRQOLQHQHW 6WXGLHV LQ 9DQXDWX 6RXWK 3DFLÀF &5,63 3URJUDPPH 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\\ 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD ZZZFULVSRQOLQHQHW +LOERUQ 5 6WRNHV . 0DJXLUH --6PLWK 7 DQG RWKHUV :KHQ FDQ PDULQH UHVHUYHV LPSURYH ÀVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW\" 2FHDQ DQG &RDVWDO 0DQDJHPHQW ² 6DOH 3) &RZHQ 5. 'DQLORZLF] %6 -RQHV *3 DQG RWKHUV &ULWLFDO VFLHQFH JDSV LPSHGH XVH RI QRWDNH ÀVKHU\\ UHVHUYHV 7UHQGV LQ (FRORJ\\ DQG (YROXWLRQ ² D 'HFDGH RI 3URJUHVV WKURXJK 2IÀFLDO DQG 3URYLVLRQDO 6WDWLVWLFV 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\\ $TXDFXOWXUH 7HFKQLFDO 5HSRUW 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD 1RXPHD 1HZ &DOHGRQLD FRXQWULHV 0DULQH 3ROLF\\ ² 50% 10% 20% 20% 63& 63& $TXDFXOWXUH $FWLRQ 3ODQ 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 3DFLÀF &RPPXQLW\\ +RVFK * ,88 )LVKLQJ 2YHUFDSDFLW\\ DQG WKH 1HHG IRU 6RXQG )LVKHULHV 0DQDJHPHQW (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ $&3 )LVKHULHV &RPPLWWHH %UXVVHOV %HOJLXP %DUFOD\\ . ,PSDFWV RI WXQD LQGXVWULHV RQ FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV LQ 3DFLÀF ,VODQG Infant 0.76 0.98 0.03 0.00 0.67 0.47 0.89 0.23 0.47 0.33 0.96 0.75 0.89 0.83 0.97 0.95 0.73 0.46 0.77 0.51 1.00 DF SII NSP non-tuna NSP tuna 3HUFHQWDJH RI FRDVWDO ¿VKHU\\ VKRZLQJ FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WXQD 10,000 mortality 5 2000 100,000 100 150,000 42 17 8 67 3RQLD % $ 5HYLHZ RI 3DFLÀF $TXDFXOWXUH LQ WKH 3DFLÀF ,VODQGV ² 7UDFNLQJ )$2 5HSRUW RI WKH ([SHUW &RQVXOWDWLRQ RQ %HVW 3UDFWLFHV IRU 6DIHW\\ DW 6HD LQ WKH )LVKHULHV 6HFWRU 5RPH ² 1RYHPEHU )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 5RPH ,WDO\\ IWSIWSIDRRUJGRFUHSIDRLHLHSGI 5LFH -DQG *DUFLD 6 )LVKHULHV IRRG VHFXULW\\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG ELRGLYHUVLW\\ &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH VHFWRU DQG SHUVSHFWLYHV RQ HPHUJLQJ LVVXHV ,&(6 -RXUQDO RI 0DULQH 6FLHQFH ² Health Life 50% 10% 40% 3 2000 100,000 60 150,000 25 10 5 40 expectancy Index a 0.48 0.57 0.92 0.94 0 0.1 0.29 0.2 0.56 0.6 0.54 0.52 1 0.96 0.29 0.27 0.57 0.54 0.72 0.59 0.89 0.91 0.64 0.68 0.77 0.81 0.71 0.75 0.88 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.8 0.78 0.63 0.58 0.68 0.71 0.4 0.44 DF SII NSP 10,000 1 2000 100,000 20 150,000 8 3 2 13 0.86 3HUFHQWDJH RI FRDVWDO ¿VKHU\\ Tonnes Production (tonnes per km 2 per year) Reef area (km 2 ) Popn in 2010 Total fish per person in 2010 (kg) Popn in 2100 DF (kg) (kg) (kg) (kg) in 2100 tuna SII per person NSP non-Total fish 0.90 5RPH ,WDO\\ 3DVFDO 1 &RVW%HQHÀW $QDO\\VLV RI &RPPXQLW\\EDVHG 0DULQH 3URWHFWHG $UHDV &DVH ² :+2 7RZDUGV D )RRG 6HFXUH 3DFLÀF )UDPHZRUN IRU $FWLRQ RQ )RRG 6HFXULW\\ LQ WKH 3DFLÀF :RUOG +HDOWK 2UJDQL]DWLRQ 0DQLOD 3KLOLSSLQHV *LOOHWW 5 DQG /LJKWIRRW & 7KH &RQWULEXWLRQ RI )LVKHULHV WR WKH (FRQRPLHV RI 3DFLÀF ,VODQG &RXQWULHV 3DFLÀF 6WXGLHV 6HULHV $VLDQ 'HYHORSPHQW %DQN 0DQLOD 3KLOLSSLQHV +DOO 6-&OLPDWH FKDQJH DQG RWKHU H[WHUQDO GULYHUV LQ VPDOOVFDOH ÀVKHULHV 3UDFWLFDO VWHSV IRU UHVSRQGLQJ ,Q 5 3RPHUR\\ DQG 1/ $QGUHZ HGV 0DQDJLQJ 6PDOO 6FDOH )LVKHULHV )UDPHZRUNV DQG $SSURDFKHV IRU WKH 'HYHORSLQJ :RUOG &$%, /RQGRQ 8QLWHG .LQJGRP SS ² $OOLVRQ (+ %pQp & DQG $QGUHZ 1/ 3RYHUW\\ UHGXFWLRQ DV D PHDQV WR HQKDQFH UHVLOLHQFH LQ VPDOOVFDOH ÀVKHULHV ,Q 5 3RPHUR\\ DQG 1/ $QGUHZ HGV 0DQDJLQJ 6PDOO 6FDOH )LVKHULHV )UDPHZRUNV DQG $SSURDFKHV IRU WKH 'HYHORSLQJ :RUOG &$%, /RQGRQ 8QLWHG .LQJGRP SS ² :LOVRQ -DQG 0F&R\\ 0 6WXG\\ RI WKH ,PSDFW RI (QHUJ\\ 3ULFH )OXFWXDWLRQV RQ )LVKHULHV LQ WKH 3DFLÀF ZLWK (PSKDVLV RQ WKH 7XQD ,QGXVWU\\ 7KH :RUOG %DQN :DVKLQJWRQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV RI $PHULFD *LOOHWW 5 6HD 6DIHW\\ LQ WKH 3DFLÀF ,VODQGV 7KH 5HODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ 7XQD )LVKHU\\ 0DQDJHPHQW DQG 6HD 6DIHW\\ )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV Education Literacy 0.99 0.99 0.62 0.85 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.95 0.99 nea 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 15-24 years Primary school enrolment 0.94 0.99 0.77 0.94 0.93 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.90 0.60 1.00 0.93 nea 1.00 0.99 1.00 0.90 1.00 0.95 1.00 0.99 Annual growth rate (period) Adaptive capacity (AC)* Governance index c Index b 0.97 0.32 0.99 0.43 0.67 0.26 0.88 0.33 0.89 0.59 0.97 0.56 0.97 0.72 0.97 0.55 0.95 0.51 0.86 0.56 0.97 0.59 0.97 0.59 nea 0.76 0.99 0.38 0.99 0.43 0.99 0.38 0.96 0.63 0.99 0.75 0.98 0.41 0.99 0.58 0.99 0.43 Scenario Freshwater fisheries DF NSP non-tuna SII West** East*** B1/A2 2035 -2 to -5% -4% -3% 0% +2.5% B1 2100* -20% -10 to -15% -4% -5% +2.5 to +7.5% A2 2100 -20 to -50% -10 to -25% -8% -10% +2.5 to +12.5% growth rate Rate of change of Component of coastal fisheries )ULHGPDQ . (ULNVVRQ . 7DUG\\ ( DQG 3DNR . 0DQDJHPHQW RI VHD FXFXPEHU VWRFNV %DUQHWW -)RRG VHFXULW\\ DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH LQ WKH 6RXWK 3DFLÀF 3DFLÀF (FRORJLVW DOVR SURYLGHV VHYHUDO 3,&7V ZLWK WKH RSSRUWXQLW\\ WR LQFUHDVH DFFHVV WR ÀVK WKURXJK 3DUHWL 6 $ WXQD FDUWHO\" ,VODQGV %XVLQHVV 0DJD]LQH -XQH ² .LQFK -3XUFHOO 6 8WKLFNH 6 DQG )ULHGPDQ . 3RSXODWLRQ VWDWXV ÀVKHULHV DQG WUDGH RI VHD FXFXPEHUV LQ WKH :HVWHUQ &HQWUDO 3DFLÀF ,Q 9 7RUDO*UDQGD $ /RYDWHOOL DQG 0 9DVFRQFHOORV HGV 6HD &XFXPEHUV $ *OREDO 5HYLHZ RI )LVKHULHV DQG 7UDGH )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 5RPH ,WDO\\ SS ² 1HZWRQ . &RWH ,0 3LOOLQJ *0 -HQQLQJV 6 DQG 'XOY\\ 1. &XUUHQW DQG IXWXUH VXVWDLQDELOLW\\ RI LVODQG FRUDO UHHI ÀVKHULHV &XUUHQW %LRORJ\\ ² .URQHQ 0 0DJURQ ) 0F$UGOH % DQG 9XQLVHD $ 5HHI ÀQÀVKLQJ SUHVVXUH ULVN PRGHO IRU 3DFLÀF ,VODQG FRXQWULHV DQG WHUULWRULHV )LVKHULHV 5HVHDUFK ² )ULHGPDQ . 3XUFHOO 6 %HOO -DQG +DLU & 6HD &XFXPEHU )LVKHULHV $ 0DQDJHU•V 7RROER[ $XVWUDOLDQ &HQWUH IRU ,QWHUQDWLRQDO $JULFXOWXUDO 5HVHDUFK &DQEHUUD $XVWUDOLD .DXIPDQQ ' .UDD\\ $ DQG 0DVWUX]]L 0 *RYHUQDQFH 0DWWHUV 9,, $JJUHJDWH DQG ,QGLYLGXDO *RYHUQDQFH ,QGLFDWRUV ² 7KH :RUOG %DQN :DVKLQJWRQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV RI $PHULFD 7XUQHU %/ .DVSHUVRQ 5( 0DWVRQ 3$ 0F&DUWK\\ --DQG RWKHUV $ IUDPHZRUN IRU YXOQHUDELOLW\\ DQDO\\VLV LQ VXVWDLQDELOLW\\ VFLHQFH 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 1DWLRQDO $FDGHP\\ RI AC index Economic 0.49 0.84 0.26 0.35 0.53 0.52 0.85 0.45 0.52 0.52 0.72 0.63 0.45 0.60 0.77 0.62 0.61 0.58 0.54 0.51 0.70 Production (tonnes per km 2 per year) Reef area (km 2 ) Popn in 2010 Total fish per person in 2010 (kg) Popn in 2100 DF a (kg) NSP non-tuna b (kg) SII c (kg) Total fish per person in 2100 (kg) development d 1 2000 100,000 20 150,000 7 3 2 12 6FLHQFHV RI WKH 86$ ² 9LQFHQW . 8QFHUWDLQW\\ LQ DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\\ DQG WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI VFDOH *OREDO (QYLURQPHQWDO &KDQJH+XPDQ DQG 3ROLF\\ 'LPHQVLRQV ² 1RUPDQ/RSH] $ 3DVFRH 6 DQG +REGD\\ $-(FRQRPLF LPSDFWV RI LJQRULQJ FOLPDWH FKDQJH IRU $XVWUDOLDQ ÀVKHULHV DQG DVVRFLDWHG VHFWRUV 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH WK %LHQQLDO &RQIHUHQFH RI WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO ,QVWLWXWH RI )LVKHULHV (FRQRPLFV DQG 7UDGH 0RQWSHOOLHU )UDQFH Size of economy GDP per person Index 3175 0.09 29,898 1.00 991 0.01 753 0.00 2127 0.05 2183 0.05 22,661 0.75 653 0 2851 0.08 2807 0.07 12,638 0.41 8423 0.27 6995 0.22 8553 0.27 22,427 0.74 5828 0.18 2872 0.08 1000 0.01 2319 0.06 1831 0.04 14,552 0.47 3 2000 100,000 60 150,000 20 9 5 34 5 2000 100,000 100 150,000 33 15 8 56 D ') [ E 163 QRQWXQD [ F 6,, [ Annual growth rate 797 797 "}],"sieverID":"f23e7882-231b-46f8-a817-58df5158e880","abstract":"Average annual catch (tonnes) Average annual catch value (USD million)** Average port landings (tonnes)*** National fleet Foreign fleet National fleet Foreign fleet National fleet Foreign fleet EEZ Region EEZ EEZ Region EEZ Melanesia"} \ No newline at end of file